The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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High Spy
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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 3:51 pm
I would answer your question “it depends.” But before we get there, I don’t understand why flipping a coin five times with the result HHHHH is one the least expected outcomes. So I’m going take baby steps with my questions.

Are we in agreement that, before I flip the coins, there is a 1/32 chance that the result will be: HHHHH?

Seeing 1, 2, 3, or 4 total heads in the group of five is more expected, assuming the order doesn't matter.

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 doth equal 1/32, so yes 1:32 chance is correct. :geek:

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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

Post by Res Ipsa »

High Spy wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 6:12 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 3:51 pm
I would answer your question “it depends.” But before we get there, I don’t understand why flipping a coin five times with the result HHHHH is one the least expected outcomes. So I’m going take baby steps with my questions.

Are we in agreement that, before I flip the coins, there is a 1/32 chance that the result will be: HHHHH?

Seeing 1, 2, 3, or 4 heads in the group of five is more expected, assuming the order doesn't matter.

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 doth equal 1/32, so yes 1:32 chance is correct. :geek:

Ok, I think that “assuming the order doesn’t matter” may be significant.

I’m assuming that you would agree that, if I flip the coin five times, the following results are equally probable:

HHHHH
HHHHT

Yet if we choose to ignore the order of results, the result is:

Five heads, which is more probable than four heads and a tail.

Yet, it’s exactly the same set of coin flips.

What about this one:

HTHTH

Is this one of the least expected outcomes?
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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 6:26 pm

HTHTH

Is this one of the least expected outcomes?
Yes, if the order of the flips is considered, as would be the case if these were coin tosses in NFL games.

3*8** Knight Lion, but not Nite Lion. 🐳 gbng

Everybody's heard the whale and 8 are linked. :lol:

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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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High Spy wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 6:37 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 6:26 pm

HTHTH

Is this one of the least expected outcomes?
Yes, if the order of the flips is considered, as would be the case if these were coin tosses in NFL games.

If we consider the order of the flips, aren’t all possible outcomes equally likely?
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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 7:54 pm

If we consider the order of the flips, aren’t all possible outcomes equally likely?
Yes, each expected outcome is 1/32.
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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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Gadianton wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 5:33 pm
HIgh Spy wrote:The simple answer is that it's four times more likely than either of those.
Nice. But what about Q?

Such a simple letter...
Q is the seventeenth letter of the alphabet, so it can’t represent the month of a particular event, using the simplest conversion of A=1, B=2, etc.
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Everybody's heard the whale and 8 are linked. :lol:

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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

Post by Res Ipsa »

High Spy wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 8:16 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 7:54 pm

If we consider the order of the flips, aren’t all possible outcomes equally likely?
Yes, each expected outcome is 1/32.
OK, so thinking about HTHTH,

If we choose to describe it as the result of each flip in the order they occurred, the outcome is no less expected than any other outcome — all outcomes are equally improbable, but if we flip the coins, there is a 100% chance that one of those improbable outcomes will happen.

But if we choose to describe the same coin flips this way: three heads and two tails, the probability rises from 1/32 to 10/32 — around 1/3.

If we choose to describe the same coin flips as two of one result and three of another, the probability soars to 20/32 — almost 2/3.

But If we describe the same set of flips as alternating results, the probability falls to 1/16.

All of these descriptions of the results of the five flips are accurate. But which one we choose to use changes the probability from 1/32 to 1/16 to 1/3 to 2/3.

If we are trying to decide whether the result of the flips has some significance beyond random chance, which description is correct and why?
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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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That is, until Q becomes the leader of the world and emancipates us to base 17.
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Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 8:46 pm
High Spy wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 8:16 pm

Yes, each expected outcome is 1/32.
If we are trying to decide whether the result of the flips has some significance beyond random chance, which description is correct and why?
There are two basic ways to assign significance:

1) the flips represent bits of a binary number. (order dependent)

2) poker style where you have full house, 4 of a kind and 5 of a kind. (order independent)

In each case the rank of each face must be defined, does Heads represent 0 or 1, and which is greater.

Does high hand or number win, or are we playing lowball?
3*8** Knight Lion, but not Nite Lion. 🐳 gbng

Everybody's heard the whale and 8 are linked. :lol:

Choose the 🥩
Res Ipsa
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Posts: 5612
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:44 pm
Location: Searching for the missing pieces of the Bothell Codex

Re: The significance of the Mormon Temple Earthquake

Post by Res Ipsa »

High Spy wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 10:12 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 8:46 pm


If we are trying to decide whether the result of the flips has some significance beyond random chance, which description is correct and why?
There are two basic ways to assign significance:

1) the flips represent bits of a binary number. (order dependent)

2) poker style where you have full house, 4 of a kind and 5 of a kind. (order independent)

In each case the rank of each face must be defined, does Heads represent 0 or 1, and which is greater.

Does high hand or number win, or are we playing lowball?
Isn’t there a third? The pattern of alternating results. Does the existence of a pattern in the results have significance beyond that of chance?
he/him
"Everything we see hides another thing, we always want to see what is hidden by what we see."
– Rene Magritte
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