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So I hope this particular post and my other posts will serve in some ways to “inoculate” church members against the intellectual dishonesty of cherry-picking, strengthen their faith, and help honest investigators see some of the breadth and depth of evidence that Joseph Smith was indeed a prophet…s...

What's the chance that an apple would fall to the ground if you dropped it? Well, the apple is made of at least a thousand little chunks of apple. At any moment each one of them could move in any direction. There are a lot of different directions in three-dimensional space, so the chance of each pi...

Gadianton, I'm traveling atm, will respond when I can. Though looks like maybe your question was answered already. This thing is a mess. I'm resisting spending more than a few minutes reading the paper, but may just have to sit down and slog through it. A more more formal "this is exactly what ...

Again, thanks. Is the lack of independence fatal, or is there a proper way to analyze the probability of non-independent events? Yes, this is achieved through conditional probabilities, P(B|A). Like, what is the probability of going to jail if you robbed a bank. Determining dependency is actually o...

Water Dog wrote:I just realized I'm getting copied on the MI comments. Is Mr. Blanco the guy from reddit? Chino Blanco?

I think so.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Mormon/comment ... _bayesian/

I just realized I'm getting copied on the MI comments. Is Mr. Blanco the guy from reddit? Chino Blanco?

This would be like the flesh eating virus example. Its pointless. the denominator shouldn't be 1, but what else could it be? If the denominator is say, .8, then that means there's a 20% chance that Coe is wrong about volcanoes, and dales assume hes right. I think this is the sort of point Lemmie wa...

could you, or physics guy, or lemmie, maybe analytics, I don't know about his field, comment on the certainty published - 10 ^ 132 (Im not looking at the number exactly right now) and how often legitimate and very well respected scientific findings achieve this level of certainty? For theoretical s...

This paper is nonsense, turns Bayes on its head. I'm sure the math is sound. From my very quick review the level of math they're getting into is nothing more than introductory level. It's a classic case of garbage in, garbage out. They are misapplying the science. Math can be applied to anything. We...

lostindc wrote:I don’t

I don’t want to know his real identity. I just feel bad that he feels he has to hide his identity. He has a good message, he should ride this wave without fear. Be bold, life is short as “F”.

You don't count.