GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

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_JohnStuartMill
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _JohnStuartMill »

Calculus Crusader wrote:
JohnStuartMill wrote:The drafters of the Civil War amendments certainly did not contemplate that they would be used to argue for the illegality of miscegenation bans, or to integrate Southern classrooms. According to your jurisprudential standard, Loving v. Virginia and Brown v. Board of Education were decidedly incorrectly, and African-Americans should have meekly waited another 50 years until the legislatures deigned to advance their cause.


I am a contextualist, not an original-intentist. Blacks were explicitly granted equal protection under the law via constitutional amendment and the U.S. had almost 100 years of data at the time of Brown to demonstrate that they were denied equal protection under segregation.
The relevant sections of the Civil War amendments mention gays exactly as many times as they mention blacks, and they apply equally to both groups. How do you justify applying them to one, but not the other?

JohnStuartMill wrote:I have noted a relevant similarity between Germany under Hitler and the state for which religious conservatives pine: in both, majoritarian rule grants insufficient respect for minority rights. If you think that an electoral popularity against equal rights for gays legitimizes that opinion, then you have nothing to say against Hitler's crimes against the minorities under his rule.


Dear hayseed,

Appeals to analogy are known as the weakest form of argumentation for a reason. Your analogy is not valid; Nazi Germany was not a proper democratic state.
I don't care about whether it was "properly democratic", because the important part for me is that it was majoritarian -- it certainly followed the "will of the people", which is the defense that religious idiots have used in the aftermath of Prop. 8 to justify their tyranny.

JohnStuartMill wrote:Actually, there's quite a bit more. There is very good empirical data suggesting that gay marriage bans are becoming more unpopular: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/ ... riage.html (The guy who runs that site graduated with honors from the University of Chicago economics department, which is famed for its mathematical rigor.) This trend is not surprising because, as already mentioned, the younger generations of voters are more likely to support gay marriage, and there is no evidence to suggest that this belief changes over time. Obviously, there are always qualifiers and caveats to the conclusions to statistical analyses, but you do not have sufficient warrant to believe that the caveats necessary to cut against my conclusion obtain.


A. I don't care if he "graduated with honors from the University of Chicago economics department." That does not mean he knows how to conduct a legitimate sample survey and/or correctly interpret a sample survey.
What do you find improper about his interpretation? If you have issues with it, you should say what they are instead of dancing around it like a little fairy princess.

B. I do not necessarily dispute that the youth demographic is more accepting of gay "marriage" in some regions. What I dispute is that survey results give you license to prognosticate to 2060.

I find it ironic that you don't apply such a strong skepticism to the religious beliefs your mommy and daddy inculcated into you.

If the population of country X is composed of segment A, which favors drowning puppies by 75% to 25%, and segment B, which opposes drowning puppies by the same margin, and if segment A is not expected to exist in 30 years, then the population of country X can be expected to oppose drowning puppies in 30 years. This isn't hard.
"You clearly haven't read [Dawkins'] book." -Kevin Graham, 11/04/09
_Calculus Crusader
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _Calculus Crusader »

JohnStuartMill wrote:The relevant sections of the Civil War amendments mention gays exactly as many times as they mention blacks, and they apply equally to both groups. How do you justify applying them to one, but not the other?


Ahem. Socio-historical context. Contextualist.

JohnStuartMill wrote:I don't care about whether it was "properly democratic", because the important part for me is that it was majoritarian -- it certainly followed the "will of the people", which is the defense that religious idiots have used in the aftermath of Prop. 8 to justify their tyranny.


No, it followed the will of Hitler.

JohnStuartMill wrote:
B. I do not necessarily dispute that the youth demographic is more accepting of gay "marriage" in some regions. What I dispute is that survey results give you license to prognosticate to 2060.

I find it ironic that you don't apply such a strong skepticism to the religious beliefs your mommy and daddy inculcated into you.


My parents did not inculcate me with religious beliefs, stupid ass.

JohnStuartMill wrote:If the population of country X is composed of segment A, which favors drowning puppies by 75% to 25%, and segment B, which opposes drowning puppies by the same margin, and if segment A is not expected to exist in 30 years, then the population of country X can be expected to oppose drowning puppies in 30 years. This isn't hard.


You can't foresee how beliefs of the demographic will change in the interim. You also can't be sure that they are not giving the "politically correct" answer to the pollster.

I realize your worthless degree puts you at a disadvantage here but that's not my problem.
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_Calculus Crusader
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _Calculus Crusader »

JohnStuartMill wrote:What do you find improper about his interpretation? If you have issues with it, you should say what they are instead of dancing around it like a little fairy princess.


I just looked at the link you provided and his analysis was overly simplistic, as expected. Even so, your source wrote:

It is entirely possible, of course, that past trends will not be predictive of future results. There could be a backlash against gay marriage, somewhat as there was a backlash against drug legalization in the 1980s.

Showing that he has more sense than you.
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_JohnStuartMill
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _JohnStuartMill »

Calculus Crusader wrote:
JohnStuartMill wrote:The relevant sections of the Civil War amendments mention gays exactly as many times as they mention blacks, and they apply equally to both groups. How do you justify applying them to one, but not the other?


Ahem. Socio-historical context. Contextualist.
I was unaware that these words contained talismanic power that enables their users to discriminate at will.

JohnStuartMill wrote:I don't care about whether it was "properly democratic", because the important part for me is that it was majoritarian -- it certainly followed the "will of the people", which is the defense that religious idiots have used in the aftermath of Prop. 8 to justify their tyranny.


No, it followed the will of Hitler.
The two are not mutually exclusive.

JohnStuartMill wrote:I find it ironic that you don't apply such a strong skepticism to the religious beliefs your mommy and daddy inculcated into you.


My parents did not inculcate me with religious beliefs, stupid ass.
Really? Your parents never encouraged you to follow one religion over another without telling you to weigh the evidence on your own? Even if that's true, I wouldn't go spreading it around if I were you, because it means that you don't even have an excuse for believing the BS.

JohnStuartMill wrote:If the population of country X is composed of segment A, which favors drowning puppies by 75% to 25%, and segment B, which opposes drowning puppies by the same margin, and if segment A is not expected to exist in 30 years, then the population of country X can be expected to oppose drowning puppies in 30 years. This isn't hard.


You can't foresee how beliefs of the demographic will change in the interim.
You're right: we can't know that young people won't all of a sudden oppose gay marriage, any more than we can know that they won't all of a sudden oppose interracial marriage. But the trend lines have been clear, and support for other social issues (e.g. interracial marriage) has not dwindled within generational groups over time. There's every indication that my conservative assumptions (I haven't even said that support for gay marriage could snowball, which some say is happening right now) are correct, and there's zero indication that your pipe dream of a total reversal of opinion will occur.

You also can't be sure that they are not giving the "politically correct" answer to the pollster.


If poll participants have been lying to pollsters about their views regarding gay marriage, then that effect hasn't exhibited itself in final election outcomes so far. Why do you think that would start now?

I realize your worthless degree puts you at a disadvantage here but that's not my problem.

Yes, my UCLA political science degree is obviously completely worthless and irrelevant to the political analysis at hand. :rolleyes: They make you do statistical analyses for social science degrees, too, you know.

And it's not smart strategy for you to impugn my innate mathematical abilities, either -- I can guarantee that your math SAT score isn't higher than mine.
"You clearly haven't read [Dawkins'] book." -Kevin Graham, 11/04/09
_Calculus Crusader
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _Calculus Crusader »

JohnStuartMill wrote:
My parents did not inculcate me with religious beliefs, stupid ass.
Really? Your parents never encouraged you to follow one religion over another without telling you to weigh the evidence on your own? Even if that's true, I wouldn't go spreading it around if I were you, because it means that you don't even have an excuse for believing the b***s***.


I don't believe in b.s. hayseed.

JohnStuartMill wrote:You're right: we can't know that young people won't all of a sudden oppose gay marriage, any more than we can know that they won't all of a sudden oppose interracial marriage. But the trend lines have been clear, and support for other social issues (e.g. interracial marriage) has not dwindled within generational groups over time. There's every indication that my conservative assumptions (I haven't even said that support for gay marriage could snowball, which some say is happening right now) are correct, and there's zero indication that your pipe dream of a total reversal of opinion will occur.


Time will tell. In the meantime, unless you wish to be classed with Joe and Miss Cleo, I suggest not going beyond the data.

If poll participants have been lying to pollsters about their views regarding gay marriage, then that effect hasn't exhibited itself in final election outcomes so far. Why do you think that would start now?


I believe we observed that phenomenon in CA.

Yes, my UCLA political science degree is obviously completely worthless and irrelevant to the political analysis at hand. :rolleyes:


Admitting this is a good first step.

They make you do statistical analyses for social science degrees, too, you know.


Yes, which is, often, a excellent example of the adage concerning knowing a little about a subject being worse than knowing nothing.

JohnStuartMill wrote:And it's not smart strategy for you to impugn my innate mathematical abilities, either -- I can guarantee that your math SAT score isn't higher than mine.


I have a M.S. in statistics from UC San Diego. Why would I give a flying [expletive] what you received on the mathematics portion of the SAT?
Last edited by Guest on Thu Apr 09, 2009 6:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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_asbestosman
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _asbestosman »

JohnStuartMill wrote:And it's not smart strategy for you to impugn my innate mathematical abilities, either -- I can guarantee that your math SAT score isn't higher than mine.

That's awesome. No, really it is. Still, I'm not coninced that the SAT / ACT offer reliable measurements of one's mathematical ability in part because so many people score so high on it especially when compared to the distribution of scores in other areas such as reading comprehension. I think I missed one or two questions on it myself--usually stupid small errors I can immedately see afterwards. Candidly, I'm much more proud of how I did in the Utah State Math competitions when I was in high school and I consider those tests to be many times more difficult. I never did quite as well on the AHSME, but oh well. I live and learn and learn to leave and learn to learn and stuff.

I still believe that most people could have done what I did, but that they lacked the drive / interest.
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _asbestosman »

Calculus Crusader wrote:Time will tell. In the meantime, unless you wish to be classed with Joe and Miss Cleo, I suggest not going beyond the data.

That reminds me of something I wanted to ask you (perhaps we should start a new thread), but what is your opinion about Irreducable Complexity at least inasmuch as it appeals to statistics and Fisher's method, etc.?
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_EAllusion
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _EAllusion »

The drafters of the Civil War amendments certainly did not contemplate that they would be used to argue for the illegality of miscegenation bans

Actually, they did. And they stated in no uncertain terms that these amendments weren't meant to allow for interracial marriage.
_JohnStuartMill
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _JohnStuartMill »

Calculus Crusader wrote:Time will tell. In the meantime, unless you wish to be classed with Joe and Miss Cleo, I suggest not going beyond the data.
I offer a counter-suggestion: that nobody who believes in sparkle Jesus magic should lecture others about "going beyond the data".

If poll participants have been lying to pollsters about their views regarding gay marriage, then that effect hasn't exhibited itself in final election outcomes so far. Why do you think that would start now?


I believe we observed that phenomenon in CA.
Reference?

They make you do statistical analyses for social science degrees, too, you know.


Yes, which is, often, a excellent example of the adage concerning knowing a little about a subject being worse than knowing nothing.
This doesn't even merit a response.

JohnStuartMill wrote:And it's not smart strategy for you to impugn my innate mathematical abilities, either -- I can guarantee that your math SAT score isn't higher than mine.


I have a M.S. in statistics from UC San Diego. Why would I give a flying [expletive] what you received on the mathematics portion of the SAT?

See that word "innate" up there?
"You clearly haven't read [Dawkins'] book." -Kevin Graham, 11/04/09
_JohnStuartMill
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Re: GAY MARRIAGE LEGALIZED BY HEDONISTIC COASTAL STATE... Iowa?

Post by _JohnStuartMill »

Calculus Crusader wrote:
JohnStuartMill wrote:What do you find improper about his interpretation? If you have issues with it, you should say what they are instead of dancing around it like a little fairy princess.


I just looked at the link you provided and his analysis was overly simplistic, as expected. Even so, your source wrote:

It is entirely possible, of course, that past trends will not be predictive of future results. There could be a backlash against gay marriage, somewhat as there was a backlash against drug legalization in the 1980s.

Showing that he has more sense than you.


From my earlier post:

Actually, there's quite a bit more. There is very good empirical data suggesting that gay marriage bans are becoming more unpopular: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/ ... riage.html (The guy who runs that site graduated with honors from the University of Chicago economics department, which is famed for its mathematical rigor.) This trend is not surprising because, as already mentioned, the younger generations of voters are more likely to support gay marriage, and there is no evidence to suggest that this belief changes over time. Obviously, there are always qualifiers and caveats to the conclusions to statistical analyses, but you do not have sufficient warrant to believe that the caveats necessary to cut against my conclusion obtain.
"You clearly haven't read [Dawkins'] book." -Kevin Graham, 11/04/09
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