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Warning, long article ahead. But if you want the short summary:

The Future of Mopologetics (short version)

It's dead, Jim.

Really, It's dead, Jim.

The Future of Mopologetics (long version)

I think Stak's excellent thread gives an excellent overview of the short term prospects for DCP and crew. They will attempt to form an independent organization or internet presence to keep the flames of the glory days of FARMS (not NAMIRS) alive. There will be a lot of bluster and fanfare and a lot of hope will be invested in this effort. But I think the short term prospects for DCP's crew are only 1/4 of the future of Mopologetics. What's missing are the short term prospects for NAMIRS (not FARMS), along with the long term prospects for DCP's crew and the long term prospects for NAMIRS.

Short Term Prospects for NAMIRS

The short term prospects for NAMIRS is simple: The liberals have won. There has been a ongoing fight between more liberal Mormons who populate the bloggernacle vs. the more conservative Mormons who populate discussion boards and FARMS/NAMIRS for the heart and soul of Internet Mormons. DCP's firing is a clear indication that the former group has won, and my guess is they have won decisively. Someone sympathetic to their cause will be appointed to helm NAMIRS and edit the Mormon Studies Review (formerly known as FARMS Review of Books). The change in journal name clearly signals the change in direction. NAMIRS will become a clearinghouse for Mormon Studies and will very quickly jettison the old style FARMS Mopologetics. This group will be more politically correct and academically respectable and I predict their Mormon Studies Review will be seen as academically respectable within the next five years, at least among those who care about Mormon Studies, which is something the new NAMIRS crew is sure to wildly overestimate.

Long Term Prospects for DCP's Crew

After setting up their new online presence, DCP's crew will fade into irrelevance and the crew will rapidly lose interest in the project once they discover they no longer have much power nor a bully pulpit. The best case scenario for them is to become the conservative blog in the bloggernacle, maybe even become as popular as Times And Seasons, By Common Consent, and Feminist Mormon Housewives. A more likely scenario is that the big boys become bored with the whole endeavor and turn it over to the second and third tier Mopologists who will run it into the ground like they have MD&D.

Why will this whole scheme fail? For three main reasons.

First, this new crew will have no institutional LDS backing. The problem is that their natural constituency of conservative Internet Mormons and curious and/or concerned chapel Mormons looks for backing from the LDS church in deciding if they will trust something. Since the new crew won't have it, a lot of their constituency simply won't give them a look.

Second, the new crew will not be bankrolled to the extent they have been in the past. This economy is not a good time to go looking for fresh donations. Many donors will stick with NAMIRS, rather than follow DCP (not least because NAMIRS has nominal backing of the LDS church). There won't be any free office space, phone lines, or donuts in the faculty lounge. They will be operating on a shoestring budget, or maybe no budget, for a long time. Even the most dedicated idealist tends to lose interest in this sort of stuff when there isn't a paycheck big enough to make up for the time spent. Let's also remember that DCP's teaching and administrative duties will likely be increased in other areas since he will no longer be helming FARMS, meaning that any time spent on the new venture will be AFTER spending the same amount of time he now does on other job duties. In short, it's going to be a lot longer hours to make this venture work.

Third, the new crew will have lost the resources of FARMS/NAMIRS. Here I am mainly speaking about past publications. My guess is that a large percentage of interest in FARMS/NAMIRS is generated from interest in Hugh Nibley's past publications. They will no longer be associated with that. Plus, now it will become harder to refer people to past publications, since doing so will necessarily send them into enemy territory. The bottom line is that they will be starting from scratch to a large degree.

Long Term Prospects for NAMIRS

My guess is that the term "FARMS" will become a dirty word at NAMIRS, it dredges up the bad old days that the new Mormon Studies scholars will prefer to forget.

The main change for NAMIRS is I predict they will churn our academically respectable articles which only a small group of people care about. These articles will be tedious and uninteresting to the vast majority of rank and file LDS members. Also, in pursuit of academic respectability NAMIRS will not do any apologetics. Contributing further to the lack of desire to do apologetics will be the fact that the new NAMIRS crew will likely be mostly sympathetic to secular criticisms of LDS history and doctrine. Thus they won't see any need to respond to things they largely agree with. The new crew might be interested in responding to Evangelical critiques of LDS history and doctrine, but I think that genre is likely to die off in the long term. Simply put, secular criticisms are working great at getting people to leave the LDS church, so Evangelicals will likely switch their efforts to trying to keep the exiting ex-Mormons in the theist and Christian camp.

In sum, I think the original mission of FARMS, to defend the LDS church, will be dead within 5 or so years. At this point the LDS church will realize it has made a Faustian bargain. Sure, in the short term they will have hired a more respectable crew to get them through the "Mormon Moment". But the "Mormon Moment" will soon die and in the long term they will have lost the institutional means to defend the church. This will come at a critical time as knowledge of the seedy underbelly of LDS history and doctrine will only continue to grow. At that point the LDS church will have to make a choice among three really bad options: 1) Take apologetics in house at the church office building, but lose plausible deniability in the process. 2) Try and get NAMIRS to refocus on the original mission of FARMS, which won't work because NAMIRS will largely be sympathetic to the criticisms being made. Or 3) Try and reconstitute a sequel to FARMS, apart from NAMIRS. This will also be hard because the old crew will have moved on, died, retired, or no longer have the fighting spirit left (everyone gets old eventually).

But the bottom line is that Mopologetics, and every other form of LDS Apologetics will be on life support or dead in the long term.

ETA: Added links I forgot to put in original version.

ETA #2: I have added an additional short term prediction below: viewtopic.php?p=601839#p601839

That is an interesting scenario, Ari. We'll see how things actually pan out. You may be right, but I am not ready to write the final chapter on NAMIRS, the Review, or Dr. P just yet. These guys are highly intelligent and resourceful. They have an opportunity perhaps to pull victory from the jaws of defeat here, at least a victory of some kind. I think you are right that institutional backing is important, and that Dr. P and others have benefited from that association. They also have not completely lost it, even if the current developments stick.

Also, FARMS was a presence long before they joined BYU. Why do you suppose they can't raise the profile of FAIR, or found a new institution? As far as donor support for that kind of effort, I think you are mistaken in overemphasizing the principle of "backing the winning horse," when FARMS achieved what it did through the sheer conviction of those who wanted to see that kind of boxer in Mormonism's corner. If the Koch brothers have taught me anything, it is that ideologically motivated wealthy people can make a huge difference by backing the philosophies they agree with. I would never say, "well, this setback will spell the end of any serious contributions to slampologetics." No. It spells the end of such donations to the Maxwell Institute. I guarantee you that wealthy Mormons would back Daniel to hold the fire to anti-Mormons and liberal Mormons in any organization he should choose to do that.

The kind of rich guy who calls Mike Quinn a "nothing person" is happy to pay a PhD to say it in fancier ways.

Kishkumen wrote:Why do you suppose they can't raise the profile of FAIR

I think FAIR is on a downward trajectory. The past two FAIR conferences have not gone well. But I also think that FAIR has been parasitic on FARMS for its existence. Now that the host has been killed, FAIR will have a new (and more difficult) dynamic.

Kishkumen wrote:or found a new institution?

They can, but they will be starting from ground zero. The problem is that these guys aren't spring chickens anymore, I wonder if they have the time or energy to pull this off. I guess a supremely generous benefactor could remedy this by allowing DCP to make it a full time career. But that's a lot of money. Even with the deep pockets of FARMS and the institutional backing from BYU and the LDS church, DCP still had to teach Arabic classes.

But I also wonder how much the LDS church will countenance an independent apologetic organization. As you point out FARMS used to be independent. They were brought into the BYU fold for specific reasons, reasons which are probably still in play. Thus a new apologetic organization might be quickly rolled into BYU or killed via backdoor means (perhaps in drying up donations?). I don't think it's any secret that the LDS church really isn't comfortable with lone gun men, no matter how loyal they seem to be.

Aristotle Smith wrote:I think FAIR is on a downward trajectory. The past two FAIR conferences have not gone well. But I also think that FAIR has been parasitic on FARMS for its existence. Now that the host has been killed, FAIR will have a new (and more difficult) dynamic.

Well, their decision to back Schryver was a nightmare, that's for sure, but there is nothing to say they can't shape up. After all, Daniel Peterson and Kevin Barney are on the board of FAIR, so it is not like they aren't already there in a form, and it is not like they lack personnel with a reasonable degree of respectability and sanity. I very much respect Kevin Barney.

Aristotle Smith wrote:They can, but they will be starting from ground zero. The problem is that these guys aren't spring chickens anymore, I wonder if they have the time or energy to pull this off. I guess a supremely generous benefactor could remedy this by allowing DCP to make it a full time career. But that's a lot of money. Even with the deep pockets of FARMS and the institutional backing from BYU and the LDS church, DCP still had to teach Arabic classes.

But I also wonder how much the LDS church will countenance an independent apologetic organization. As you point out FARMS used to be independent. They were brought into the BYU fold for specific reasons, reasons which are probably still in play. Thus a new apologetic organization might be quickly rolled into BYU or killed via backdoor means (perhaps in drying up donations?). I don't think it's any secret that the LDS church really isn't comfortable with lone gun men, no matter how loyal they seem to be.

These are good questions, but I would counter with a couple of points. 1) It seems to me that there is a split on the issue of apologetics within the Twelve. Those who support the effort can run interference in order to give the new foundation some breathing room. 2) If wealthy Mormons feel like they are in tune with these apostles, what would prevent them from committing real money to such an effort? I think they would be highly motivated to seek the respectability for their faith that comes from PhDs from major universities defending Mormonism.

It would be important that these guys actually have day jobs elsewhere in the academy, so your point about age and energy is the most compelling one.

Insightful analysis, you can tell it is a boisterous and productive summer term here at the Cassius main campus. Thankfully, senior fellows such as emeritus chair of B.H. Roberts Mopologetic Studies Doctor Scratch gave up his summer in the Mediterranean to offer guidance and over see student activities, and of course the most Holy Reverend Kishkumen is deep in everyone’s counsels, giving spiritual encouragement and offering kind warnings against jumping to conclusions before all evidence is in.

It is too bad Dean Robbers has the Cassius rowing team at Oxbridge this week, preparing to cross the English Channel in record time.

MrStakhanovite wrote:It is too bad Dean Robbers has the Cassius rowing team at Oxbridge this week, preparing to cross the English Channel in record time.

Amen, Professor Stak.

Re: Kevin Barney.

He's been something of a wild card who has been able to navigate both camps. He has published in FROB, he is associated with FAIR, but he also is a regular at By Common Consent and Sunstone.

My guess is he will be on extremely good terms with the new crew at NAMIRS who will be more than happy to publish him. I think that is where he will feel most at home, he seems more comfortable with Sunstone than with FAIR. Since Barney is a class act and all around good guy, I doubt he will make any overt moves to join one camp or another, but I think his natural home is with the new NAMIRS and the more liberal wing of online Mormonism.

Aristotle Smith wrote:My guess is he will be on extremely good terms with the new crew at NAMIRS who will be more than happy to publish him. I think that is where he will feel most at home, he seems more comfortable with Sunstone than with FAIR. Since Barney is a class act and all around good guy, I doubt he will make any overt moves to join one camp or another, but I think his natural home is with the new NAMIRS and the more liberal wing of online Mormonism.

Well, he seems to keep his own counsel, so I can't say. All I know is that I quite respect him based on what I know of him and have read in his writing. And, he is on the board at FAIR, so clearly it is not just some kind of worthless joke organization. They would, however, really have to raise the bar in order to be more effective and respectable on the whole.

The short term prospects for NAMIRS is simple: The liberals have won. There has been a ongoing fight between more liberal Mormons who populate the bloggernacle vs. the more conservative Mormons who populate discussion boards and FARMS/NAMIRS for the heart and soul of Internet Mormons. DCP's firing is a clear indication that the former group has won, and my guess is they have won decisively. Someone sympathetic to their cause will be appointed to helm NAMIRS and edit the Mormon Studies Review (formerly known as FARMS Review of Books). The change in journal name clearly signals the change in direction. NAMIRS will become a clearinghouse for Mormon Studies and will very quickly jettison the old style FARMS Mopologetics. This group will be more politically correct and academically respectable and I predict their Mormon Studies Review will be seen as academically respectable within the next five years, at least among those who care about Mormon Studies, which is something the new NAMIRS crew is sure to wildly overestimate.

In other words, the organization will be relegated to a smaller, even more fringe-like and less relevant discussion group; like Sunstone and Dialogue.

bcspace wrote:In other words, the organization will be relegated to a smaller, even more fringe-like and less relevant discussion group; like Sunstone and Dialogue.

That is a legitimate concern. And, I think the abandonment of all apologetics would lead to this.