viewtopic.php?p=608726#p608726
I am responding to kevin's sims comments here:
viewtopic.php?p=611531#p611531
The bottom line is that I have most definitely not had it "demonstrated on this thread that plural husbandry is in" my future.
My response:
This site shows the current world infant mortality rate.
http://chartsbin.com/view/1353
Hover over the countries and you’ll see that male infant deaths far exceed female infant deaths with the exception of two countries: China and India. When I researched this in 2006, the average was 1.3 male to 1.0 female deaths.
It is true that more infant females than males die in China and India. One estimate in the 1990’s was that a million women were missing.
http://www.csbsju.edu/Documents/Politic ... -30-04.pdf
In order to offset this real issue, when I estimated the surplus of infant males in the CK, I used a very conservative approach. I completely ignored the surplus that would have occurred prior to 1 A.D., and only focused on 1 A.D. onwards. I think this safely provides a cushion to compensate for the “China effect.”
http://www3.telus.net/trbrooks/totalpopulation.htm
This site gives the estimated number of births since 1 A.D. at 105,318,577,900. 8% of that is 8,425,486,232. Again, using approximately the 1.3 ratio, that means that approximately 56% of those deaths were male to 44% female. 56% of 105,318,577,900 is 471,827,229. 44% is 370,721,394. The difference between those two numbers is 101,105,835 excess males in the CK.
Remember, this has the built-in cushion of completely ignoring the number of infant deaths prior to 1 A.D. I think this is a conservative estimate, but even if the estimates are a little off, you can still get an idea of the vast numbers we’re talking about. There is no way the missing females from China and India can compensate for those numbers, much less offset the imbalance to result in female excess in the CK.
In writing this, I don’t have much expectation that you’ll accept anything I’ve offered. But I’m hoping maybe it makes you think about this issue in a slightly different way. I think there is no way LDS men can even begin to understand what is being asked of LDS females unless they open their minds to the possibility of the same thing being asked of them.
(edit on: Another reason this is a very conservative estimate is that the infant mortality rate would have been much higher in antiquity, as the numbers of births on the linked chart show. I believe this provides another cushion to compensate for the China effect.)