Middle way Mormons are in peril

[_stemelbow]

18%? Oh boy...we're really doing poorly if that's the case. In all the areas I've lived in I don't think I've seen any particular ward that low. Some have to be down below 5% to arrive at such an average it seems.

[_Runtu]

When I hear the complaints on this board about the church, it is usually understood to be an attack on the GAs. It is as if that they have nothing better to do than to control every stake president who wishes to talk to a member. Most SPs as in the example of John or in the middle way people will make their own decisions about whether a talk or discipline is necessary because the bishop knows about their opinions concerning the church.

Talk about a straw man. I simply noted that, at least in 1993, stake presidents were instructed to talk to specific members. That doesn't mean that the GAs are on the lookout for apostates and calling up everyone's stake president. That doesn't happen most of the time, but sometimes church leaders have done just that.

For example, if I have a website dedicated to convincing people that the church is false and the SP knows about it and reads it, well, I can expect a talk from him about my intentions toward the LDS church. It doesn't take a GA to intervene. And if I am a middle way person spouting off about women and the priesthood, abortion, Joseph was a horny toad etc, I can expect a talk from the SP or bishop.

As I said, I am not interested in your straw men.

[_Runtu]

18%? Oh boy...we're really doing poorly if that's the case. In all the areas I've lived in I don't think I've seen any particular ward that low. Some have to be down below 5% to arrive at such an average it seems.

My understanding is that activity is around 40-60% in the US. I've been in wards with higher and lower activity than that. When you go into developing countries, however, activity rates are abysmal. Chilean activity rates are known to be around 10%, and it's safe to say that it was about the same in Bolivia (I was in one branch with 250 members on the rolls but only 3 active members). Given what I hear about other Latin American countries, I'd be surprised if activity rates ever approached 15-20%.

I don't know what the worlwide activity rate is, but 18% sounds too low to me. I'd guess 25-30%.

[_Kevin Graham]

As I suspected: an anecdotal hearsay report, "from way up the ladder". lol

I mean, who would have reason to doubt John Dehlin as a source for activity rates?

The attendance rate in my ward is between 45% - 55%. Full tithe payers are less. Probably around 35%.

I do agree that 18% (or less) of the members do 90% of the work in a ward. But I think it's always been that way.

I don't doubt that there are <20% attendance rates in lots of the non-American congregations, but I've never been in or heard of attendance rates that low in any North American ward. Maybe I've just been lucky.

a while back Chile and Brazil held national surveys. I forget the exact numbers, but the Church claimed to have a membership value of X in each country while the surveys showed that only 12-20% of those people identified as LDS.

Of course activity rates are higher in the USA, but it is still relatively low, hovering between 30-40% activity. Activity in Utah is much higher than in the other states, but this is to be expected. You're essentially a minority in Utah if you're not LDS, and even if you do not believe in the bogus claims, you're likely to go through the motions with everyone else, indicating to others that you're as TBM as the next guy. I know of at least four people in Utah who fall into this category.

The guy who baptized me, his family moved out there and his younger brother is in Orem Utah with five daughters. We all thought they guy had suicidal tendencies, he is always depressed. But as it turned out, it would be his sister in Las Vegas who would attempt to take her life. That surprised all of us, especially because she has four daughters of her own. I know her husband doesn't believe in any of the LDS nonsense, and apparently neither does she. But they play the part like they are supposed to.

About 22 years ago I had my first experience home teaching in Atlanta, and I never will forget the list of members who were in the area. We were handed five or six pages stapled together with hundreds of families and yet there was never more than 120 people in Church every Sunday. We knocked on so many doors, and inactive members complained over and over again that they do not want to be contacted by anyone from the Church. It was really disconcerting for me as a new member to the Church, but what shocked me was the actual percentage of inactives.

It is a fact that the Church produces more ex-Mormons than Mormons.

[_Will Schryver]

... to most people, the loss of some members is probably not "discernible" (but then I can't hold a candle to you when it comes to discernment) ...

You make a good point there.

... but clearly enough people have left that there is some concern in the church leadership.

I haven't detected any change in the level of "concern" of church leadership.

I think that should be obvious, given some of the talks from conferences and other warnings.

I haven't detected any change in the nature of "talks from conferences and other warnings."

But perhaps I haven't been paying as close attention to those things as you have. Please enlighten me.

[_RockSlider]

I suppose it's possible this "exodus" of Mormons from the chapel pews is more pronounced along the Wasatch Front, but I'm pretty much convinced at this point that it is largely an anecdotal panacea that exmormons administer to each other.

I find it interesting even though I asked the question, you have answered Kish. I've noticed this in other instances as well. Of course, I'm a nobody, but let me tell you something of the anecdotal panacea of which you speak.

The spirit fell upon me today, as the dews of heaven, and I wept for a brother whom I don't even know. And the spirit whispered peace to my soul.

William my best advice to you is repent and quit persecuting your brothers and sisters.

[_Kevin Graham]

18%? Oh boy...we're really doing poorly if that's the case. In all the areas I've lived in I don't think I've seen any particular ward that low. Some have to be down below 5% to arrive at such an average it seems.

My understanding is that activity is around 40-60% in the US. I've been in wards with higher and lower activity than that. When you go into developing countries, however, activity rates are abysmal. Chilean activity rates are known to be around 10%, and it's safe to say that it was about the same in Bolivia (I was in one branch with 250 members on the rolls but only 3 active members). Given what I hear about other Latin American countries, I'd be surprised if activity rates ever approached 15-20%.

I don't know what the worlwide activity rate is, but 18% sounds too low to me. I'd guess 25-30%.

The more active wards tend to be in areas where the economy is booming, because people flock to certain areas during job transfers. We moved to Atlanta when it was booming in the late 80's, and the Church had the same problem as the school districts had. They couldn't build enough buildings to house the members just like the government couldn't build enough schools to compensate for the flood of white collar migrants.

Obviously active members are likely to share their information with the Church, so when they move into the area, the Church counts them on their role and that makes their activity rates look good. But the inactives move around too, and the Church can't get a beat on them. So some wards appear to have higher activity rates simply because they do not include the unknown inactives that are floating around in their ward boundaries. This isn't much of a problem in Utah, however, where judgment and gossip go hand in hand. It is difficult to live in Utah as an inactive or non-member without the whole world knowing.

[_Kevin Graham]

Hey Will, about the guy (or woman?) who knocked your front tooth out of your pumpkin head...

Did this take place on a front porch as you were trying to swerve him/her back into the Church?

I can see that happening.

[_Runtu]

You make a good point there.

I always thought your discernment was strictly in recognizing apostates.

I haven't detected any change in the level of "concern" of church leadership.

Maybe not. I have just heard from local leaders, missionaries, and others that there has been more concern about "anti-Mormon" information. I could be wrong.

I haven't detected any change in the nature of "talks from conferences and other warnings."

That's probably because you're more interested in taunting apostates. I'm not feeling well today, so I'm not going to bother looking up stuff, even though I know you will just take that as an admission that I'm wrong, but it seems to me that it's been spoken of recently in talks and broadcasts. Maybe I just watch BYU-TV more than you do.

But perhaps I haven't been paying as close attention to those things as you have. Please enlighten me.

How could I presume to enlighten someone who has had his calling and election made sure?

[_why me]

It is a fact that the Church produces more ex-Mormons than Mormons.

And this proves what exactly? Maybe it proves that people have problems living up to the standards. It is not easy to be Mormon these days. It is a constant swim uphill as morals and values head in the opposite direction of whay the LDS church teaches. It is also a sign that people may find the secular life a bit easier even though it is probably much more difficult to be secular with a go it alone attitude. Or with a dependence just on other human beings.