DiscussMormonism.com

People are leaving the church, non-Mormons are moving into the area, and the church is failing to convert people long term (most "converts" don't even last a year). My prediction is that it will drive more and more people away from the church, since the "bubble" that keeps people involved in family and church/community activities is going to be popped.

Is it factually true that most converts in Utah don't last a year?

Utah has (allegedly) a population of circa 3,000,000.
London by comparison has a population of circa 8,000,000.

Utah is the 13th biggest American state by area but the 34th by population.

More useless facts to follow...

malaise wrote:People are leaving the church, non-Mormons are moving into the area, and the church is failing to convert people long term (most "converts" don't even last a year). My prediction is that it will drive more and more people away from the church, since the "bubble" that keeps people involved in family and church/community activities is going to be popped.

I believe you are quickly discounting the many more being born to active LDS families. Currently, there are more Mormons than ever before. Any ward I have attended in the past 5 years is always at least full if not overfilled. Add to the fact that if two LDS parents have 5 kids which is typical and 3 of the five stay then it is still relatively strong growth. So if 1 million Utahns are active or semi-active Mormons you can expect 500,000 more actives each generation on the low end of the spectrum on top of the baseline one million.

As far as population growth in Utah goes, it is rapid but only in the sense of percentages. The population is already terribly small. There are more people in the pgh metro area than the whole state of Utah. Utah has a very insignificant population. So outsiders moving in appears to not be a notable issue.

Add to the fact, that cultural Mormons are becoming more acceptable, ala catholicism and judaism and the LDS Church is likely retain even more membership.

I am afraid your prediction has little merit with the current variables.

Aren't LDS birth rates in decline? They've been fighting against responsible family planning for years, but I don't think they'll be able to do much about the inevitable cultural shift toward fewer children per couple.

I think Utah pop is 2.2 M

zeezrom wrote:I think Utah pop is 2.2 M

Its closer to the 3 million said, but not there yet, it seems. The latest census estimates is 2.83 million.

I love these types of predictions though. So the Church is going to plain disappear? Be wiped off the face of the earth? Interesting take.

stemelbow wrote:

zeezrom wrote:I think Utah pop is 2.2 M

Its closer to the 3 million said, but not there yet, it seems. The latest census estimates is 2.83 million.

I love these types of predictions though. So the Church is going to plain disappear? Be wiped off the face of the earth? Interesting take.

Of course not. Even The Shakers are still around. Granted, there are only three of them left, but still...

stemelbow wrote:
I love these types of predictions though. So the Church is going to plain disappear? Be wiped off the face of the earth? Interesting take.

I think it's hard to predict, but the LDS faith becoming so small as to be insignificant - think RLDS - is a plausible possibility many generations down the road. It already is relatively tiny, but benefits from having its seat of power in the dominant nation on the planet. A total wipeout that isn't predicated on some broader civilizational collapse seems much more remote. Zoroastrians are dying on the vine, but in other news Zoroastrians are still around.

In answer to the op's title....

um... it will get better.

zeezrom wrote:I think Utah pop is 2.2 M

I am guesstimating roughly 1 million of the 2.8 million population is active or semi-active LDS.