Chap wrote:KevinSim wrote:
I'm sure some people who have left the Church are like that, but I'm also sure that a lot are like my daughter who has gone inactive but who is gradually taking steps that might lead her back to activity.
In that case, we ought to be able to see the level of activity rising again. Are we?
A good test of Sethbag's statement can be drawn from the Pew survey a few years back, in which people in the US were asked to say that their religion was, if any. The number declaring themselves to be 'LDS/Mormon' was considerably less that the claims of membership made by the CoJCoLDS.
mackay11 wrote:
Ahem... It's usually the leadership who forget this is a global church... Not an American one.
I wouldn't be surprised if the "never stronger" claims are dependent on non-USA (and non-Europe) based growth in absolute numbers.
You may well be right.
mackay11 wrote: I find it very believable that numerically there have never been more members.
Can we just expand that a little?
I find it very believable that in terms of the numbers of names listed on the church's records for overseas countries there have never been more members.
I suspect that there is often a rather large discrepancy between the names on the list and the names you would get if you listed only those who thought of themselves as LDS members, and yet another discrepancy if you limited yourself further to listing the names of those who turned up to church with any regularity.
This site:
http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.fr/2011 ... ember.htmlgives the UK 'activity rate', that is, percentage of listed members who show at least minimal church involvement, as 18%. The estimated world rate outside the US and Canada is 22.5%.
If I was an apostle, yup, I might put all the weight I could on statistics from outside the US. But I think I would know that in terms of actual tithing income, I could forget about everywhere else but the US. Again using the UK as an example, the church's published accounts for that country show that it runs deeply in the red, and is kept afloat by subventions from Salt Lake City. Is it likely that Burundi does much better?