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Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:03 am
by _I have a question
Earlier today, I posted an item about the decision by increasing numbers of women in the West not to have children.
I feel that I can’t leave that topic without a further comment, partly bibliographical:
Demographic shrinkage of the West relative to, say, the Islamic world — and that shrinkage is dramatic — and of the more prosperous and highly educated portion within Western society relative to other classes, will have (is having) economic, political, and social effects far beyond its impact on the specific people who’re deciding not to have children.
I haven’t read systematically on this topic, but George Weigel’s 2006 The Cube and the Cathedral: Europe, America, and Politics without God, Mark Steyn’s 2008 America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It, and Mary Eberstadt’s 2014 How the West Really Lost God: A New Theory of Secularization certainly offer food for thought.
For a distinct discussion of how demographic trends can impact politics, create instability, lead to war, and so forth, see Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population, a 2005 book by my former BYU colleague (and sometimes fellow FairMormon speaker) Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer. They worry that a society in which hundreds of thousands of men simply cannot find wives or begin families is a society that may come to view them as dangerous, and to use them as cannon fodder.
But back to the West:
The replacement rate — that is, the fertility rate per woman required to maintain a stable population — is approximately 2.1 children.
As of 2014, the actual number was 2.01 in the United States, 1.90 in the United Kingdom, 1.61 in Russia, 1.59 in Canada, 1.48 in Spain, 1.43 in Germany, 1.42 in Italy, 1.41 in Greece, and 1.40 in Japan.
By contrast, the number was 2.86 for Pakistan, 2.87 for Egypt, 3.16 for Jordan, 3.92 for the Sudan, 4.09 for Yemen, 5.25 for Nigeria, 5.43 for Afghanistan, and 6.08 for Somalia.
Weak to nonexistent economies, coupled with burgeoning and young populations, are a recipe for instability and even, perhaps, for foreign adventurism. And very comfortable economies that pamper a dwindling population might well offer an irresistible temptation — or an infuriating target for envy and hatred.
Just a cheery thought for a Sabbath afternoon.
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/danpeterso ... -west.html
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 5:19 pm
by _mackay11
"...but... I'm going to give my opinion on it anyway..."
Having seen several blogs and re-shares of other articles from Peterson this seems to be his modus operandi.
His recent DN.com article on the narrative of Zosimus was similar fluff but just enough in there for a family member to get excited and send it as further evidence of the Book of Mormon's authenticity. It's utter nonsense, but Peterson probably knows his audience won't bother reading the original source so posts it anyway.
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:51 pm
by _palerobber
[Hudson and den Boer] worry that a society in which hundreds of thousands of men simply cannot find wives or begin families is a society that may come to view them as dangerous, and to use them as cannon fodder.
well, how'd that work out in Territorial Utah, Dan?
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:20 pm
by _Gadianton
They worry that a society [Asia] in which hundreds of thousands of men simply cannot find wives or begin families is a society that may come to view them as dangerous,
Isn't this the problem exactly opposite of what these reactionary thinkers are saying?
China's population explodes, they implement a one-child policy, and then everyone wants a boy and...?
They should be grateful that young people are creating sustainable population growth naturally.
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:09 am
by _I have a question
More razor-sharp in-depth analysis by Peterson....
I was mocked on at least one message board for pointing this out, but facts are facts: Not having children leads to shrinking populations....
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/danpeterso ... urope.html
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:31 pm
by _moksha
Gadianton wrote:
China's population explodes, they implement a one-child policy, and then everyone wants a boy and...?
Conservative Chinese Communists sign on to the LDS Supreme Court amicus brief to help stave off the inevitable....
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:51 pm
by _Arrakis
.....as a followup he'll make an insightful observation and declare the sun is hot.
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:51 am
by _Gadianton
I agree with him, but a shrinking population doesn't lead to men not being able to find wives. However, an explosive population in at least one important instance, China, has resulted in exactly that it seems.
Oh, another way to block men from having wives is to institute polygamy, and have all the wives for the senior leaders.
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:56 am
by _sock puppet
So he is capable of logic after all. It must be that he just guards his "beliefs" as an area off limits to the application of logic.
Re: Peterson worries you're not having enough babies....
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:56 am
by _I have a question
It is interesting that Peterson's point that a shrinking population needs to get cracking in the bedroom mirrors exactly the exhortations of his a Church leaders for members to get married as quickly as possible so they can have lots of babies.
Peterson is highlighting another signpost that Mormonisms population is shrinking.
Facts are facts, right Dan?