How the Mighty Fall

[Dr. Shades]

I agree; that was an amazing read, Dr. Moore. Thank you for taking the time to type all that up.

[Dr Moore]

So far in 2023, the church's steady march through "stage 3" and into "stage 4" decline continues, according to my eyes. A few additional observations.

3.2: Big Bets and Bold Goals Without Empirical Validation: Nelson has now announced over 120 new temples, a wasteful spending spree in context of stagnant member growth and growing evidence of declining activity worldwide. For the latest indicator, see this study of cellphone data pre-Covid by U. Chicago professor Devin Pope. These new buildings, while justified in the name of "easier access for members" are destined to become underutilized Potemkin symbols of the widening gulf between member behavior - rising mistrust and apathy - and arrogant displays of "faith" by authoritative leaders.
3.3: Incurring Huge Downside Risk Based on Ambiguous Data: I see two new ways this is playing out. First, leaders continue escalating a political game of chicken over social issues, such as marriage equality and gender identity, based on the ambiguous argumentation of "preserving religious liberty" (a.k.a., conservation of bigotry). Second, the church has been exposed for not only hiding its vast wealth, but brazenly breaking the law to do so, all on the basis of an ambiguous fear-borne notion that if members knew how rich the church was, they'd stop paying tithing. This bet, some 20-30 years in the making, defines stage 3.3 by incurring massive downside risk to the institution - not only financial, but also permanently jeopardizing its moral authority. These risks have been assumed by dozens of church leaders over more than a generation based on an unscientific (and likely untrue) assessment that the cost of transparency is greater than the cost of secrecy, even illegal secrecy.
3.4: Erosion of Healthy Team Dynamics: See brother Corbitt's anti-activism speech. Stifling opposition and dissent = textbook unhealthy team & organizational leadership.
3.5: Externalizing Blame: Church leaders, dutifully following Nelson's lead, appear to have fully embraced the message that when the church faces negative consequences, it's Satan's fault. "We don't always do the wrong thing, but when we do, it's Satan's fault for attacking us." Meanwhile, true victims of abuse etc are quietly hushed by the army of attorneys at K&M.

4.1: Panic and Haste: Two notes. First, for those paying attention, hardly a week goes by in which a stake somewhere isn't being collapsed from 9 wards to 6, or 6 to 4. The brave face says it's strengthening the kingdom, but anecdotes from every situation are dire. Leadership is apoplectic about staffing basic ward functions, much less the temples. This collapse in active-activity is happening even in Utah, despite the great migration reported by every non-Morridor stake reorg. Second, another sign of panic and haste is the knee-jerk responses offered in the church's newsroom to all manner of legitimate issues, from abuse scandals to settling serious violations of the law with the SEC. Beneath the legalese and needle threading, I see an organization acting in haste out of panic over the steady loss of its "good name."
4.3: Hype Precedes Results: Vague and uneventful promises by Nelson continue apace. Take this one like, "In coming days, we will see the greatest manifestations of the Savior’s power that the world has ever seen." (Oct. 2022) Statements like this are the ultimate hype, and Nelson seems to invent a new one every 6 months. And yet, nothing new under the sun, other than some new scandal or twist of marketing by the church. It's telltale grasping.
4.4: Initial Upswing Followed by Disappointments: This is more of a prediction. Post-pandemic, we've seen an initial upswing in convert baptisms and missionaries in the field. Both received with fanfare. I predict both turn back down in 2024.
4.5: Confusion and Cynicism: Plenty to go around in the wake of the church paying $5 million to settle charges of deliberately breaking the law for more than 20 years. Members who give themselves permission to look are coming away shellshocked, often unable to talk about it rationally. But I see plenty emerging with a sense of distrust and cynicism about it all. The church is creating a whole new generation of social Mormons.

For your consideration... until next year.

[Kishkumen]

So far in 2023, the church's steady march through "stage 3" and into "stage 4" decline continues, according to my eyes. A few additional observations.

3.2: Big Bets and Bold Goals Without Empirical Validation: Nelson has now announced over 120 new temples, a wasteful spending spree in context of stagnant member growth and growing evidence of declining activity worldwide. For the latest indicator, see this study of cellphone data pre-Covid by U. Chicago professor Devin Pope. These new buildings, while justified in the name of "easier access for members" are destined to become underutilized Potemkin symbols of the widening gulf between member behavior - rising mistrust and apathy - and arrogant displays of "faith" by authoritative leaders.
3.3: Incurring Huge Downside Risk Based on Ambiguous Data: I see two new ways this is playing out. First, leaders continue escalating a political game of chicken over social issues, such as marriage equality and gender identity, based on the ambiguous argumentation of "preserving religious liberty" (a.k.a., conservation of bigotry). Second, the church has been exposed for not only hiding its vast wealth, but brazenly breaking the law to do so, all on the basis of an ambiguous fear-borne notion that if members knew how rich the church was, they'd stop paying tithing. This bet, some 20-30 years in the making, defines stage 3.3 by incurring massive downside risk to the institution - not only financial, but also permanently jeopardizing its moral authority. These risks have been assumed by dozens of church leaders over more than a generation based on an unscientific (and likely untrue) assessment that the cost of transparency is greater than the cost of secrecy, even illegal secrecy.
3.4: Erosion of Healthy Team Dynamics: See brother Corbitt's anti-activism speech. Stifling opposition and dissent = textbook unhealthy team & organizational leadership.
3.5: Externalizing Blame: Church leaders, dutifully following Nelson's lead, appear to have fully embraced the message that when the church faces negative consequences, it's Satan's fault. "We don't always do the wrong thing, but when we do, it's Satan's fault for attacking us." Meanwhile, true victims of abuse etc are quietly hushed by the army of attorneys at K&M.

4.1: Panic and Haste: Two notes. First, for those paying attention, hardly a week goes by in which a stake somewhere isn't being collapsed from 9 wards to 6, or 6 to 4. The brave face says it's strengthening the kingdom, but anecdotes from every situation are dire. Leadership is apoplectic about staffing basic ward functions, much less the temples. This collapse in active-activity is happening even in Utah, despite the great migration reported by every non-Morridor stake reorg. Second, another sign of panic and haste is the knee-jerk responses offered in the church's newsroom to all manner of legitimate issues, from abuse scandals to settling serious violations of the law with the SEC. Beneath the legalese and needle threading, I see an organization acting in haste out of panic over the steady loss of its "good name."
4.3: Hype Precedes Results: Vague and uneventful promises by Nelson continue apace. Take this one like, "In coming days, we will see the greatest manifestations of the Savior’s power that the world has ever seen." (Oct. 2022) Statements like this are the ultimate hype, and Nelson seems to invent a new one every 6 months. And yet, nothing new under the sun, other than some new scandal or twist of marketing by the church. It's telltale grasping.
4.4: Initial Upswing Followed by Disappointments: This is more of a prediction. Post-pandemic, we've seen an initial upswing in convert baptisms and missionaries in the field. Both received with fanfare. I predict both turn back down in 2024.
4.5: Confusion and Cynicism: Plenty to go around in the wake of the church paying $5 million to settle charges of deliberately breaking the law for more than 20 years. Members who give themselves permission to look are coming away shellshocked, often unable to talk about it rationally. But I see plenty emerging with a sense of distrust and cynicism about it all. The church is creating a whole new generation of social Mormons.

For your consideration... until next year.

Absolutely wonderful post! Thanks for taking the time to go through this. You make a very powerful argument here.

[Gadianton]

"In coming days, we will see the greatest manifestations of the Savior’s power that the world has ever seen."

I missed this one. (not that I watch conference or anything, but I missed it if somebody pointed it out online earlier). He's a sociopath. He's got to be.

The church is creating a whole new generation of social Mormons.

How is that?

[drumdude]

Collins, Stage 4 Markers wrote:
Panic and Haste: Instead of being calm, deliberate, and disciplined, people exhibit hasty, reactive behavior, bordering on panic.

I think they’re quickly going to reach a critical mass of inactivity in wards. No one enjoys going to sacrament meeting and Sunday school. Even DCP admitted once (in an astonishing moment of candor) that LDS church is boring.

When there is no longer the immense social pressure to attend and be seen at church, what reason is there to show up? Likely the church will have to transition to a model more like traditional Christianity. With a mostly inactive lay membership who show up just to passively watch the speaker, take the sacrament, and leave in under an hour.

The days of Mormons’ weeks revolving around the church are over. No home teaching. No scouts on Wednesday. No stake dances on Saturday nights. You’ll get 1-2 hours of them a week max. And those will be the TBMs.

[Dr Moore]

The church is creating a whole new generation of social Mormons.

How is that?

By this I mean, a greater percentage of members who attend only for social/community reasons. Or, PIMO, if you prefer.

[Dr Moore]

Philo, what a brilliant episode of BYP tonight. You added so much with incremental data, examples and energy. Very well done!

[Philo Sofee]

Philo, what a brilliant episode of BYP tonight. You added so much with incremental data, examples and energy. Very well done!

Oh thank you, that is very kind. I meant to ask you if it was all right for me to use your ideas here. Please do not be offended, I just ran out of time. I didn't actually start preparing for it until today at noon. It is my personal thanks and tribute to you for your stellar information and research. ALWAYS a pleasure to read. Keep giving it to us amigo!

My wife thinks I was too sarcastic. I might have to watch that...