I suppose you are right in suggesting probability often is not an easy thing to decide on, for any given notion. Electrons are highly probable. Dark matter has it's level of probability. COmpared to what? And how do we decide? Not really my point, though. As long as people are willing to decide we can only live by levels of probability, then I figure the point's been made.Physics Guy wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 6:24 pmLots of people say they believe in God, but not so many assert it as a proven fact. Most religions I know acknowledge explicitly that their tenets are unproven. To speak of the religion I know best, mainstream Christians have recited their creeds in unison each week for centuries. The statement is, "I believe." Nobody would say that if the claim were really, "I know."
We may safely assume that almost anything may be only imaginary. Electrons might be fictitious. It's unlikely but possible, in brain-in-jar kind of scenarios if nothing else, so the assumption that it could be true is a safe one.
Whiskey costs money. If you want to advance a positive statement with more than "could-be" probability, you need definite positive evidence for it.
Is it really more likely that an imagined character that is found nowhere is purely imaginary? It depends on how narrowly the imagined character is defined, compared to the range of possibilities. Bigfoot is one example of an imagined entity; here's another.
Dark matter is unlikely to be any particular model that I can construct, but quite likely to be some kind of real something, which will turn out to have the minimal properties that I expect any kind of dark matter to have, even though we have no evidence (yet) for any particular form of dark matter.
In the same kind of way, the chance that some kind of ultimate being responsible for reality might exist is not so obviously low. Most people who believe in God don't claim to know exactly what God is like. They're believing in a wide class of possible Gods. I really find it unreasonable to say that the odds of that are a priori much less than 50/50.
But I don't see how those phenomena relate to the question of God. I would say, or agree, one of the problems with God is it's lacking definition. It is an everything and nothing all at the same time. Every conceivable measure one might put to it, is ruined before it starts because we have nothing but a contradicted mix of descriptions for what we're even looking for. "LEt's measure the effects of prayer", we might say. "Oh...God has deemed prayer only works sometimes and we can't possibly know what a working prayer means or why God might listen or help. And anyone who doesn't prayer could have every single same effect as anyone who does? So why are we proposing a god, a need to believe in him, and think there's good reason to think he's there?"
Is God lacking form, material, consciousness, temporality, emotion? Is it anything at all? If not, then what are we even proposing with the existence of God? At least with dark matter we have some theory of what to look for, and a reason to think it exists. But God? I mean he's both existing and non existing at all. He's both the source of good and the source of bad. He's hidden completely but knowable, by chance, to some few. He uses magic to heal on rare occasions but refuses to even listen most of the time. He's the only way we could possibly know he exists and he refuses to give us any observable, repeatable, explainable idea to find him. People imagine and poof! for them he's there. The rest of us imagine the same, and its simply imagination. He's not there. We're imagining.
Some might say all of the above is a description of his virtues. I can't see a reason at all to think it's anything at all. We can propose nothing as being responsible for reality just as much as we can propose a God, who if ever we try and define it seems to be not much more than nothing anyway. I get people think we need something supernatural in order to explain anything about nature, ultimately. I'm like so? That doesn't mean God, nor does it mean we have any clue what is supernatural. And if it uncovers god somehow, all we're uncovering is a nothing, or an invisible dragon, calling that god and that as is good as if its there as not there. I can't imagine how that falls into the category of 50/50 since there are an infinite number of things that could be explained the bottom half the the 50, god only being one of them.