Convert numbers heading south after 2014...

[_I have a question]

Year-Missonaries-Converts
2007-52,686-279,218
2008-52,494-265,593
2009-51,736-280,106
2010-52,225-272,814
2011-55,401-281,312
2012-58,990-272,330
2013-83,035-282,945
2014-85,147-296,803
2015-74,079-257,402
2016-70,946-240,131
2017-67,049-233,729

The total number of convert baptisms seem to bear no relationship to the number of missionaries deployed. That’s like Sales bearing no relationship to the number of sales people employed.

And the number of converts take a nose dive from 2015 onwards.
- CES letter?
- Younger missionaries?
Anything else significant happen 2014/2015 that could negatively impact the number of converts?

[_Res Ipsa]

I don’t think one can evaluate the extent of correlation by eyeballing the figures — one has to do the proper statistical analysis. Baptisms appear to have increased during the surge and decreased afterward. But another significant variable is where the missionaries are deployed. Simon has presented evidence that certain markets for Mormonism are saturated. Increasing the sales force won’t do much in those markets.

We’d also have to look at changes in how the missionaries went about their work over time. Did they substitute online contact for personal contact, etc.

Finally, we’d need to look at the experience if other proselyting sects to figure out whether we’re looking at a general trend with respect to religion or something peculiar to Mormonism.

I don’t think we have nearly enough data to point to something like the CES letter as the cause.

[_Analytics]

I'd suggest that most converts are actually member referals rather than people who the missionaries find through their own efforts. When looked at that way, perhaps what's going on is the members are getting burned out on member-missionary work, their social networks are exhausting fresh prospects, and in general wanting to become like your Mormon neighbor is becoming less appealing. The size of the missionary force has little to do with it.

[_reflexzero]

If total converts dips below 200k in 2020 or so, that will probably ruffle a few feathers.

[_Meadowchik]

I'd suggest that most converts are actually member referals rather than people who the missionaries find through their own efforts. When looked at that way, perhaps what's going on is the members are getting burned out on member-missionary work, their social networks are exhausting fresh prospects, and in general wanting to become like your Mormon neighbor is becoming less appealing. The size of the missionary force has little to do with it.

That may depend upon the given area and the level of saturation that proselyting efforts has reached in the existing population.

[_DarkHelmet]

I agree we need more context to fully understand these numbers, but the church generated 280K converts with only 51K missionaries in 2009. In 2017 they only generated 233K converts with 67K missionaries. I'm not sure how you can spin those numbers in a way that doesn't cause the brethren to soil their depends a little bit.

[_I have a question]

I’m guessing that Convert Baptisms By Country is a scared statistic...

[_Craig Paxton]

I’m on my iPad so don’t have exact numbers, but converts in USA have dropped 50% from over 100,000 in USA to less than 50,000 since 2010. Converts in 1st world countries is stagnant or collapsing while converts in 3rd world countries is where all the growth is. Even convert numbers in generally convert consistent 2nd world a.k.a. Brazil , Mexico countries is nose diving. Were it not for Africa, the church would be in significant decline.

[_Themis]

I'd suggest that most converts are actually member referals rather than people who the missionaries find through their own efforts. When looked at that way, perhaps what's going on is the members are getting burned out on member-missionary work, their social networks are exhausting fresh prospects, and in general wanting to become like your Mormon neighbor is becoming less appealing. The size of the missionary force has little to do with it.

Don't know about today, but in my mission a large majority of converts came directly from the missionaries. This was in the US. Places like South America probably have even more converts coming directly from full time missionaries. I have seen the numbers over the decades and it looks like there is a relationship between the two.

[_Physics Guy]

The last couple of years could just have been a run of bad luck within the same pattern of fluctuations that seems to have been steady for many years before that. But the drop has been bigger than before, and has gone on for a year or so longer than before. I wouldn't want to bet the farm, but I'd bet a few beers that we actually are seeing a break in the long-term trend, now.

The surge in missionary numbers in 2013-14 must have been disappointing. They boosted missionaries by well over a third, and topped out at maybe a 10% rise in converts from what they'd been doing for years before. Now indeed there are fewer converts despite more missionaries. Perhaps something has really changed.