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According to the Pew U.S. Religious Landscape Survey the replacement rate of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has dropped to 80%. That means that for every five members who leave Mormonism behind four new converts join the Church.

In 2001, the CUNY Religious Identification Survey had found that Mormons, as well as Jehavah’s Witnesses, recruited large numbers of converts but lost members at the same rates. If the Pew Forum’s findings are correct then the LDS Church is no longer replacing its losses in the United States.

The Pew Forum surveyed 35,000 respondents, which is a magnificent asset for religion researchers because even relatively small religions will be represented with sufficiently large sub-samples yielding reasonable margins of error. The U.S. Religious Landscape Survey found that 1.7% of adult Americans are Mormon, which means that the sample contains 595 Mormons.

A random stratified sample of 512 respondents would yield a margin of error of +/-4%.

In this sample, the Pew researchers found that about 162 respondents had left Mormonism but only 132 had joined, which yields a deficit of 33 people (~5.5%). I am not sure but in the absence of information to the contrary, I am assuming that joining and leaving Mormonism applies to the life time of the respondents. Even so, that figure amounts to a substantial deficit.

Just for fun, lets consider the best and worst case scenarios in light of the samples margin of error. In the best case, which assumes the lowest possible number of departers and the highest possible number of converts, the Mormon replacement rate might exceed 1.1. That would mean that eleven members join for every ten that leave.

On the other hand, the worst case scenario would depress the replacement rate to less than 58% where less than six people would convert for every ten departures.

However, the mean departure rate of 80% is most likely the correct estimate. If that number were correct, and that is what the evidence says, it would indicate a substantial demographic challenge for LDS leaders and the Mormon community.

PS: This is a self-identification survey. Respondents will reveal their views of themselves, which means that there will be any number of people who will say that they are no longer Mormons but have not mailed a resignation letter to Salt Lake.

Mike Reed wrote:I don't know if it is accurate, but the article seems to overlook membership that comes via child-birth.

Bond...James Bond wrote:

Mike Reed wrote:I don't know if it is accurate, but the article seems to overlook membership that comes via child-birth.

Which is why they want to pound the issue of having kids, that's the only church growth when one person leaves for every person who joins.

Of course what about the people who die?

Does this formula look correct?

(Deaths+Church resignations)-(births+conversions)=Church growth or church loss

charity wrote:

ludwigm wrote:The modern audience will not listen the message without material proof. The majority of them.
The minority? Yes, there are millions who accept it after six half-hour lesson. What do You think, why do 80% of them leave in the first year? No, they are not sinners, they are not offended. Simply they look behind the show-window and see those unimportant things.

The Book of Mormon is about the message of the Gospel. It isn't a geography book. People should be joining the Church because the Holy Spirit testifies to them of the truth of the Gospel of Christ. Not for any other reason. If they have that witness and join why do they leave? Because some people join for the wrong reasons. Because it takes work and effort to maintain a a testimony, and some people lose theirs. Because some sin. Because some become offended. Because some can't leave the pride of the world. Lots of reasons. And none of them have anything to do with where a physical location of a Book of Mormon site is.

If they have that witness and join why do they leave? Because some people join for the wrong reasons. Because it takes work and effort to maintain a a testimony, and some people lose theirs. Because some sin. Because some become offended. Because some can't leave the pride of the world. Lots of reasons. And none of them have anything to do with where a physical location of a Book of Mormon site is.

it takes work and effort to maintain a a testimony.

SatanWasSetUp wrote:Charity said:

it takes work and effort to maintain a a testimony.

I agree with Charity on this. Why do you think that is? If something is so obviously true, even the one and only truth, why is it so hard? And do you think it is harder to maintain a testimony if you're a Mormon as opposed to say the Jehovah's Witnesses? They both have about the same resignation rates.

John Larsen wrote:

SatanWasSetUp wrote:Charity said:

it takes work and effort to maintain a a testimony.

I agree with Charity on this. Why do you think that is? If something is so obviously true, even the one and only truth, why is it so hard? And do you think it is harder to maintain a testimony if you're a Mormon as opposed to say the Jehovah's Witnesses? They both have about the same resignation rates.

I also agree. However, I don't think it take ongoing effort to maintain a belief in things that are clearly true.