An Actuarial Analysis of Pascal’s Wager

[Limnor]

How to get fired as an intel guy.

Preliminary Threat Brief: Alien invasion expected. One unverified source; credibility undetermined; probability assessed as minimal. Consequences, if true, assessed as catastrophic.

Recommended Action: Immediate escalation to DEFCON 1 and indefinite mobilization.

Most formal risk assessments evaluate risk as Risk = Probability × Impact.

The above aligns probability as minimal and impact as catastrophic. That yields low-to-moderate risk, not maximum risk. While catastrophic impact matters, without credible probability or corroboration, it does not justify the recommendation.

[malkie]

How to get fired as an intel guy.

Preliminary Threat Brief: Alien invasion expected. One unverified source; credibility undetermined; probability assessed as minimal. Consequences, if true, assessed as catastrophic.

Recommended Action: Immediate escalation to DEFCON 1 and indefinite mobilization.

Most formal risk assessments evaluate risk as Risk = Probability × Impact.

The above aligns probability as minimal and impact as catastrophic. That yields low-to-moderate risk, not maximum risk. While catastrophic impact matters, without credible probability or corroboration, it does not justify the recommendation.

Depends

This kind of calculation of Risk (similar to a cost-benefit analysis) may be very sensitive to high values of either input parameter. I'm experiencing the results of such a risk calculation right now.

My wife & I had planned to be in Mexico for the winter. We always drive (from near Toronto, Canada) across the US, often via St George. In prior years we have had almost no concerns crossing the US. For us as Canadian citizens we always felt welcome and relatively safe, in spite of concerns about the risk of gun violence, and in spite of the fact that I was once threatened by a guy in a store in Utah - he pulled his jacket aside to let me see the gun he was carrying, because he and his friends didn't want to move out of the way for me.

But the concern now is DHS/ICE. Although the likelihood of being detained is very small, the potential impact is huge, and, to me, the risk is way above low-to-moderate. High enough, in fact, that I have to consider the possibility that we will never see our US family again.

There's a complicating factor that slightly increases the probability, but even if that could theoretically be eliminated I am still scared enough to stay away.

[malkie]

By the way, I must apologise to Analytics and IHQ, and possibly to Limnor.

I made a comment several days ago on this topic that each of you replied to, and that I subsequently failed to follow up on, although your comments certainly deserved a reply. At this point, the conversation having moved on, I think it's not too likely that I'll have the energy to go back and read everything from then till now to try to create coherent and relevant responses. I'm suffering a bit from the winter "blahs", or something like that.

Sorry

[Limnor]

How to get fired as an intel guy.

Preliminary Threat Brief: Alien invasion expected. One unverified source; credibility undetermined; probability assessed as minimal. Consequences, if true, assessed as catastrophic.

Recommended Action: Immediate escalation to DEFCON 1 and indefinite mobilization.

Most formal risk assessments evaluate risk as Risk = Probability × Impact.

The above aligns probability as minimal and impact as catastrophic. That yields low-to-moderate risk, not maximum risk. While catastrophic impact matters, without credible probability or corroboration, it does not justify the recommendation.

Depends

This kind of calculation of Risk (similar to a cost-benefit analysis) may be very sensitive to high values of either input parameter. I'm experiencing the results of such a risk calculation right now.

My wife & I had planned to be in Mexico for the winter. We always drive (from near Toronto, Canada) across the US, often via St George. In prior years we have had almost no concerns crossing the US. For us as Canadian citizens we always felt welcome and relatively safe, in spite of concerns about the risk of gun violence, and in spite of the fact that I was once threatened by a guy in a store in Utah - he pulled his jacket aside to let me see the gun he was carrying, because he and his friends didn't want to move out of the way for me.

But the concern now is DHS/ICE. Although the likelihood of being detained is very small, the potential impact is huge, and, to me, the risk is way above low-to-moderate. High enough, in fact, that I have to consider the possibility that we will never see our US family again.

There's a complicating factor that slightly increases the probability, but even if that could theoretically be eliminated I am still scared enough to stay away.

I get that. When it affects you and your family directly, the calculus isn’t abstract anymore.

Also no need to apologize!