EAllusion wrote:Habermas / Craig / Wright ... argue that the best explanation for early Christina disciples' ministry is a genuine belief that Jesus was resurrected, which itself is best explained by that actually having happened. A lot of effort in demonstrating this goes into attacking alternative explanations as [in]sufficient.
How far do they (as opposed to their overzealous fans) try to push this argument? I think it might be fair to say that for a belief so bizarre to be strongly held by many people, something pretty weird must have happened. Resurrection after crucifixion by Romans isn't as easy to swallow as simply seeing somebody look like someone else for a while, or believing that somebody else had a vision. It would arguably take weirder circumstances to get a bunch of people to buy into a resurrection than it would take to get people to buy into those lesser miracles.
That far, I think, there may be a case to be made. Do H/C/W actually try to insist that the weird circumstance that provoked belief in a resurrection can only have been an actual resurrection, though? I think that would be pushing too far. It would be perverse argument, after all: making out that the resurrection is more credible because it is less credible. What?
It would be reasonable to assign extremely low prior probability to a resurrection, and once one is considering such fantastically unlikely circumstances then there are all kinds of other weird flukes that should be considered as well. The body of Jesus could have been vaporized by a meteorite, for example, or quickly mauled beyond recognition by a pack of street dogs that got loose just at the one moment when the six members of the crucifixion squad all mistakenly thought that it was their turn to go on break.
I think that this is really why the possibility of miracles has to be ignored by historians. It's not that historians are all so extremely sure that miracles never occur, but that even if miracles do occur they are so rare that if miracles were considered by historians, then zillions of other weird flukes would also have to be considered. Once you're in meteorite territory you have to give up.