The numbers must be really really bad…

[IHAQ]

It has happened every year for decades. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has handed over membership data to Utah’s government.



This information, broken down by county, not only helps demographers create population estimates but also provides a window into the state’s shifting religious representation. It has brought to light Salt Lake County’s slow march to minority Latter-day Saint status, while other areas, like Utah County, hold firm.

But that window slammed shut in 2021.

The church didn’t send the data for the first time in at least 40 years and maybe much longer than that.

And the culprit is the coronavirus.

The pandemic’s effects have touched everything from what we can buy in stores to how our children are educated and where people attend church.

In an email to The Salt Lake Tribune, church spokesperson Sam Penrod said the Utah-based faith withheld the data for this past year.

“The reason for this is that due to church services being put on hold or reduced due to COVID, that the numbers do not accurately reflect membership numbers and trends,” he wrote, “including children born and blessed, or children whose baptisms were delayed because of COVID.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/lds-c ... ar-AARiE1e

[msnobody]

There is only one roll call that matters anyway.

[Dr Moore]

Such an interesting data point illustrating how the church cherry picks which data to share.

Remember when the missionary age changed and we had that absolutely artificial boost in active missionaries to over 100k during that overlap period?

Now any reasonable first order analysis concluded those numbers also did not “accurately reflect” the true membership or trends, but somehow that good news was trumpeted all over, and even had a divine marketing slogan attached (“the Lord is hastening His work”).

[dastardly stem]

How silly. If they reported it and it reflected way low, then in the coming year or two they'd see a steep incline again and get to trumpet the increase.

Just asterisk the year. We're all aware it was pandemic time. An easy explanation for the anomaly. They bring suspicion by offering an excuse. "well, we don't want to inaccurately reflect the reality". Pandemics are reality, bub.

[Philo Sofee]

Such an interesting data point illustrating how the church cherry picks which data to share.

Remember when the missionary age changed and we had that absolutely artificial boost in active missionaries to over 100k during that overlap period?

Now any reasonable first order analysis concluded those numbers also did not “accurately reflect” the true membership or trends, but somehow that good news was trumpeted all over, and even had a divine marketing slogan attached (“the Lord is hastening His work”).

Well, and then again, I mean, if history is any indicator, he is rather behind ya know. It's a good thing he's out there a husslin door to door now! I sure hope he's keeping his own mission rules and not taking two P-days instead of just the singular one allowed in order to get his laundry done. I'd hate to see him face the wrath of the Mission President for breaking the rules.

[Marcus]

Such an interesting data point illustrating how the church cherry picks which data to share.

Remember when the missionary age changed and we had that absolutely artificial boost in active missionaries to over 100k during that overlap period?

Now any reasonable first order analysis concluded those numbers also did not “accurately reflect” the true membership or trends, but somehow that good news was trumpeted all over, and even had a divine marketing slogan attached (“the Lord is hastening His work”).

And If I recall correctly, didn't Holland run with it, making a linear projection that the increase would continue for years? Do you think whoever gave him the data was just too afraid to point out to a prophet that it was an outlier, and was not expected to continue?

[malkie]

Such an interesting data point illustrating how the church cherry picks which data to share.

Remember when the missionary age changed and we had that absolutely artificial boost in active missionaries to over 100k during that overlap period?

Now any reasonable first order analysis concluded those numbers also did not “accurately reflect” the true membership or trends, but somehow that good news was trumpeted all over, and even had a divine marketing slogan attached (“the Lord is hastening His work”).

And If I recall correctly, didn't Holland run with it, making a linear projection that the increase would continue for years? Do you think whoever gave him the data was just too afraid to point out to a prophet that it was an outlier, and was not expected to continue?

I would expect that Holland should have been able to figure out for himself that a linear projection would not be appropriate.

Also, surely when the brethren discussed the surge, someone must have pointed out the obvious, that even if you dropped the age every year, and accepted primary kids as FT missionaries, eventually you would run out of fetuses.

Would that be the limit, though? Just as it has been suggested that missionaries who die while serving are needed for a greater calling on the other side of the veil, I suppose you could reach back into the pre-existence and call premortal spirits - as many as you need - to preserve the straight line.

[Res Ipsa]

How silly. If they reported it and it reflected way low, then in the coming year or two they'd see a steep incline again and get to trumpet the increase.

Just asterisk the year. We're all aware it was pandemic time. An easy explanation for the anomaly. They bring suspicion by offering an excuse. "well, we don't want to inaccurately reflect the reality". Pandemics are reality, bub.

That was my first reaction. The appropriate treatment is not to hide the number. Just put an asterisk on it.

[Dr. Sunstoned]

They can't help it. Obfuscating, misdirecting, and lying is baked into TSCC's DNA. Lying for the lord is a storied tradition that has been passed down for 190 years.

[IHAQ]

They can't help it. Obfuscating, misdirecting, and lying is baked into TSCC's DNA. Lying for the lord is a storied tradition that has been passed down for 190 years.

The Church, the Apostles, never take the opportunity to be proactively honest.