State of the Pandemic

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Binger
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Re: State of the Pandemic

Post by Binger »

drumdude wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:00 pm
Vēritās wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:42 pm


Probably a typo, meant 67th. But the point still stands either way. There are 66 countries with higher vaccination rates.
And how much does that matter right now?

Capture.JPG

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm
Finally.

Without common denominator and numerator criteria the rank is garbage. But the greater point is the one you are making here.
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Re: State of the Pandemic

Post by Res Ipsa »

drumdude wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:00 pm
Vēritās wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:42 pm


Probably a typo, meant 67th. But the point still stands either way. There are 66 countries with higher vaccination rates.
And how much does that matter right now?

Capture.JPG

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm
You omitted a critical piece of information when you posted that graph. It's the warning about relying on the right end of the graph:

Image

The graph is updated weekly. I'd be willing to bet you a ten-spot that within the next eight weeks that graph will show excess deaths for the week ending July 9.

Disinformation indeed.

ETA: as to why we should care? The same anti-vaccine cranks are promoting World Ivermectin Day, telling all their readers about the wonders of Ivermectin EXCEPT for the fact that it doesn't work on Covid. In fact, they're having a whole Ivermectin Week!

Image

Except, as is shown by the WHO COVID treatment protocol I posted upthread, WHO doesn't recommend taking Ivermectin for COVID infection (other than as part of a clinical trial). But, it's a wonder drug for eliminating River Blindness.https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-202 ... challenges
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drumdude
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Re: State of the Pandemic

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We'll see. We're in a trough, and I hope it stays. The vaccine caused the first trough (thank God), and the Delta variant caused the wave after that. I think another Delta-like variant is the much bigger threat than a bunch of rednecks taking Ivermectin instead of the 2 year old outdated vaccine.

I am very surprised that the mRNA vaccines aren't adapting to variants as fast as was promised in 2020. We're 2 years in, and 3 or 4 variants later still using the vaccine for the original strain. Breakthrough infections are rampant, and fortunately mild. If we see another deadly wave like Delta which has the resistance like Omicron BA5, we're going to be in bad shape.
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canpakes
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Re: State of the Pandemic

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:01 pm
The same anti-vaccine cranks are promoting World Ivermectin Day, telling all their readers about the wonders of Ivermectin EXCEPT for the fact that it doesn't work on Covid. In fact, they're having a whole Ivermectin Week!

Image

Except, as is shown by the WHO COVID treatment protocol I posted upthread, WHO doesn't recommend taking Ivermectin for COVID infection (other than as part of a clinical trial).
I’ll never understand the weird dishonesty from ivermectin promoters in implying that ivermectin is something that the WHO will recommend for COVID. I get that certain folks want to push it for that, but those folks should be up front with what the WHO has actually published in the 'em guide about ivermectin’s preferred uses.

As you mention, COVID isn’t on the list for applications of ivermectin:

https://list.essentialmeds.org/medicines/58
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Res Ipsa
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Re: State of the Pandemic

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drumdude wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:43 am
We'll see. We're in a trough, and I hope it stays. The vaccine caused the first trough (thank God), and the Delta variant caused the wave after that. I think another Delta-like variant is the much bigger threat than a bunch of rednecks taking Ivermectin instead of the 2 year old outdated vaccine.

I am very surprised that the mRNA vaccines aren't adapting to variants as fast as was promised in 2020. We're 2 years in, and 3 or 4 variants later still using the vaccine for the original strain. Breakthrough infections are rampant, and fortunately mild. If we see another deadly wave like Delta which has the resistance like Omicron BA5, we're going to be in bad shape.
We’re actually beyond the trough and on the front side of the BA.5 wave in most states. I checked today and BA.5 is estimated to be over 70% of new infections in the last week.

In terms of fatalities, I think I read that Omicron killed more Americans than Delta. It infected so many more people than Delta that it overcame the reduced rate of fatality.

The original vaccines are not two years out of date. The antibody protection will be less, but the protection against severe disease and death due to T cells is still pretty robust. I don’t care what color their necks are. Around 1/3 of eligible adults still aren’t vaccinated, many because they’ve been misinformed about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines and been misled about the effectiveness of Ivermectin and other snake oil remedies promoted by hucksters. No American deserves to suffer serious illness, disability and death because they persuaded by charlatans to reject their best protection against serious disease and its effects.

Part of the issue with changing the vaccine is deciding when it makes sense to start the process. Also, while people could speculate on how long the process would take, no one knew when the vaccines were released how the virus would mutate. It may well be that the immunity escape mutations that appear in Omicron make it more difficult to create an effective tweak to the vaccines. The mRNA vaccines are new and SARS-Covi-2 are new, so what appears quick and easy in theory may not be in practice.

The word is that Omicron targeted vaccine should be available this fall, but we won’t know how effective they will be until trials are run. So, yeah, we’ll have to see. A new variant that can outcompete BA.5 and produces more severe disease is the worst outcome. Radiolab produced a podcast last year that explains why scientists believe that major variants are produced during lengthy infections in immunocompromised folks. It was fascinating and a little scary. It’s another reason for trying to keep the rate of transmission as low as practicable.
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Re: State of the Pandemic

Post by drumdude »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:10 am

Part of the issue with changing the vaccine is deciding when it makes sense to start the process.

A new variant that can outcompete BA.5 and produces more severe disease is the worst outcome.
I think it makes sense to release the updated vaccine only if this worse case outcome happens. Otherwise people may get complacent and skip that vaccine when it finally becomes critical for everyone to take it again.
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Re: State of the Pandemic

Post by Res Ipsa »

drumdude wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 5:43 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:10 am

Part of the issue with changing the vaccine is deciding when it makes sense to start the process.

A new variant that can outcompete BA.5 and produces more severe disease is the worst outcome.
I think it makes sense to release the updated vaccine only if this worse case outcome happens. Otherwise people may get complacent and skip that vaccine when it finally becomes critical for everyone to take it again.
That’s the dilemma. The updated vaccines being worked on now are tailored to Omicron. The significant variants so far are not descendants of each other. So, there is no guarantee there that a vaccine targeted at Omicron will be effective against a more deadly variant.
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Binger
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Re: State of the Pandemic

Post by Binger »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:19 pm
drumdude wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 5:43 pm


I think it makes sense to release the updated vaccine only if this worse case outcome happens. Otherwise people may get complacent and skip that vaccine when it finally becomes critical for everyone to take it again.
That’s the dilemma. The updated vaccines being worked on now are tailored to Omicron. The significant variants so far are not descendants of each other. So, there is no guarantee there that a vaccine targeted at Omicron will be effective against a more deadly variant.
In other words, won’t work.
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Re: State of the Pandemic

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The worst outcome is a vaccine that only targets the non-lethal variants and lets the worst variants leak on through and mutate away. Even worse worst if the vaccine makes transmission more likely, not less.
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Re: State of the Pandemic

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Binger wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:55 pm
The worst outcome is a vaccine that only targets the non-lethal variants and lets the worst variants leak on through and mutate away. Even worse worst if the vaccine makes transmission more likely, not less.

Turns out that the worst outcome would have been no vaccine, given that having one allowed for some folks to escape infections, more serious infections, or death.

It also turns out that a virus will mutate anyway, regardless of if there’s a vaccine present or not. And it turns out that some coronavirus variations did indeed appear before vaccine rollouts.
The Alpha and Beta variants were designated as VOC by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Dec. 18, 2020. Meanwhile, the Gamma variant, which was first detected in Brazil, was listed as a VOC on Jan. 11, 2021.

The Delta variant, which was first detected in India, was designated a VOC in April 2021 (here). However, it was not caused by mass rollouts of vaccines, which began largely from the start of 2021.


The vaccines have also not caused the virus itself to mutate.

“Virus mutations arise when the virus is replicating in a cell. None of the available vaccines contain live virus, so they cannot directly be the source of a viral variant,” Grier said.

“For the most part, the coronavirus vaccines reduce the risk of getting infected, and with fewer infections, there is less replicating virus so the chance of producing new variants decreases as well,” she added.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL1N2OZ1PU
The worst outcome might be hysterical folks on the Internet shouting about ‘leakiness’ as a cause for something, when it isn’t.
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