DiscussMormonism.com

Agreed; this was no shining moment for 538 or so many others. I'm curious what your particular issue with 538 was. Assuming Nevada and Michigan finish out the way they are trending their model is going to be nearly entirely spot on. Results look like they are going to fall right into the distributi...

Biden is currently down over 550,000 votes in Pennsylvania, which is a 60,000 improvement from what it was a few hours ago. This is supposed to be a close one because there are so many outstanding votes in heavily Democrat areas. What I found interesting is that Biden is currently underperforming b...

You're absolutely right about all of this. I am still pulling for Biden; I haven't given up yet. My comments this morning reflect how I feel about the race being close. It shouldn't be this close if humans are as smart as we tend to brag. It should have been over in Florida. To me, this is clear pr...

The most depressing thing about the results so far is that it's close. There are still massive numbers of idiots in this country. Humanity's intelligence cannot be judged based on the achievements of our scientists and innovators. It has to be judged based on everyone. With that in mind, this speci...

I certainly hope you're right about Biden winning all the states you indicated, but doesn't he have a better than even chance of winning Florida and Maine as well? And according so some polls, even Texas is not out of the question. What a wonderful blowout that would be, if it happened! Jaime Harri...

Even if something moderately effective at persuading swing voters is produced at the last minute, its potential impact will be considerably diminished by the rather large proportion of voters who voted some time ago, and whose vote is therefore unaffected by what happens in the last days of the cam...

It's funny; I was immediately reluctant to play this game due to some magical thinking on my own part: I didn't want my predictions to influence the outcome... like there is any relationship between the two. Some butterfly-effectesque ripples of your high hopes sealing the victory for Trump? I resp...

I'm curious how the posters here expect election night to shake out and so I'm going to put mine out there and invite others to join in. We're down to the wire and a bunch of fresh polling has dropped in the last day or so so I'm not expecting any major polling shifts in the runup. Obviously if you ...