Time magazine article on backlash vs. LDS in CA ....

[_wenglund]

While short-term swings in polling data are interesting, they are not nearly as relevant as long-term trends. Overall, the long-term trend is up pretty much across the board. Plus, SSM has only been a publicly salient issue (that is, on the public agenda) for a relatively short time, so it is reasonable to expect the trend to accelerate at some point in the future. Finally, once the trend line does pick up and start to accelerate in certain areas, it will pull others, kicking and screaming, along with it. I assume that support for civil rights did not trend at the same rate in all states, but eventually even the more bigoted states were pulled along with the rest of society for a variety of reasons.

We are not talking about a sea change over the next year or even couple of years. I fully expect this to take some time, but at some point in the next, say, 10 years or so, we will reach the tipping point on this issue, and it will accelerate. It may even happen sooner than that.

Once one accepts the proposition that civil rights are for ALL, it becomes progressively more difficult to argue that society should withhold them from certain groups, particularly when those arguments are based on morally outdated religious beliefs informed to a great extent by the iron age superstitions.

I am fully confident that one day SSM will be the law of the land and no more noteworthy than mixed race marriage (except to the die-hard bigots). When that day arrives, those who fight it so fervently today (including the leaders of LDS Inc.) will be widely seen as the bigots they were.

You can speculate all you want. The fact of the matter is, while the trendline has steadily increased over the years, we are experiencing the first major drop (essentially erasing several years of increase acceptance). This signals either a temporary decline, or a tipping point where where people are finally seeing through the propaganda and seeing the movement for what it really is--an attempt to normalize sexual perversion. As the saying goes, "you can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

Here is what your speculation is up against: since SSM has become a salient public issue (as you call it), and at best reached 42% public approval and legalization in six states, there have been 30 states that have amended their constitutions to restrict marriage to a man and a women, 39 states have passed defense of marriage acts that do the same, and the federal government has also passed its own DOMA. And, of the 91 or so state and federal supreme court cases addressing the issue of SSM, only a handful of state courts ruled in favor of SSM (none federally), and at least one of those has since been overturned by the will of the people.

THanks, -Wade Englund-

[_wenglund]

You actually need more information if you want to conclude as you do - with all your learning - that gay marriage support has plummeted 10 points or so in the population in the span of 2 months.

I wasn't aware that I had concluded anything. Rather, I thought I had simply linked to an article and later cited specific statistical findings of the poll in question. Perhaps with all my learning (as you say) I fall well short of your abilities to read things that weren't said. Clearly, not only are you superior to me in terms of "political jargon", but you are superior to me in terms of even knowing what I have said and thought. And, to think that you were able instruct me on this absent your own peachy smugness. What a guy!!

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

[_JohnStuartMill]

Hey Wade, how many statistics classes have you passed?

[_wenglund]

Hey Wade, how many statistics classes have you passed?

Enough of them to know the difference between 42% and 33%.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

[_Morrissey]

You can speculate all you want. The fact of the matter is, while the trendline has steadily increased over the years, we are experiencing the first major drop (essentially erasing several years of increase acceptance). This signals either a temporary decline, or a tipping point where where people are finally seeing through the propaganda and seeing the movement for what it really is--an attempt to normalize sexual perversion. As the saying goes, "you can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

Here is what your speculation is up against: since SSM has become a salient public issue (as you call it), and at best reached 42% public approval and legalization in six states, there have been 30 states that have amended their constitutions to restrict marriage to a man and a women, 39 states have passed defense of marriage acts that do the same, and the federal government has also passed its own DOMA. And, of the 91 or so state and federal supreme court cases addressing the issue of SSM, only a handful of state courts ruled in favor of SSM (none federally), and at least one of those has since been overturned by the will of the people.

THanks, -Wade Englund-

I'd be interested in whatever evidence you can muster that we have reached a tipping point.

I have never claimed that there will not be short-term tactical defeats. I think I was quite clear that I think this will take some time, I'm guessing in terms of a decade or more.

I can also point to a variety of civil rights battles that have been waged in this country. The civil rights movement was a long, bitter fight with a number of tactical setbacks along the way. As time goes on, however, bigots will have an increasingly difficult time making the case that full civil rights should be withheld from certain groups because God doesn't like them as much as others.

[_Doctor Scratch]

Hi there, Wade. I noticed that you are talking about this poll as if it is reflective of nation-wide trends. With that in mind, I'm curious what you think about the fact that less than 900 people were polled...

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 895 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone June 12-16, 2009. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Poll.

So?

[_JohnStuartMill]

Hey Wade, how many statistics classes have you passed?

Enough of them to know the difference between 42% and 33%.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

You don't have to take any statistics classes to understand the difference between two percentages, Wade. Am I to take this to mean that you haven't passed ANY statistics classes?

[Gadianton]

I'd be interested in whatever evidence you can muster that we have reached a tipping point.

As previously intimated, as yet there isn't sufficient data points (to use "political jargon") to determine whether it is a tipping point or a temporary glitch. We'll just have to wait and see what the next several polls turn up.

I have never claimed that there will not be short-term tactical defeats. I think I was quite clear that I think this will take some time, I'm guessing in terms of a decade or more.

The issue came to the fore in the early 80's with highly publicized court cases on SSM. Over the last 27 or so years, a mere six states have legalized SSM. That is one-fifth the number of states that have amended their state constitutions limiting marriages to opposite-sex couples. So, I am thinking that you are way overly optimistic in your guess if you think that gay advocates will have nearly 5 times the success in the next 10 years as they had over the last 27 years.

I can also point to a variety of civil rights battles that have been waged in this country. The civil rights movement was a long, bitter fight with a number of tactical setbacks along the way. As time goes on, however, bigots will have an increasingly difficult time making the case that full civil rights should be withheld from certain groups because God doesn't like them as much as others.

I am aware of the propaganda fallaciously and offensively linking SSM to the civil rights movement, and not only thereby trivializing what people of color have suffered in the past, but also how unwarranted labels like" bigotry" and "homophobia" are tossed around for want of a legitimate case to be made.

It may interest you to know that while several state and federal supreme courts have ruled that opposite-sex marriage is a fundamental and civil right, they have also clearly and explicitly said that the same does not apply to SSM.

The notion that gays have equal rights or civil rights to be married is a fabrication intended to fool people into ignorantly granting the them the right they don't rightly have, nor ought they to have for reasons of state interest.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

[_wenglund]

You don't have to take any statistics classes to understand the difference between two percentages, Wade.

I am aware of that.

Am I to take this to mean that you haven't passed ANY statistics classes?

How many reading comprehension and critical thinking classes have you passed, JSM?

I ask because one cannot logically take that meaning from what I have said.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

[_wenglund]

Hi there, Wade. I noticed that you are talking about this poll as if it is reflective of nation-wide trends. With that in mind, I'm curious what you think about the fact that less than 900 people were polled...

Hey Scratch. I noticed that you jumped to the false conclusion that I think the latest Times poll is reflective of a nation-wide trend. I have said nothing that could rationally be interpreted as suggesting this. In fact, in several of my post I have indicated that one cannot currently tell from the latest Times poll results if there is a "trend" yet or not.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-