DiscussMormonism.com

From LDS.org

Stakes
2002 – 2,602
2012 – 2,946 (+13.2%)

Missions
2002 – 335
2012 – 340 (+1.49%)

Wards and Branches
2002 – 26,143
2012 – 28,784 (+10.1%)

Total Church Membership
2002 – 11,721,548
2012 – 14,441,346 (+23.2%)

Increase in Children of Record
2002 – 81,132
2012 – 119,917 (+47.8%)

Converts Baptized
2002 – 283,138
2012 – 281,312 (-.64%)

Number of Full-Time Missionaries
2002 – 61,638
2012 – 55,410 (-10.1%)

LDS growth is clearly somewhere between a low of -10.1% (missionaries) and a high of +47.8% (children of record), but what is it? We all know the problems with the gross membership number, and number of missionaries is difficult to chart because the male/female ratio may change over time, it only represents a slice of the population, etc. Also, the definition of "children of record" has changed during the period of time in question, and is subject to changing birthrates.

I argue that it's wards and branches. Yes, the size of a ward has changed in the past, but there have been no structural changes during the period in question. Also, while it's true that wards and branches can gradually become hollowed out from inactivity or neighborhood changes, the church does combine or split wards on a regular basis when the population shrinks or grows too large. I think the unit growth is fairly consistent. My vote for actual LDS church growth worldwide was 10.1% over the course of the last decade.

Now look at the numbers for the previous ten year periods of time, keeping in mind that wards shrank in size dramatically during the reorganizations of the early 80s. Clearly, by the 90s, church membership was slowing dramatically, until it ground to a halt in the 2000s.

1972 - 4,342
1982 - 8,888 (+105%)
1992 - 20,081 (+126%)
2002 – 26,143 (+30.2%)
2012 – 28,784 (+10.1%)

A Pew survey frequently quoted on this board has shown that the percentage of the US population who identify themselves as "LDS/Mormon" when asked for religious affiliation has effectively remained constant for most of the last decade. (Asking people to say what they think is their religion is of much greater factual value than using any figures provided by the CoJCoLDS).

That means that loss of member loyalty is enough to offset the effect of both large LDS family sizes and the intensive missionary effort in the States.

Doesn't look good for the church.

What is up with the increase in children of record?

Lucretia MacEvil wrote:What is up with the increase in children of record?

For the record, my daughter is a child of record, but we no longer attend. There are at least 3 people counted by the church as members when they report their numbers (myself, my wife, and my daughter) who, for all practical purposes, are no longer members.

Lucretia MacEvil wrote:What is up with the increase in children of record?

I believe they used to only count kids when they got baptized, but since they count unbaptized kids in the total number anyway, they started boasting about their numbers from birth.