My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

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simon southerton
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My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by simon southerton »

I have shared this OP on several Facebook groups and exmormon reddit, but wanted to post it here because I value the insights of the seasoned and crusty critics who frequent the group. Also, I wanted to give a big shout out to the Mormon zealots who read this board and regularly send screenshots to my TBM family, in a futile attempt to harm my relationship with them. Classy work guys.

I rode a DNA hobby horse out of the Mormon Church in 1998, after I discovered Native Americans and Polynesians have no ancient Jewish ancestry. Zilch. I soon realised the Book of Mormon was fiction, so I saddled up. Another hobby horse I have enjoyed riding since my epiphany, is studying church membership data. I enjoy tracking the decline of the LDS Church. The church does enormous damage to many mixed faith families (over 85% of the church) so the smaller the church, the fewer families are damaged, and I feel good about that. This post is for those of you who would like a ride on my new hobby horse.

First up, it’s important to remember, just as it has hidden unsavoury parts of its history, the Mormon Church hides unfavourable membership data. The leaders have known since around 1998 that the church was struggling, and right now they know the church is effectively shrinking globally. The leaders know precisely, week to week, how many people are attending. They have an army of volunteers who feed them that data. But like any corporation obsessed with its PR image, church leaders are wary of sharing bad news with the workers.

Once upon a time a mountain of statistical data was presented at general conference. We used to hear about the numbers of deacons, teachers, priests, elders and high priests and seminary and institute students. The church seemed to be blossoming as a rose. But gradually, trends started heading south, and less and less information was given out.

People interested in tracking the true growth of the church have known for years that the impressive increase in total membership reported each year at conference is not a true reflection of the health of the church. A very large proportion of people who are baptised soon stop attending. For example, the church claims 62% of Tongans are Mormons, yet on the latest Tongan census only 18% of Tongans declared allegiance to the church. The LDS Church is counting 44% of Tongans as members when they attend another church! The church has their names, but their hearts and bodies are elsewhere.

A much more useful measure of the true growth of the church is the increase in the number of new wards and branches, which reflects bums on seats. This metric tells a very different story to the total membership numbers. The attached graph shows the annual increase in wards and branches (units) since 1995 (the data for 2021 is an estimate based on the first 6 months of this year). In the 1990s the church was adding around 900 new units every year, an annual increase of about 3%. Since the turn of the century the annual increase has averaged about 250 units, or just over 0.8%. That’s less than the global population growth rate (1.1%). This means the church is declining as a proportion of the world’s population. I am convinced the rapid uptake of the internet globally during the 90s, giving members unprecedented access to true church history, was the major cause of the dramatic slowdown. This has essentially been confirmed by church leaders—who admitted in 2011 that the church was experiencing a period of apostasy—by the publishing of a series of essays, from 2014 onwards, that attempt to be more honest about the church’s past.

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However, by 2017 the leaders knew they were dangerously close to reporting a decline in the number of church units for the first time in living memory. Something drastic had to be done, and it happened in 2018, but hardly a soul is aware of what went on.

First up the leaders dropped the statistical report from the 2018 April general conference onwards. Curious members were forced to hunt around on the church’s convoluted website to find the data. This change was made because the leaders didn’t want the members to pay attention to it anymore. The data wasn’t faith-promoting enough for a membership convinced they belonged to one of the fastest growing churches on the earth, a claim that has not been true for about two decades.

While the church no longer wanted to publicise the number of wards and branches created each year, a few zealous Mormon stats nerds were regularly publishing unit growth data on their own websites. In 2018 the church’s lawyers, Kirton and McConkie, wrote stern letters to the webmasters of these sites, requesting they cease and desist publishing this data. Most bowed their heads and said yes. But thankfully one brave soul began to report the creation and closure of missions, stakes, wards and branches around the world on a daily basis! Initially he was doing this by tedious daily comparisons of the maps at the LDS Meetinghouse locator website to identify any changes. I believe he has a mole these days. http://www.fullerconsideration.com/units.php

The most dramatic change the leaders made in 2018, however, was to make it easier for smaller church units to survive. The average unit has an attendance of roughly 125 people. Once you get below about 70 or 80 active members you run into serious problems filling leadership positions and members get burned out and leave. In 2018 the church shaved an hour off church and axed several youth and priesthood leadership positions. The result was that wards and branches could be smaller and survive. This meant fewer unit closures and it made it easier to create new units. Not surprisingly, unit growth bounced back, topping 400 in 2019, but it soon dropped back (see graph).

The 2018 changes only buy time. You cannot keep hiding the fact that fewer people are turning up to church each week. Once average unit attendance drops to the new cut off, closures are inevitable. I believe we are on the cusp of seeing a decline in the number of wards and branches globally. Or, perhaps—maybe—the church will come up with another way to hide the problem. Giving the other half of the church the priesthood springs to mind.

There are, however, few signs of the decline halting. The church now regularly closes wards and stakes in California, just closed three stakes in Japan and over 50% of its units in Armenia vanished this year. The closure of units in South Korea (40% since 2000) and Japan (20%) shows no sign of abating and Europe has been in decline for decades. There is also almost no growth in South America, traditionally a solid growth area for the church.

Recently, most of the growth of the church can be attributed to West Africa, particularly Nigeria, which added a staggering 149 units in 2018 and 73 in 2019. For the last few decades, the church in Nigeria has grown at a rate of about 8% annually. This is unlikely to be sustainable as internet access is skyrocketing in Nigeria and they speak English.

I have watched the data a bit more closely in Australia. In the 1990s the church was adding about 25 new units per year. Everything ground to a halt at the end of the century. It has taken another 20 years for the church to add another 25 units, and the vast majority of those new units are Samoan or Tongan units, due to their higher birth rate and immigration. The LDS Church is clearly in significant decline in the broader Australian population. Meanwhile, our Australian Post-Mormon Facebook community is flourishing.

Thankfully, the Australian government publishes more useful data on LDS church growth than the church does. The Australian census collects data on religious affiliation and the data backs up the conclusions drawn from the church unit trends. Since the turn of the century the number of Australians willing to confess they are LDS on the census has grown at about the same rate as the Australian population. Between the 2011 and 2016 census, however, the percentage of Australians who said they were LDS declined for the first time. I expect that trend to continue in this year’s census.

The last 18 months will have been particularly unsettling for many Australian Mormons. Having just recovered from the revelation that the church was hoarding over $100 billion in its tax-avoiding Ensign Peak slush fund, the pandemic arrived. Australia followed the science and has recorded just over 900 deaths since the pandemic began. This was not because we are more spread out here. We are even more urbanised than the US. It was because our scientists and our state and national governments were far more united. Watching US Mormons overwhelmingly jump on the anti-science Trump bandwagon, whine about social distancing and masks, erosion of individual rights and religious freedom, and now oppose vaccination in large numbers, reflects very poorly on the church. If I was still a member, I would be embarrassed to tick the LDS box on the census.

The best indication of the health of the church is, of course, the true number of people actively attending and how that is changing year to year. This is the data church leaders have always kept secret, but it is inevitable that this type of data will escape, and in 2020 it did. In September 2020, attendance data for the last 10 years for the 46 stakes in the UK was leaked, and its worse than anyone could have imagined.

The church currently claims 188,187 members in the UK, however attendance in 2020 was only 27,697. This represents an astonishingly low activity rate of just 14.7%. To make matters worse, attendance has declined by 13% since 2011 when the activity rate was 17.0%. The average attendance at church units in the UK is currently 87. Based on the UK data, I would estimate the global activity rate for the church is likely to be in the vicinity of 20 to 25%, or between 3 and 4 million, a far lower activity rate than most folk have imagined.

It is staggering to see how effectively an obscenely rich US corporation can conceal truth from its members. But thankfully, as we have just witnessed, truth has a habit of getting out. We are past peak Mormonism and its warms my cold apostate heart.

I hope you enjoyed the ride.
IHAQ
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by IHAQ »

Great OP Simon.

I have long maintained the Church has 30,000 ish active members in the UK based on the assumption of a 20% activity rate (drawn from the leaked area presidency report from quite a few years ago). Interesting to see that the latest Leak shows it is even lower than that. Do you have a link to the 2020 leaked data as I would be interested in taking a look at it?

The other aspect that would be interesting is the profile of the attrition rates between male and female. I strongly suspect that the Church is shifting towards a higher and higher proportion of females and that this shift is behind a number of initiatives to involve females in more leadership adjacent type roles (Area advisors as an example) whilst stopping short of allowing them the priesthood so they could actually take the leadership roles on directly.
dastardly stem
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by dastardly stem »

Excellent post, Simon. Stakes discontinued in the last 5 years according to ldschurchgrowth

Stakes Discontinued in 2021
Stakes

1. Pocatello Idaho YSA 2nd
2. Musashino Japan
3. Saitama Japan
4. Fujisawa Japan
5. San Diego California North
6. Santee California

Stakes Discontinued in 2020
Stakes

1. Granada Hills California
2. Kirkland Washington
3. Placentia California

Stakes Discontinued in 2019
Stakes

1. Santiago Chile Gran Avenida
2. Santiago Chile Las Araucarias
3. Santiago Chile O'Higgins
4. Pingtung Taiwan
5. Torrance California

Stakes Discontinued in 2018
Stakes


1. Neumünster Germany
2. San Cristóbal Venezuela
3. Madero México Ampliación
4. Monterrey México Morelos
5. Monterrey México Paraíso
6. Tampico México Chairel
7. Coatzacoalcos México Puerto
8. Minatitlán México
9. Minatitlán México Tecnológico (reorg. as district)
10. Winneba Ghana (reorg. as district)
11. Los Mochis Mexico (reorg. as district)
12. Mexico City Pantitlan
13. Mexico City Xalostoc
14. Mexico City Centenario

Stakes Discontinued in 2017
Stakes

1. Guatemala City Alameda
2. Seoul Korea Dongdaemun
3. Mazatlán México West
4. Garden Grove California
5. Ciudad Obregón México Yaqui
6. Golden Colorado

6 of the 34 closures have been in California
13 in Mexico
3 in Japan
3 in Chile
1 in several other spots.

The Church has 1,481,530 members in Mexico, with an estimated 227,750 attending, based on the number of units (1843). 15.37% activity rate.

California has 756,507 members with an estimated 170,650 attending. 22.56% activity rate.

Utah has 2,126,216 members with an estimated 752,850 attending. 35.41% activity rate.

You mentioned the UK, Australia, and California. Other areas hurting (as in likely decreasing) in various ways: Mexico, Chile, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Venezuela, Uruguay, Argentina, Italy, Germany, Portugal, and the Netherlands among others that may be seen as less impactful.
Last edited by dastardly stem on Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DrW
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by DrW »

Simon Southerton wrote: It is staggering to see how effectively an obscenely rich US corporation can conceal truth from its members. But thankfully, as we have just witnessed, truth has a habit of getting out. We are past peak Mormonism and its warms my cold apostate heart.
Thank you for another well researched and well written contribution to the board. My sentiments exactly.

Symptoms of a shrinking Mormon Church are evident even in Utah. Questions related to ground truthing of Russell M. Nelson's Doors of Death story recently prompted in-depth conversations about the LDS Church with my relatives who live in Southern Utah. They now belong to one of several "fellowship groups" in the area comprised of Mormons and former Mormons who have become disillusioned with the SLC administered version of Mormonism.

They believe that the SLC leadership is in general apostacy and strive, as a group, to return to the teachings and ethos of the LDS Church of the mid 20th century. While they admit to the influence of Denver Snuffer in what they call their "movement", they do not consider themselves "Snufferites", but dedicated participants in an effort to return to what they believe is classical Mormonism.

They hold meetings in members homes, as we did in my rural branch growing up. The disclosure of the 100+ billion dollar holdings of a Church that had earlier asked for their free labor as janitors apparently helped swell the movement's ranks. They believe that their movement is a problem for the Mormon Church in southern Utah and elsewhere and take some pride in that. My relatives are quite outspoken about their disillusionment and disappointment in the SLC LDS Church.
Last edited by DrW on Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Craig Paxton
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by Craig Paxton »

Extremely informative post Simon, thanks for sharing. Your post warmed my stone cold apostate heart as well. Seeing the church decline in two places that I am invested in, the U.K and Oz, two places that the church can not afford to see go into decline, is further confirmation of the failed benefits that Mormonism claims to offer the world. The church is selling but no one is buying. With each passing year, fewer and fewer humans the world over are interested in their so called plan of happiness. There is no demand for it within an informed and educated society, for the verifiably false "truth claims" made by Mormonism particularly when coupled with the high demands that the church makes on families both in time and financial impact of having to fork over 10% of their gross income in return for what exactly? The false hope of eternal life?

Another sign of the decline of the church is the fact that in order to keep their salesforce numbers up they have had to lower the age at which both males and females can, cough cough, serve from 19 and 21 to 18 and 19 respectfully. This move was twofold, to indoctrinate the younger boys and girls before they could critically think their way out of the church and at least initially swell their salesforce numbers. The move seems to have backfired. While this move garnered some initial growth to their salesforce even that growth is now in decline, no where coming to the numbers that Holland prophesied they would achieve. The added pressure of Missionary life on a younger immature salesforce created its own set of problems. A surge in mental issues, immature boys returning home early, rejected and feeling defeated intensified these RM's leaving the church in ever increasing numbers. So what did the church do to solve this new issue? A revelation, more changes so that mommy could be in weekly zoom contact to encourage their brood stay on their missions. Boom.

To further advance the decline of the church the pandemic has been an accelerant as even many active attending Mormons were able to experience the joy and freedom of a meeting free year for the very first time in their lives. The true joys of being able to sleep in on a Sunday morning, relaxing with the NY Times and or their favorite Sunday read (certainly not scripture) and having more family time in a relaxed setting, unlike what the church alternative offers. Many will never return after experiencing this level of freedom.

So yes, we live in an amazing time. Being able to witness, first hand, the decline of Mormonism before our very eyes. While the corporation has enough funds to sustain itself far into the future, with the whistle blower leaked of $100 Billion stock fund being only the tip of their financial iceberg, (an inside source has told me that it's much closer to the $800 billion mark) the church will continue to survive in some form. But the good news is that families are waking up to the false claims and many are finding life outside of the church to be much more authentic and better than the ill-fitting, uncomfortable, one size fits all life offered by the Mormon church.
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Shulem
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by Shulem »

This is all wonderful news and it warms my heart too.

Oh, how I would love to resign my membership all over again! What a delight it was to submit my resignation formerly in writing and to have stated affirmatively that there is no king's name in Facsimile No. 3. Can you just imagine someone replying and bearing testimony that they know there is a king's name in the writing? There are probably Mormons dumb enough to actually do that.

And, it warms my heart to think of all the money I've saved by not paying tithing for all these years. Robbing Mormon God was the best financial decision I've ever made! It's like the real windows of heaven showering blessing down upon me.

I feel blessed.

:lol:
dastardly stem
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by dastardly stem »

I wouldn't say the picture is all that bleak for the Church. But as Simon points out there are plenty of signs of trouble, if the Church assumes a stance of needing growth.

Overall, my estimates put the to some degree activity membership around 4,289,062. In 2015 that estimate was 4,137,163. An increase of 151,899. Most growth can be found in highly populated areas of Africa--like Nigeria, DRC, Ghana (indeed those countries alone increased by 62,150 in active members, roughly 41% of total increase)...But without Africa, I'm guessing the key number of active members would have gone down. Also this suggests the activity rate has fallen overall.

The added element to consider is the Church doesn't seem all that concerned. It has it's base. It's getting billions annually from them and adds much by way of for profit business interests. It may be worth considering that the Church isn't really interested in getting larger. It may accept any growth without hesitation but it doesn't seem like its as high a priority as it used to be. The real priority is gaining wealth, it seems. And unless that priority gets negatively impacted I doubt we'll see much concern from the Church.

Granted the Church still likes growth and is happy to report it. It seems interested in doing so to keep its members happy and confident, which in turn leads to members continuing to contribute. Added to that is the periodic, or sometimes more frequent, donation-like activities the Church does. reporting those as widely as possible, really pleases the base. To the base, the money the Church gives to various peoples and projects looks really good.
Last edited by dastardly stem on Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Shulem
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by Shulem »

Craig Paxton wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:59 pm
To further advance the decline of the church the pandemic has been an accelerant as even many active attending Mormons were able to experience the joy and freedom of a meeting free year for the very first time in their lives. The true joys of being able to sleep in on a Sunday morning, relaxing with the NY Times and or their favorite Sunday read (certainly not scripture) and having more family time in a relaxed setting, unlike what the church alternative offers. Many will never return after experiencing this level of freedom.

Indeed! And, I don't mean to be crude or derail the thread but also think of all the teenage boys and girls (yes, yes, girls do it too) that have naturally learned more about their bodies and been able to freely masturbate without worrying about the bishop asking them if they've touched themselves inappropriately! Now that we have a new generation of boys and girls growing up and learning that their bodies belong to them and NOT the church, they will continue to masturbate and once the church loses the ability to control the crotch the party is over! Those boys and girls will grow up to spend their money somewhere else rather than turn it over to the Church.
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Dr Moore
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by Dr Moore »

Thanks for sharing this, Simon. It helped make a couple of connections I hadn’t thought about before. At one time in 2019, I analyzed membership numbers and also concluded 3-4 million active members.

With the whistleblower leak, we know that the church took i. approx. $8-9 billion in tithing in 2019. I’ve been wanting to take that figure and study GDP per capita across membership geographies, out of curiosity over what the numbers might imply vis a vis a proxy for tithe paying rates among active members. My thesis is that even the active membership is going to be further diluted by PIMO attendance.


Separately, what do you make of this analysis, published at Interpreter, which claims to have been inspired by your work on DNA? The author calculates 1 in 1000 odds that the Book of Mormon can still be historical even with the absence of DNA evidence in support of the lineal claims of native Americans a.k.a. Lamanites.

https://interpreterfoundation.org/estim ... vidence-4/
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Re: My "LDS Church Growth" Hobby Horse

Post by kairos »

Of the 4M or so "active" is there a number on temple recommend holding saints?

just askin
thanx

k
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