Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by Marcus »

PG wrote: ...The point is not that the Dales' procedures will always wildly overstate or understate probabilities. It can go either way—and it can go by a lot, either way. The point is that grouping or splitting happens at the whim of the authors. So the authors can minimise the impact of adverse evidence as much as they want, by judicious grouping, and maximise the impact of favourable evidence as much as they want, by judicious splitting and ignoring correlations. Heck, they can simply fail to think of a bunch of adverse factors, while racking their brains until they come up with more favourable factors...
Your last sentence describes exactly what they did, in my opinion. They scoured the Book of Mormon and Coe's book to come up with 130 or so points favorable to their hypothesis. In contrast, they only had, If I recall correctly, 15 or so adverse factors, which they accumulated by taking them from an interview someone gave, or something. They certainly did not scour both books for negatives, like they did for positives, which by their own analysis should have been done.

In the end, I found it quite jarring that after all of their cherry-picking and arbitrary weighting, the Dales included this is their paper:
...It is a common error (deliberate or otherwise) to consider only a few pieces of evidence when examining the truth or falsity of a given hypothesis. In the extreme, this practice is called cherry-picking. In cherry-picking, evidence against one’s existing hypothesis is deliberately excluded from consideration. This practice is, of course, dishonest...

These practices of cherry-picking or overweighting/underweighting evidence cannot be allowed in scientific enquiry. They are neither rational nor honest. We must consider all relevant evidence if we hope to make honest, rational decisions...
It boggles the mind that they wrote that into their paper, while so blatantly skewing their data collection.
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by Marcus »

lodo_the_bear wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:38 pm
...especially since Dale and Dale went to the trouble of publishing this one and a follow-up (subtitled "Still the World's Greatest Guesser").
Wow, I was not aware of that. I went looking, and it's quite interesting that the Interpreter did NOT publish the follow up. I found it on B of M Central. Here are the details and the abstract, the paper is at the link. You'll notice it is listed as unpublished.
Tiyle: Joseph Smith: Still the World’s Greatest Guesser (and Getting Better all the Time)

Publication Type: Unpublished

Year of Publication: 2021

Authors: Dale, Bruce E., and Brian M. Dale

Keywords Ancient America; Maya; Mesoamerica; Statistics

Abstract:

The original paper, which this is a follow up to, on can be found here: https://archive.bookofmormoncentral.org ... d-negative

We recently used Bayesian likelihood analysis to examine the number and strength of the correspondences (points of evidence) between the Book of Mormon and Dr. Michael Coe’s book The Maya (9th Edition). Our results provide strong evidence that the Book of Mormon is a non-fictional work accurately depicting the culture, politics, religion, geography, military, technology and other characteristics of a civilization similar to ancient Mesoamerica as understood and described by Dr. Coe. The likelihood that Joseph Smith correctly guessed all these points of evidence is vanishingly small.

https://archive.bookofmormoncentral.org ... r-all-time
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by lodo_the_bear »

I've prepared an appendix that goes into detail on chiasms and whether or not they count as evidence. I'm especially proud of the last paragraph.
---
One of the positive correspondences that Dale and Dale point to is the presence of chiasms in the Book of Mormon. This one warrants some special attention. Like other apologists such as John Welch, Dale and Dale argue that chiasms exist within the Book of Mormon and that the most likely explanation of them is that they were deliberately written by ancient authors following a traditional ancient form. Welch has argued that the chiasms indicate that the Book of Mormon is authentically Semitic in nature, and Dale and Dale argue that this also shows a link between the Maya and ancient Semitic cultures, as the Book of Mormon suggests that there is. I argue that the chiasms in the Book of Mormon are best explained by Joseph Smith copying the Bible, or by natural human tendencies in writing, or unfortunately by apologists trying to see chiasms where there are none.

To the first possibility, that Joseph Smith got chiasms by copying the Bible, Dale and Dale claim that "the Hebrew chiasms and poetic parallelisms in the Old Testament were largely erased by the scholars who translated the King James Bible into English." Many people disagree. In Preserved in Translation, Donald W. Parry claims that the Old Testament has "hundreds of chiasms" and cites a few in the entry on chiasmus. Other people credibly claim to be able to see those chiasms, such as the the people who host Biblical Chiasm Exchange (https://www.chiasmusxchange.com/). They find chiasms that range from small, focused chiasms like Joel 2:27-3:17 to broad chiasms like Exodus 24-40. I invite you to peruse their site to see more of the examples they give. My point in including them here is to show that they are abundant in the Bible, so someone who read the Bible as diligently as Joseph Smith did could have discovered these poetic forms and imitated them on purpose or by accident.

To the second possibility, that chiasms occur naturally, I will point out that chiasms can be found in literature from around the world, including the Quran and Beowulf. (See this article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiastic_structure for more examples.) Humans like symmetry, so we are inclined to put symmetries into what we write. These can be as simple as rhymes, or they can be more complex like mirrored phrases across multiple lines. For an amusing look at other places where chiasms appear, I refer you to Robert Patterson's article, Hebraicisms, Chiasmus and Other Internal Evidence for Ancient Authorship in Green Eggs and Ham. The Maya, the Semites, Joseph Smith, and Dr. Seuss were all human and all inclined to symmetry. Should we be surprised if all of them independently discovered a poetic form that emphasizes symmetry?

To the third possibility, that the chiasms being pointed out are not so chiastic, I point to Robert M. Bowman Jr's article, Alma 36: Ancient Masterpiece Chiasmus or Modern Revivalist Testimony?(https://mit.irr.org/alma-36-ancient-mas ... -testimony) The article makes the case that Alma 36 is not nearly as chiastic as apologists like Dale and Dale have made it out to be. It features repetitions of elements in the wrong places and large volumes of text besides the ones that apologists have fit into the chiastic structure. Given the repetitions in places that don't match chiastic structure, the article argues that many of the repetitions are simply the result of a naturally repetitious writing style. I have written elsewhere, such as in this Reddit post (https://www.reddit.com/r/Mormon/comment ... of_Mormon/), that the Book of Mormon is tedious, featuring many unnecessary repetitions. I invite you to look at the supposed chiasms in the Book of Mormon to see if they are best explained by a deliberate effort to repeat text in a pattern or if they are the result of a tendency to repeat everything.

The presence of chiasms seems to be worthy of further study, but from what we have now, they seem to fall short of being the overwhelming evidence that Dale and Dale claim that they are. Dale and Dale suggest that they should count for a weight of "one in a billion", but I say that we can't even count them as one in fifty.

As a final aside, Dale and Dale conclude their section on chiasms by saying: "We invite Dr. Coe or anyone else to dictate a chiasm like Alma Chapter 36. They can't do it. This is unusual in the extreme." It is indeed difficult to dictate anything like Alma 36, but I don't find that to be compelling evidence of its ancient origins or its divinity. Joseph Smith had many talents that I don't have. For one thing, this man persuaded more than thirty women to marry him. If he could do something that I cannot, that doesn't make him superhuman. Also, I have heard a similar line of reasoning used to defend the Quran. Hamza Andreas Tzortzis's article, "Produce One Chapter Like It": The Miraculous Inimitability of the Quran's Shortest Chapter (https://sapienceinstitute.org/produce-o ... r-like-it/), shares with us the challenge within the Quran to produce anything like what the prophet Muhammad wrote and argues that no one has met the challenge. If difficulty in producing anything like Alma 36 is evidence of its authenticity, is the difficulty in producing anything like the Quran evidence of that book's authenticity? I invite Dale and Dale to take the challenge of the Quran, and then to come back and tell us if they think that the challenge of Alma 36 is still compelling.
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by Physics Guy »

I bet you could dictate a chiasm like Alma 36. Pick a theme, think out a bunch of favourite phrases, and then just riff for a while, with the general idea of bringing it all back to your first point at the end. Mormon apologists might well dismiss your effort as far less chiastic than Alma, but neutral parties who were willing to squint just as much at both texts would probably call it a draw.

If that doesn't work, then just do it again for a few hundred chapters, and let the neutral judges compare your most impressively chiastic chapter with Alma 36. That's the advantage the Mormon apologists are giving to Joseph Smith, after all, by picking their single most chiastic chapter out of a long, rambling book. The repetitive nature of the text, and its echoing of Biblical style, give it a strong tendency to chiasm everywhere, and apologetic squinting can make almost any text out to be much more chiastic than one would naturally read it as being. With all these odds favouring chiasm, the single most chiastic passage in the Book of Mormon, according to apologetic reading, is bound to be pretty chiastic. It doesn't take a genius to make a chiasm this way.

Treating these crude apologetic articles as serious is perhaps courteous, but in an important way it obscures an essential point, which is that these apologetic articles are really bad. They don't just make little slips, or overstate ambiguous cases, or mess up technical details. They make the thinnest veneer of a superficial case, that only looks sensible if you read fast and don't think, but it's all just cardboard and paint. Nothing at all withstands even momentary scrutiny.

And at some point it must be kinder, as well as more honest, to drop the polite pretence that this is respectable argument that has to be rebutted at length, and instead just point out the biggest howling fallacies in a few sentences, then quit.
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by Shulem »

Physics Guy wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2024 1:19 pm
And at some point it must be kinder, as well as more honest, to drop the polite pretence that this is respectable argument that has to be rebutted at length, and instead just point out the biggest howling fallacies in a few sentences, then quit.
That sounds about right. The article in Peterson's garbage dump is just more garbage atop of garbage -- a mumbled up pile of rubbish. Peterson is the ultimate apologetic liar of the day. There are no honest vibes coming from his apologetics or his cronies. He loves to lie and loves to craft words in a web of nonsense.

Anyway, good luck to lodo bear with his article. I've giving my two cents. But I really don't know the first thing of Bayesian so in that I can't really comment.

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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by Marcus »

Shulem wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2024 4:44 pm
Physics Guy wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2024 1:19 pm
And at some point it must be kinder, as well as more honest, to drop the polite pretence that this is respectable argument that has to be rebutted at length, and instead just point out the biggest howling fallacies in a few sentences, then quit.
That sounds about right. The article in Peterson's garbage dump is just more garbage atop of garbage -- a mumbled up pile of rubbish. Peterson is the ultimate apologetic liar of the day. There are no honest vibes coming from his apologetics or his cronies. He loves to lie and loves to craft words in a web of nonsense.

Anyway, good luck to lodo bear with his article. I've giving my two cents. But I really don't know the first thing of Bayesian so in that I can't really comment.

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No king's name = no king
I agree. I find it interesting that even the Interpreter won't post the Dale's follow up article. It languishes as an 'unpublished' pdf at the Book of Mormon central site. That must have been embarrassing for the authors.
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by Dr Moore »

Marcus wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:30 am
This response to Billy Spears by Bruce Dale is just cringe-inducing:
...The Bayesian method my son Brian and I applied in our Interpreter paper may indeed be the best choice among set of bad options. It may be the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry. But before it was published, that paper went through one of the most rigorous and demanding reviews that I have ever experienced in 40 plus years of writing 300 plus research papers and 60 plus patents...

viewtopic.php?p=2745602#p2745602
Putting one's professional work on the line to defend the silliness of the playground peer review offered by the Interpreter? That was still as embarrassing to read as it was originally.
And, they refused to accept $10k in exchange for me selecting one, just 1, qualified BYU stats professor to conduct a peer review of their paper... I'll just reiterate my point of view that the Dales' paper is garbage, math porn for believers.
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

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lodo_the_bear wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2024 1:20 am
The presence of chiasms seems to be worthy of further study, but from what we have now, they seem to fall short of being the overwhelming evidence that Dale and Dale claim that they are.
D. Michael Quinn demolishes this whole chiasmus business in Mormonism and the Magic World View, footnote 108 in the 1998 edition, pgs 499-504. The four volume AN INTRODUCTION To the Critical Study and Knowledge of THE HOLY SCRIPTURES by Thomas Hartwell Horne discussed "inverted parallelism" and was available in the Palmyra bookstore and advertised for sale in 1825 in the Wayne Sentinel. The set was also available in the Canandaigua lending library. It's not plausible that Joe and his circle were unaware of it.

http://tinyurl.com/chiasmus99
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by Physics Guy »

(Typo: That book was advertised in 1825, not 1925.)

Thanks for pointing out this contemporary chiasm source! I'd call it a great find, except that I think Quinn's book should count as well known, so we should all have heard this already by now. I hadn't.

According to the quotations in the linked page, Horne calls chiasmus "introverted parallelism" and apparently discusses it only as a variation on the pervasive parallelism of Hebrew poetry. That makes a lot of sense to me, and supports my previous impression that anyone who knew the Old Testament well, and tried to imitate it, would have found it easy to write chiasms, regardless of whether they knew the term "chiasmus".

Parallelism really is pervasive in Hebrew poetry. It seems to be to poetry in Hebrew what rhyming and scanning are in English, or what alliteration was in the old English of Beowulf. It's the thing that you do with your words that makes them different from ordinary prose. You just can't help seeing all the parallelism in the Old Testament. Pretty much every single Psalm and Proverb, and all the little chunks of poetry in the Law and the Prophets, are just couplet after couplet in which the second line repeats the first in different words. If you try to sound like the Old Testament, you're going to be doing this parallel thing, even if you never frame the conscious thought, "Gee, there's this pattern of repetition."

Parallelism alone isn't chiasmus, but it's the next thing to it, because if you're doing really a lot of parallelism, as the Old Testament does, you're going to want to change things up a bit before the constant, "Johnny hit Jimmy, and John did clobber Jim good" gets too monotonous. Especially in a language in which word order is more flexible than in modern English, switching around the order of words in the repetition is an obvious way to spice up the verses. Those inverted repetitions are going to sound unusual to native English speakers, since inverted structures are rare in modern English, so they register to English speakers as distinctive features of Biblical language. If you're trying to imitate Biblical language for any length of time, you're going to be doing a bunch of inverted parallelisms, even if you never consciously plan this.

Another obvious way to get variety into parallel poetry is to deliberately stretch out some of your parallel structures longer. The length of the stanza, before it gets repeated, is bound to be variable anyway; you just push this farther on purpose sometimes. An audience that knows that poetry is parallelism will wait as you stretch out your lines without any parallel repetition, tension building; then they'll grin when you bring it all home again, repeating the whole longer statement, in the same way that people today appreciate it when a rapper pulls off a rhyme over two longer lines. So the Old Testament is full of parallel structures of shorter and longer lengths, and plenty of lengths in between. If you just try seriously to imitate the Old Testament over a longer stretch, you're going to be doing some longer parallelisms. And some of them will be inverted.

Un- or semi-conscious imitation of Biblical style probably doesn't stretch to truly massive chiasms with over a dozen elements. No such huge chiasms really exist in the Book of Mormon, though. They're artefacts of apologetic cheating that forces the pattern onto the text and overlooks things that break the pattern.

Chiasm isn't an isolated quirk of Hebrew poetry. It's a natural aspect of pervasive parallelism, which nobody who hears or reads the Old Testament can avoid noticing because it just hits you in the face all the time. Chiasmus is bound to come up if anyone tries to imitate Old Testament language at length, even if they don't plan it consciously.

Parallelism is also convenient if you're making up a text on the fly. It pads the text out and gives you more time to think. It effectively doubles the time you have to think up what to say next, because you say each thing twice. Chiasm is a nice way to make the repetition less obvious and tedious. So if you were dictating a long text off the top of your head, you'd probably fall into parallelism, with a bit of chiasmus, even if you weren't trying to sound like the Bible.

Finally, we shouldn't underestimate the degree to which Smith might indeed have known consciously about chiasmus as a hallmark of Hebrew poetry. If it was in a widely available book in 1825, then it had probably been in the libraries of educated preachers for generations. People in Smith's time spent a lot of time listening to sermons—and those people expected more from a sermon than, "Can I get an Amen?" They wanted displays of erudition from the preacher, to justify his professional status and salary.

Showing people how Hebrew poetry worked, and even pointing out introverted parallelism, is exactly the kind of thing that an early 1800s preacher would have done to send the congregation home happy. Even if Smith never read about chiasm in any book, there's a good chance he knew all about it from some sermon he'd heard at some point.
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Re: Against Dale and Dale’s Bayesian analysis of the Book of Mormon – rough draft, looking for feedback

Post by bill4long »

Physics Guy wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:58 am
(Typo: That book was advertised in 1825, not 1925.)
Fixed. Thanks for pointing it out.
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