LDS retention rates for BIC members is in serious decline in the USA

[Kishkumen]

Perhaps I may have been instrumental in some folks' reconsiderations: I became aware of a number of Mormons who would have dearly loved to have been able to take the sacrament weekly, but who were not willing/able to take the risk of having people coming to their homes to administer it in person. I pointed out that they could at least partake monthly, risk free, if they were inclined to accept the online sacrament participation offered by the CoC. In particular, some participated through Beyond the Walls - at the time, a fledgling program that was available online through the Toronto Centre Place congregation, where John Hamer was (still is) pastor.

Through Beyond the Walls, one prepared the physical elements - bread and water, or a suitable substitute - at home, and the sacrament prayers said by CoC priesthood holders online were considered to be effective for anyone logged in. in my opinion (yep - who am I to "constrain" the god I don't believe in ‽‽) a reasonable god would have found that to be acceptable under the circumstances.

I had forgotten about that program. Cool stuff! What a wonderful service for the members.

[malkie]

Perhaps I may have been instrumental in some folks' reconsiderations: I became aware of a number of Mormons who would have dearly loved to have been able to take the sacrament weekly, but who were not willing/able to take the risk of having people coming to their homes to administer it in person. I pointed out that they could at least partake monthly, risk free, if they were inclined to accept the online sacrament participation offered by the CoC. In particular, some participated through Beyond the Walls - at the time, a fledgling program that was available online through the Toronto Centre Place congregation, where John Hamer was (still is) pastor.

Through Beyond the Walls, one prepared the physical elements - bread and water, or a suitable substitute - at home, and the sacrament prayers said by CoC priesthood holders online were considered to be effective for anyone logged in. in my opinion (yep - who am I to "constrain" the god I don't believe in ‽‽) a reasonable god would have found that to be acceptable under the circumstances.

I had forgotten about that program. Cool stuff! What a wonderful service for the members.

If Beyond the Walls had been an LDS program, I have no doubt that Mopologists would have praised it to the heavens as an example of how the Prophet is truly being guided by Mormon god to provide what the members need, when they need it. They may even have used expressions like "our prophet can see around corners". But as it was/is a CoC program, there has been, as far as I'm aware, no recognition of its value from the LDS organization.

[Kishkumen]

If Beyond the Walls had been an LDS program, I have no doubt that Mopologists would have praised it to the heavens as an example of how the Prophet is truly being guided by Mormon god to provide what the members need, when they need it. They may even have used expressions like "our prophet can see around corners". But as it was/is a CoC program, there has been, as far as I'm aware, no recognition of its value from the LDS organization.

The usual organizational tribalism in action. Sadly, it is a darn-near universal phenomenon.

[Dr. Shades]

The key dynamic being highlighted is that there has been a dramatic increase in the ratio of children born into the Church going on to leave activity once they reach adulthood.

If that's true, shouldn't we see a correspondingly dramatic decrease in Institute enrollment, attendance, and/or participation? If so, are we seeing such a decrease, or aren't we? I'm not trying to call you out; I genuinely don't know the answer to those questions.

[I Have Questions]

The key dynamic being highlighted is that there has been a dramatic increase in the ratio of children born into the Church going on to leave activity once they reach adulthood.

If that's true, shouldn't we see a correspondingly dramatic decrease in Institute enrollment, attendance, and/or participation? If so, are we seeing such a decrease, or aren't we? I'm not trying to call you out; I genuinely don't know the answer to those questions.

You'd only see that if they were surveyed whilst of an Institute age. And also only if they had left activity prior to or during that age group. As an example, if a BIC member leaves activity at age 35, then they’d be included in the survey data but would show up as a reduction in Institute enrolment.

This is what Jana Riess says (from the OP)

In 2007, according to Pew, the church retained 70% of childhood members in the U.S. In 2014, that was 64%, and in 2023–24 it had declined still further to 54%.

That 54% current retention rate looks better than the GSS’ 38%, so that’s potentially good news for Latter-day Saint leaders. But, once again, we’re witnessing a clear drop from the fairly recent past. Both major U.S. surveys that track childhood affiliation are saying that more people are leaving than used to do so.

[Dr. Shades]

As an example, if a BIC member leaves activity at age 35, then they’d be included in the survey data but would show up as a reduction in Institute enrolment.

I don't see how, since they're past Institute age.

Anyway, do you, or does anyone else, have any anecdotes about Institutes of religion with diminished class sizes compared to, say, 25 years ago?

[I Have Questions]

As an example, if a BIC member leaves activity at age 35, then they’d be included in the survey data but would show up as a reduction in Institute enrolment.

I don't see how, since they're past Institute age.

Anyway, do you, or does anyone else, have any anecdotes about Institutes of religion with diminished class sizes compared to, say, 25 years ago?

I don’t. I’m not sure that it’s referenced in the articles either. Are institute classes just for BIC members?

[Res Ipsa]

The key dynamic being highlighted is that there has been a dramatic increase in the ratio of children born into the Church going on to leave activity once they reach adulthood.

If that's true, shouldn't we see a correspondingly dramatic decrease in Institute enrollment, attendance, and/or participation? If so, are we seeing such a decrease, or aren't we? I'm not trying to call you out; I genuinely don't know the answer to those questions.

There are several possible explanations for why it could be true that the number of institute students has been increasing and the rate of retention has been decreasing. Reiss mentioned two: a widening of the age range for institute programs and requiring participants in the church’s online degree program to attend institute classes. Other possibilities: increasing numbers of BIC members, increasing rate of college attendance, and increasing rate of institute participation. The church itself can directly influence the layer by setting the expectations for institute participation.