Physics Guy wrote:I've never understood this objection. I'm not sure Pascal ever played roulette, but I expect he understood one part of its logic: you don't have to bet on only one number. You can bet on "all the reds" versus "all the blacks". In the same way you can bet on "some kind of God exists," with the "some kind of" wiggle room being just as wide or narrow as you wish.
So Pascal's Wager can certainly be a genuinely binary choice, if I simply choose to bet that way. Who cares how many possibilities there are, when I can combine as many of them as I like into one proposition by taking their logical union? I mean, that actually happens every time something is decided by coin toss. There are uncountably infinitely many ways that a coin can land. We just group them into two categories, "Heads" and "Tails", to make it a binary choice. And that works. If it works for coins, why can't it work for God, too?
Wiki wrote:Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas he stands to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).
You can't bet on both Christianity and Islam at the same time, it is binary. Well, you
can bet on them both, but not without disrespecting their unique messages. live as though Christ exists, and if Islam is right, that could merit substantially more torment for you in hell then had you just been a general non-believer. Believe in Allah but don't call upon the name of the Lord Jesus, then again. Hellfire. Eternity.
Giant Spiders.
The bet you're making, PG, is less like the bet Pascal made, and more like the bet I'm making as an atheist. You see a central theme in theism (I'm guessing, based on what I've read so far) a "redness" that is captured by many different faiths. And really, the various articulations of theism all break down into a single proposition: the ontological argument. It doesn't sound to me like you want to get all invested in particulars. But most religious people, like Pascal, want to get into particulars, and don't really see the possibility of beliefs outside their own with its particulars that make an afterlife good for them, and bad for everyone else, as real possibilities -- other faiths with their threats of eternal torment seem silly or evil.
Betting on "redness" makes the bet very general, perhaps there is an infinite being who brought about us all but very little else follows from there, including afterlives. If you were wrong and that's all at death, then a small loss. If you were right and there is an infinite being at the helm with some kind of great plan, you expect to be a part of that because you're above all the silly particulars, fire and brimstone, scorpions with giant stingers. But I too am making a similar bet. I don't believe there is a God, but something in cosmology or modal logic one day might sway me and I might think, maybe there is some kind of grand design? If there is and I'm wrong, having bet black not red, then this infinite being is unlikely to be a megalomaniac and so I feel like I've given seeking the truth a fair shot, and God's primary concern may not even have been my level of devotion and ass kissing. I feel like the general kind of God will work things out with me if I'm wrong and he does exist -- as I bet on black and not red.
But if particulars do matter, and if God really is going to have snakes biting me in the ground for eternity for not being Muslim (as one very nice Muslim lady once told me in a particularly endearing way) then betting red or black was the wrong bet. But the bet now is so complicated, it's worse than pricing a credit default swap on a CDO. At that point, the best bet is to just do what makes you happiest and most fulfilled in this life because there's no way to asses the odds of how to live from a probability standpoint. And further, if there's anything at all to existentialism, that living authentically is more important than solving a giant math problem, then the whole idea of optimizing my life program by actuarial science seems a little ridiculous. "Well done, thou good and faithful servant, for correctly calculating the net present value of eternal rewards and eternal threats, and making the most self-serving choice."