Bullseye
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:17 pm
I'm sure there are those who have read this thread or perused the subject matter and will also pooh-pooh what I've proposed and simply dismiss it out of hand. Certainly the faithful are not going to like the contents of this thread and what it suggests with regard to Smith's creative abilities to invent stories by borrowing content from other sources to enrich his own recipe.
But just consider the odds from this perspective:
What are the odds that the casualties would exceed 1,000 in number? Smith had a choice of either going above a thousand or below. Therefore, from this perspective let's say the odds are 50/50. That sounds fair and reasonable while talking about large numbers of people who died in a local battle such as the one in this story.
Now, what are the odds that Smith would pick the number 5? There were precisely 999 options in which to choose from (000 - 999) and it just so happened that Smith chose 5, all by itself. So that means the odds were 1/999 that Smith would pick the number in question.
1) First, it's 50/50 or a coin toss.
2) Second, it's 1 out of 999 that Smith hits the bullseye.
But just consider the odds from this perspective:
What are the odds that the casualties would exceed 1,000 in number? Smith had a choice of either going above a thousand or below. Therefore, from this perspective let's say the odds are 50/50. That sounds fair and reasonable while talking about large numbers of people who died in a local battle such as the one in this story.
Now, what are the odds that Smith would pick the number 5? There were precisely 999 options in which to choose from (000 - 999) and it just so happened that Smith chose 5, all by itself. So that means the odds were 1/999 that Smith would pick the number in question.
1) First, it's 50/50 or a coin toss.
2) Second, it's 1 out of 999 that Smith hits the bullseye.