Where is it headed?

[_ajax18]

I'm interested to hear your predictions for Mormonism in 50 years, and maybe 100 or 200 years. Do you think it will grow inside the U.S.? I think they have so much money that they could set up a lot of puppet workers in Latin America and other poor countries now that most financially well off people want nothing to do with joining the Mormon Church. Capital makes money far better than labor. What percentage of their youth will they be able to hide the truth from? I know it's a big concern they have.

It's funny. I confided to my wife that I wasn't sure if the Book of Mormon was historical. She got upset that I had questioned it, but then informed me that she never believed it or any other scripture literally either and thought anyone who did was foolish to do so. Granted she's a convert, but it's funny to me that she already came to that conclusion without spending any time reading about it. To her historicity was a nonissue. To me it meant everything. Church for her was a necessary moral institution for her and everyone else. I wonder how many of these Mormons hold callings and work within the Church. What percentage of Mormondom will come to this conclusion once the older generation starts to die off, kind of like the focus against evolution seemed to die off with Joseph Fielding Smith.

Besides those who have went back to evagelical Christianism, have any of you found success in having your own beliefs outside of Church again? I could do this very easily myself now, but is it possible to raise children properly without the help of the Church institution? I know there are a lot of negatives to Church, but morally I thought it was mostly a good influence in my life.

[_Runtu]

I'm interested to hear your predictions for Mormonism in 50 years, and maybe 100 or 200 years. Do you think it will grow inside the U.S.? I think they have so much money that they could set up a lot of puppet workers in Latin America and other poor countries now that most financially well off people want nothing to do with joining the Mormon Church. Capital makes money far better than labor. What percentage of their youth will they be able to hide the truth from? I know it's a big concern they have.

It's funny. I confided to my wife that I wasn't sure if the Book of Mormon was historical. She got upset that I had questioned it, but then informed me that she never believed it or any other scripture literally either and thought anyone who did was foolish to do so. Granted she's a convert, but it's funny to me that she already came to that conclusion without spending any time reading about it. To her historicity was a nonissue. To me it meant everything. Church for her was a necessary moral institution for her and everyone else. I wonder how many of these Mormons hold callings and work within the Church. What percentage of Mormondom will come to this conclusion once the older generation starts to die off, kind of like the focus against evolution seemed to die off with Joseph Fielding Smith.

Besides those who have went back to evagelical Christianism, have any of you found success in having your own beliefs outside of Church again? I could do this very easily myself now, but is it possible to raise children properly without the help of the Church institution? I know there are a lot of negatives to Church, but morally I thought it was mostly a good influence in my life.

Here's my prediction. In the developed world, the church is in decline, particularly in Europe. In North America, growth is flat and will be so for a while, and then America will follow Europe's lead, although birthrates among the core membership will keep the church going. The church simply isn't flexible enough to deal with the flow of information that is now out there about the church. Top-down authoritarian organizations aren't equipped to deal with situations like the one the church faces today.

Africa and Latin America will continue to post high growth numbers, but even 20 years ago when I was a missionary and the church was in its growth heyday, the church in Latin America was a nearly dead organism: empty chapels, massive numbers of inactive members, and endemic corruption. From my own research and conversations I've had with a lot of members from Latin America, not much has changed in 20 years except the numbers of people the church counts as members.

It's not going to collapse and die, but it's long past its prime in terms of growth.

[_ajax18]

I think you're right. Maybe I just yearned to see it all break down so that exmormons could get their families back, but that's not really logical.

I guess it won't be a dramatic change. Perhaps it's already started by the Church deemphasizing historicity of scripture and basically refusing to comment on the probelmatic areas. Before long, the majority of the younger membership will realize that the Book of Mormon is not historical any more than the creation story, but it will be a nonissue.

I don't know if they'll ever quit knocking doors, though I'd like to see it. I think they'd be smart to quit tracting in areas that have been tracted out many times with no success.

[_harmony]

I'm interested to hear your predictions for Mormonism in 50 years, and maybe 100 or 200 years. Do you think it will grow inside the U.S.? I think they have so much money that they could set up a lot of puppet workers in Latin America and other poor countries now that most financially well off people want nothing to do with joining the Mormon Church. Capital makes money far better than labor. What percentage of their youth will they be able to hide the truth from? I know it's a big concern they have.

Within two generations, the church will make some radical changes. Women will be priesthood holders, the books will be open for inspection by anyone interested, the Book of Abraham will be kicked to the curb, Sec 132 will be taken out of the canon, that which the older generation now holds to as historical fact will be shown to be historical fiction, the endowment will change again, garments will change again, and the church will radically restructure the way it presents itself.

Why? Because the upcoming generation (Generation Y) approaches life totally differently than the current leaders (re: old) do. Generation Y has been raised to approach all questions using critical thinking skills, have been taught the value of research, know where to find information, have a balanced concept of gender and gender roles, and apply the same techniques to their religion as they do to their relationships and careers.

Besides those who have went back to evagelical Christianism, have any of you found success in having your own beliefs outside of Church again? I could do this very easily myself now, but is it possible to raise children properly without the help of the Church institution? I know there are a lot of negatives to Church, but morally I thought it was mostly a good influence in my life.

Of course it's possible to raise children properly, instilling in them good values and good citizenship, without the LDS churc. Such a concept is ludicrous and could only come from someone inside Utah or southern Idaho. Outside the Zion Curtain, several million families live good upstanding lives every day, raising their children to be good upstanding people. It's only behind the Zion Curtain that anyone would even think to ask such a question.

[_ajax18]

Of course it's possible to raise children properly, instilling in them good values and good citizenship, without the LDS churc. Such a concept is ludicrous and could only come from someone inside Utah or southern Idaho. Outside the Zion Curtain, several million families live good upstanding lives every day, raising their children to be good upstanding people. It's only behind the Zion Curtain that anyone would even think to ask such a question.

Well, I'm from the east coast and I grew up with mostly nonmembers. I'll admit that there are Mormons who don't practice their religion, but I think Mormonism was far more effective than most religions at instilling good behavior into the children. I'm not the only one who saw it that way. A lot of nonmembers have told me the same. A lot of my Methodist and Catholic neighbors wound up on drugs, in jail, or worse and truthfully religion didn't play much of a role in how they behaved. I think the evangelicals seemed to turn out well and were doing a pretty good job at living a good life in my view, but of course they had hokie things about their religion too.

[_harmony]

Well, I'm from the east coast and I grew up with mostly nonmembers. I'll admit that there are Mormons who don't practice their religion, but I think Mormonism was far more effective than most religions at instilling good behavior into the children. I'm not the only one who saw it that way. A lot of nonmembers have told me the same. A lot of my Methodist and Catholic neighbors wound up on drugs, in jail, or worse and truthfully religion didn't play much of a role in how they behaved. I think the evangelicals seemed to turn out well and were doing a pretty good job at living a good life in my view, but of course they had hokie things about their religion too.

It's not Mormonism, per se... it's the impact a high degree of parental influence and religiosity has on the family unit you're talking about. Parents that get drunk every Friday night and go to mass twice a year aren't going to turn out the same Catholic as those that have a glass of wine at dinner and go to mass every day or even every Saturday night or Sunday morning. Mormon parents tends to instill a high degree of religiosity in their families not because they've found the magic ingredient, but because they instill family values and high religiosity as part of their normal lives (inactives are effected similiarly to low religiosity in other religions).

If you want the same value system as a typical Mormon family, do the same things: go to the same church every Sunday (so your children and your family feel part of a group), put your teenagers in the Young Life youth group for after school (so they mingle freely with friends who have similiar beliefs), join the women's Bible study group (so the wife has friends within the group and feels comfortable talking about service, family issues, and activities in the neighborhood), join the men's service group (for the same reason), have family scripture reading and family prayer (children generally do as their parents do), participate in family activities once a week (builds a reserve of family memories), teach your children the values you want them to have by exhibiting them yourself, and protect your family from harm (the goal of Join-with-the-Saints).

It's not rocket science and the LDS church didn't discover it; it's been around for generations. It's a matter of discipline (you'll have to supply your own internal discipline though, whereas LDS members get their discipline externally, from SLC) and living the life you want your children to live. The LDS church doesn't have the market on good family values cornered, no matter how they'd like you to think they do.

Mormon parents lose many children also. You don't hear much about them though, because the church tends to keep those stats very close to the chest. A study I read that was done about 20 years ago by Rodney Stark If I recall correctly asked 3500 Seminary students on the East Coast (a low religiosity place if ever there was one) about several factors that included high religiosity in them, things like family prayer, physical discipline by parents, numbers of sexual partners, drugs, alcohol, cheating on tests, etc. The numbers were amazing (25% of the Seminary students had had sex, 75% had cheated on a test, etc). Church leaders were appalled (hells bells! 25% of our teenagers had had sex!); others were amazed (how had we managed to make it so only 25% of your teenagers had had sex?). It's all a matter of perspective.

[_ajax18]

Very good point and thanks for your input. That's the same thing my wife says is that she needs the external discipline of an organization. Just like she needs an exercise class to get her to exercise. I personally hate the external stuff. I exercise on my own. Truth is I'm more uplifted by reading scriptures on my own and maybe even just going to a nature site rather than a temple. Yet I still have to consider others in a family situation.

[_Jason Bourne]

Within two generations, the church will make some radical changes. Women will be priesthood holders, the books will be open for inspection by anyone interested, the Book of Abraham will be kicked to the curb, Sec 132 will be taken out of the canon, that which the older generation now holds to as historical fact will be shown to be historical fiction, the endowment will change again, garments will change again, and the church will radically restructure the way it presents itself.

Why? Because the upcoming generation (Generation Y) approaches life totally differently than the current leaders (re: old) do. Generation Y has been raised to approach all questions using critical thinking skills, have been taught the value of research, know where to find information, have a balanced concept of gender and gender roles, and apply the same techniques to their religion as they do to their relationships and careers.

What age group is considered gen Y?

Jason

[_Jason Bourne]

Well, I'm from the east coast and I grew up with mostly nonmembers. I'll admit that there are Mormons who don't practice their religion, but I think Mormonism was far more effective than most religions at instilling good behavior into the children. I'm not the only one who saw it that way. A lot of nonmembers have told me the same. A lot of my Methodist and Catholic neighbors wound up on drugs, in jail, or worse and truthfully religion didn't play much of a role in how they behaved. I think the evangelicals seemed to turn out well and were doing a pretty good job at living a good life in my view, but of course they had hokie things about their religion too.

It's not Mormonism, per se... it's the impact a high degree of parental influence and religiosity has on the family unit you're talking about. Parents that get drunk every Friday night and go to mass twice a year aren't going to turn out the same Catholic as those that have a glass of wine at dinner and go to mass every day or even every Saturday night or Sunday morning. Mormon parents tends to instill a high degree of religiosity in their families not because they've found the magic ingredient, but because they instill family values and high religiosity as part of their normal lives (inactives are effected similiarly to low religiosity in other religions).

If you want the same value system as a typical Mormon family, do the same things: go to the same church every Sunday (so your children and your family feel part of a group), put your teenagers in the Young Life youth group for after school (so they mingle freely with friends who have similiar beliefs), join the women's Bible study group (so the wife has friends within the group and feels comfortable talking about service, family issues, and activities in the neighborhood), join the men's service group (for the same reason), have family scripture reading and family prayer (children generally do as their parents do), participate in family activities once a week (builds a reserve of family memories), teach your children the values you want them to have by exhibiting them yourself, and protect your family from harm (the goal of Join-with-the-Saints).

It's not rocket science and the LDS church didn't discover it; it's been around for generations. It's a matter of discipline (you'll have to supply your own internal discipline though, whereas LDS members get their discipline externally, from SLC) and living the life you want your children to live. The LDS church doesn't have the market on good family values cornered, no matter how they'd like you to think they do.

Mormon parents lose many children also. You don't hear much about them though, because the church tends to keep those stats very close to the chest. A study I read that was done about 20 years ago by Rodney Stark If I recall correctly asked 3500 Seminary students on the East Coast (a low religiosity place if ever there was one) about several factors that included high religiosity in them, things like family prayer, physical discipline by parents, numbers of sexual partners, drugs, alcohol, cheating on tests, etc. The numbers were amazing (25% of the Seminary students had had sex, 75% had cheated on a test, etc). Church leaders were appalled (hells bells! 25% of our teenagers had had sex!); others were amazed (how had we managed to make it so only 25% of your teenagers had had sex?). It's all a matter of perspective.

Can you provide a link or something more on this? I am not dounting. I am aware of two studies of teen behaior. One by the Church in the mid 1990's. It was quite mattter of fact and examined teen behavior among LDS teens in the Pacific NW, the East and Utah. Eastern teens tended to have more trouble with the things the church teaches to avoid, but not be a great number. Then another group in the early 2000's did a similar study among varying religions. Evangelical teens and LDS teens scored the best behavior and both were very close. I seem to recall that the numbers of bad sexual activity were more in the 12%-15% range but this is all from memory. 25% seeems pretty good especially compared to society as a whole. And while you are correct that it is not necessarily the LDS Church per say but emphasized religous behavior and teaching. But the LDS Church does seem more effective in employing it.

Jason

[_harmony]

Can you provide a link or something more on this? I am not dounting. I am aware of two studies of teen behaior. One by the Church in the mid 1990's. It was quite mattter of fact and examined teen behavior among LDS teens in the Pacific NW, the East and Utah. Eastern teens tended to have more trouble with the things the church teaches to avoid, but not be a great number. Then another group in the early 2000's did a similar study among varying religions. Evangelical teens and LDS teens scored the best behavior and both were very close. I seem to recall that the numbers of bad sexual activity were more in the 12%-15% range but this is all from memory. 25% seeems pretty good especially compared to society as a whole. And while you are correct that it is not necessarily the LDS Church per say but emphasized religous behavior and teaching. But the LDS Church does seem more effective in employing it.

Jason

The study was published in JSTOR and isn't available on line. I was studying sociology at the time (with Juliann's favorite professor, actually), so had access to the database and more time for reading sociological studies then. The study is called "Religiosity and Delinquency among LDS Adolescents" by Bruce A. Chadwick and Brent L. Top, published in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Vol. 32, No. 1 (Mar., 1993), pp. 51-67doi:10.2307/1386913. If you can get ahold of the study, it's fascinating stuff. It compared East Coast LDS students' results with the 1984 Stark study results from California, Utah, and Idaho.