Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

[IHAQ]

There wasn't much in the way of detail in the Deseret News account. It was posted under the heading "News Capsules" with a half dozen other AP and UPI stories, all of two paragraphs each. But here it is, anyway.

Ireland plane crash kills 6

SHANNON AIRPORT, Ireland (UPI) - Rescue workers searched the wreckage of an air taxi and the surrounding area Saturday for the body of one of the six persons killed when the plane crashed in dense fog Friday night.
Five bodies were recovered from the wreck of the twin-engine Piper Navajo which crashed and burned two miles from Shannon after taking off from the airport here.

Thanks.

My thought was that it is likely that the newspaper Nelson read the morning of the 12th November 1976 in Utah was the Deseret News. I'm now wondering if the Shannon crash was on his mind whilst he made a similar journey. That could be the genesis of the story.

[DrW]

Through newspapers.com, I checked the Deseret News issue for any references to the previous day's aircraft incidences, as well as for information regarding the Kerr inaugural at Dixie College. It was the Saturday paper (49 pages), dated 13th of November 1976. Here is what little I found:

Page 2: There was a plane crash in Shannon, Ireland on Friday night. It was in a twin-engine Piper Navajo aircraft. Six people aboard were killed.

I’d be interested in hearing the detailed account of this accident.

The Navajo was introduced in 1967 and was not available with counter-rotating props until 1972. A heavily loaded Navajo (six on board) without counter-rotating props at low altitude would not have been the safest of aircraft in an engine-out situation, especially on take-off. Take-off is the most dangerous phase of the flight for an engine-out event. Close to the ground, there is not much time to react. Even if the flight crew does manage to stabilize the aircraft before losing too much altitude, regaining the climb rate needed to clear obstacles with a single engine may be impossible with a fully loaded aircraft (passengers and fuel).

Starting with the PA-30 family, Piper twins of the late 1960s and 1970s, without counter-rotating props, had a reputation of being difficult to handle in engine-out situations. The Twin Comanche (PA-30 and predecessor to the PA-31 Navajo), for example, was especially unforgiving of those who did not immediately take control and jump on the opposite rudder in engine-out situations.

A dentist who was an experienced pilot, a good man, and well respected member of our ward in the 1990s was killed when he lost control of his Piper Seneca Twin (PA-34 and another PA-30 family aircraft with early model control complaints). Below is a passage from an AOPA review of the Piper Twin Comanche describing the problem.

"While the denser air near the surface made for a maximum of thrust asymmetry, and therefore an excellent demonstration of control problems, some Twin Comanche students and instructors found the experience far too realistic. By 1967, 13 fatal training accidents had occurred in Twin Comanches. By 1971, 40 fatal accidents had taken place. Many of them involved stall/spin situations, and crash investigations indicated that the airplane had an unusually strong inclination to enter an unrecoverable flat spin after slowing below VMC* with an inoperative engine."

Regarding the subject at hand: as mentioned upthread, spins are prohibited in the Navajo. These same kinds of engine-out control issues are why a pilot would not try to dive in a "death spiral" in an attempt to extinguish a fire in an "exploded" engine which, as claimed by Russell M. Nelson, was spewing out burning oil and avgas, engulfing the plane in flames.

Aircraft wings lose lift in a banked turn. The steeper the bank angle, as in a spiral, the more lift lost and the more difficult the twin aircraft with one operating engine would be to control. In an engine-out situation, pilots like to stay close to straight and level, with the possible exception of a slight (5 degree or so) bank in the direction of the good engine. Any turns are made using as little aileron as possible, and again, preferably in the direction of the good engine. If there is sufficient altitude above ground, a shallow dive is a good way to maintain airspeed while reducing the load on the good engine.

If Russell M. Nelson's plane had experienced an engine out event anywhere near Delta on a cold November day in Utah, a gentle turn towards the airport to line up for a straight-in approach, and a slow bleeding off of altitude to retain airspeed while not overloading the good engine, should have left plenty of time for the pilot to advise ATC of his intent, contact Delta Unicom, and make an uneventful landing. Standard descent rate for most light aircraft is 500 feet per minute. If the aircraft was even at a minimum 5,000 feet above ground level once stabilized, there would have been at least ten minutes to take care of communications and set up the approach.
________________________________

ETA: *VMC is the V-number for the minimum airspeed at which the aircraft is deemed controllable, or "Minimum Controllable" airspeed.

[kairos]

Thanx again Dr W! Terrific analysis!
k

[DrW]

The Bureau of Aircraft Accident Archives < https://www.baaa-acro.com/ > maintains a searchable data base that archives aircraft accidents worldwide by date, aircraft type, registration, operator, region, and number of fatalities, if any, along with other search parameters. Details and narratives from NTSB notifications, or other official accident reports, are included in a Details section.

The quote below is from the Details of a Navajo Chieftain that lost a wing flap in flight. The pilot declared an emergency and made a forced landing without fatalities. This situation would be pretty much equivalent to losing an engine through an explosion and fire, declaring an emergency to ATC, and making a forced landing as happened in Russell M. Nelson's story. Both events significantly affected the airworthiness of the respective aircraft and required an emergency landing not at an airport. Had the Israeli aircraft not been a total loss, both would have required major repair and re-certification of airworthiness.

En route, the pilot informed ATC that he lost a flap and elected to make an emergency landing. The twin engine airplane crash landed north of Lake Tiberias (Sea of Galilee) and was damaged beyond repair. All occupants escaped with no or minor injuries.

If the aircraft from Russell M. Nelson's story had landed in a farmer's field, it would have required major repair as a result of the engine "explosion" and subsequent fire, as well as the fact that the aircraft with a burned out engine would have required recovery including partial disassembly and transport for repair. Alternatively, if the damage were typical of low wing twins landing in fields (as shown below), it could well have been a write off. The image is of a fully airworthy Navajo Chieftain that landed in a farmer’s field with no fatalities.



This aircraft was fully operational when it landed. No burned out engine. No lost wing flap. The pilots were suspected of drug trafficking and apparently landed to evade identification by a police aircraft. When the plane was finally found, the pilots were gone and so were the drugs, if any. The damage was due to the ground surface conditions. The aircraft was assumed to be a write off.

Had RMNs aircraft really landed in a farmer’s field, especially when limping along on one engine, making it difficult to maintain wings level during the landing flare, this kind of damage would be anticipated. (Note the damage to the nearside wing tip with engines operational - as indicated by the damage to all three prop blades.)

Even without this likely kind of damage and without personal injuries, the required notification of the NTSB because of the engine fire, and the required re-certification of airworthiness after major repair and reassembly, would mean the event that Russell M. Nelson described in 1976 would have been picked up in the baaa-arco data base.

Below is a listing of the Piper Navajo Chieftain accidents reported worldwide during 1976, as contained in this data base, including the last report of 1975 and the first report of 1977.



Dr. Moore provided documentation showing that the Navajo Chieftain was one of the aircraft that SkyWest flew on the SLC to Cedar City and St. George routes in 1976. The history section of the SkyWest website describes the acquisition of Navajo Chieftains and images from the time show these aircraft on the SkyWest ramp.

A search of the data base by Operator for SkyWest from 1974 onwards returned only three accidents, all in Twin Turboprop Swearingen commuter aircraft. The accident with no fatalities was attributed to flight crew failure to maintain adequate altitude. The same could be said for the hapless pilot in Russell M. Nelson’s story who ended up landing in a field instead of at Delta Municipal Airport which would have been his alternative. The three SkyWest accidents are listed below.



Of the approximate 3,400 Navajos built between 1967 and 1984, approximately 1,500 were Chieftains. A total of 149 Navajo Chieftain accidents were reported in North America from 1974 until the present. The total number Navajo Chieftain fatalities recorded in North America from 1974 to present was 308. In North America, 28% of the reported accidents involving Navajo Chieftains did not involve fatalities.

Had the events Russell M. Nelson described actually occurred, the resulting NTSB notifications would have appeared in the www.baaa-acro.com data base. The only accidents reported for SkyWest were the three listed above.

No Navajo Chieftain accidents were reported in the State of Utah over the period from 1974 to present.

[Res Ipsa]

Aw the hell with it. Not my circus. I'm out of this project.

[Lem]

Welcome to Fact Checking the Fact Checkers. Tonight -- BREAKING NEWS. Definitive evidence has been found (again) proving for once and for all that the Nelson Flight Story is a hoax!

But wait. Here at Fact Checking the Fact Checkers, we check facts. We trust no one. Just like Mulder.

So, who is this newly discovered bureau that we've never heard of before?

Well, it's one guy in Geneva. https://www.baaa-acro.com/about His ambitious and praiseworthy "goal" is to collect over 100 years of aircraft accidents worldwide. So far, he has collected over 27,000 "events" (term not defined) over this 100 year period. Is that lots? Is that not lots?

How would we test that? Well, for the last 10 years, the NTSB's newer CAROL database lists over 18,000 accidents and incidents worldwide. So, that would leave only 9000 for the other 90 years, or 900 per year. Might be a little light. What to do? What to do?

Hmm. I know. More Fact Checking!! (It's right there in in the title....)

Well, we're really interested in 1976, so how about we check the completeness of the Bureau's database for 1976? How would we do that?

How about comparing the total number of "events" in the Bureau's database in the U.S. for the year 1976 with the NTSB's database of accident (& selected incidents) for the year 1976? Might give an idea of how complete the Bureau's database really is for the year we care about.

The Bureau's database lists a total of 89 "events" in the U.S. for 1976.

The NTSB's database lists 4367 accidents (& selected incidents) in the U.S. for 1976.

Fact Checking the Fact Checkers Verdict: The Bureau (i.e., some guy in Geneva) database has only 2% of the accidents ( & selected incidents) in the NTSB's database for the U.S. in 1976. The Bureau's database is useless for verifying accidents or incidents in the U.S. in 1976.

Tonight's Fact Checking Tip is the same as it ever was: A search in a database means nothing unless you have verified which information it does and does not contain.

This has been: Fact Checking the Fact Checkers. And remember: if you want to be right, check, check, check. (Including fact checking Fact Checking the Fact Checkers.)

Happy Checking!!

Oh for god's sake, Res Ipsa, could you stop being a jerk for just one day?

[IHAQ]

No Navajo Chieftain accidents were reported in the State of Utah over the period from 1974 to present.

Thanks for putting a shift in on this Doc. I appreciate it.

At this stage it’s beginning to look more likely we’ll find Nephite Swords in upstate New York than a shred of corroboration that Russell M. Nelson was involved in a near death plane incident/accident on his way to Dixie in 1976.

[Physics Guy]

I'm sorry to see angry sarcasm between people I respect. The difference between us thinking that Nelson probably made this up, though, and an airtight proof that he definitely did make this up, seems important.

It's important for the impact of the episode. "Bitter antimormons accuse prophet of lying" is a headline most Mormons could easily ignore, I expect, but catching the Mormon prophet in a bald-faced public lie, with an airtight case showing that''s what it is, would be a much bigger deal. Nobody claims that Nelson is perfect, but it has to be hard to square any faith in him as any kind of a prophet at all with this kind of making stuff up.

The difference between "airtight case" and "we know it" may be important for how people here interpret each other's posts, though, too.

If I'm a DA focused on trying to nail some elusive mob boss then I'm going to be driven nuts by detectives who keep turning up stuff that I can't use in court. Don't they understand what we're trying to do, here?

But if on the other hand I'm a historian trying to find out whatever I can about a forgotten event, then I'm going to be happy for any scraps of evidence that get contributed, even if they're inconclusive in themselves, because every little bit helps to fill in the picture.

This little episode could be seen either way, I think. I don't know how realistic it is to hope we could ever make an airtight case against Nelson; maybe it's so impossible that there's no point in trying. It doesn't seem obviously impossible to me, though, so at this point I'm sympathetic to Res Ipsa's throwing cold water on things that don't make the case airtight. At the same time we're talking about a minor incident that happened, or didn't, 45 years ago. It's borderline history. So I really appreciate all the stuff that DrW has found to pull it further into the light.

[Res Ipsa]

.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

RI, did your FOIA turn anything up?

- Doc