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As an observation of a latent variable, the unfolding drama over the imploding FLDS church has parallels to Kirtland. Only 1/3 of the saints remained after Joseph Smith went on the lam following the banking fiasco and other unsavory charges. What we have on our hands is a similar situation happening now. Those FLDS who have stuck with Jeffs and those who are leaving. To further the schism now are sexual prohibitions and a reset button on all sealings. The FLDS organization will remain after these events have become history, with Jeffs rotting in jail, hopefully suffering from serial episodes of anal prolapse. What form the FLDS culture will take is remaining to be seen.

So, aside from Jeffs, what other lines of differentiation can be predicted? Others on boards I follow are predicting a Jonestown result. In this day and age I see a further degradation, the FLDS taking on a kernel of the membership it once had. The Arizona strip will be more open, but I suspect it will be largely regarded as the Appalachia of the west.

Easy. Jeffs has given about 12 failed prophecies. No problem for most FLDS, who "explain away" his failed prophecies just as LDS explain away Joseph Smith's failed prophecies: as all "conditional" and the conditions were never met. However the NO SEX UNTIL WARREN IS FREE rule just wont' wash! There is NO WAY all these polygamist men are going to be spanking their monkeys while they've got gorgeous young nubile teen brides (and their own daughters) in the same household! NO WAY!!!!! Jeffs has just "prophesied" away most of his following.

The FLDS will break up into sects: Warren Jeff die-hards will remain loyal to him and continue to control the Colorado City properties, new "Prophets" will arise out of anti-Warren FLDS leaders and claiming "lo, I am the Lord's One True Prophet" and they'll gather followers. Some will leave Colorado City and join other Polygamist groups in Salt Lake Valley, Montana, or Mexico. A few families will join the LDS Church. A few will become Atheists because they will reason: "Since Warren Jeffs prophecies have failed....it follows that there is no God!" Some will join the "Second Ward" located in Centennial Park called "The Work of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints". About 20 miles away from Colorado City.