Miracles and The 100 Prisoners Problem

[doubtingthomas]

There are 100 numbered prisoners waiting outside and 100 numbered boxes in a room. The boxes in the room are all in numerical order and have a label. All the boxes have another number (1-100) inside, but the number inside a box doesn't necessarily match the number that is printed on the label, the numbers inside the boxes are randomly distributed. No number repeats.

The prisoners must enter the room one at a time. When a prisoner is inside, he has to open the boxes to look for his own number.


The Rules
Only one prisoner can be inside the room at a time.
Each prisoner is allowed to open 50 boxes.
Before leaving the room, the prisoners have to close the boxes, exactly like they were.
A prisoner is not allowed to communicate with others after he enters and leaves the room.

All 100 prisoners have to find their assigned number. The probability of success is (1/2)^100.

What strategy can the prisoners use prisoners improve their probability of success to 0.31?

Answer: Prayer. If the prisoners are successful, it means God helped them.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... 45061-0_28

[huckelberry]

DoubtingThomas,
How much are you paying god to participate in this study? If you are paying somebody why do you think the funds are reaching God instead of being pocketed by the middleman?

[drumdude]

I think there are two definitions of miracle that are commonly confused. One is something unlikely happening. Like flipping a coin heads up 100 times in a row.

The other miracle is something impossible happening. Like a decapitated human regrowing a head.

The first type of miracle is not very convincing. On a long enough time scale with enough attempts, statistics tell us the event is more and more likely to happen. Statistics also tells us that improbable events can happen well before they are likely to occur, just as likely events can NOT happen for longer than we would expect. The bell curve has non-zero tails at either end.

The second type of miracle is much more convincing. If it could be demonstrated that Jesus Christ's brain had undergone physical decomposition, and 3 days later reconstructed itself, it would be proof in my mind that Christ was divine because he violated the universal physical law of entropy. You would need a computer larger than the Universe itself to model the decomposition process of his brain well enough to be able to 100% reverse it. The information loss and reconstruction would be a miracle.

[Rivendale]

If it could be demonstrated that Jesus Christ's brain had undergone physical decomposition, and 3 days later reconstructed itself, it would be proof in my mind that Christ was divine because he violated the universal physical law of entropy. You would need a computer larger than the Universe itself to model the decomposition process of his brain well enough to be able to 100% reverse it. The information loss and reconstruction would be a miracle.

Or God just used the same technology that lizards use for tail regeneration with a twist.

[drumdude]

If it could be demonstrated that Jesus Christ's brain had undergone physical decomposition, and 3 days later reconstructed itself, it would be proof in my mind that Christ was divine because he violated the universal physical law of entropy. You would need a computer larger than the Universe itself to model the decomposition process of his brain well enough to be able to 100% reverse it. The information loss and reconstruction would be a miracle.

Or God just used the same technology that lizards use for tail regeneration with a twist.

Indeed!

[Dr Moore]

I don’t understand the question - how can they increase the odds of success to a precise probability of 31%?

This would be impossible to measure if you only run the experiment once. So, the answer is inconsistent with the question, as posed. The answer, pray, by definition assumes no statistical post hoc assessment is feasible.

[doubtingthomas]

I don’t understand the question - how can they increase the odds of success to a precise probability of 31%?

It's 31.18%

This would be impossible to measure if you only run the experiment once.

The probability of success is (1/2)^100 when the prisoners don't have a strategy. There is a strategy to increase the probability to 0.31. You can look up the "100 Prisoners Problem". Increasing the probability from 0.5^100 to 0.31 looks miraculous.

The answer, pray, by definition assumes no statistical post hoc assessment is feasible.

I'm being sarcastic with the answer because many people think prayer is the answer to all problems.

[doubtingthomas]

I think there are two definitions of miracle that are commonly confused. One is something unlikely happening. Like flipping a coin heads up 100 times in a row.

Makes sense.

If you are paying somebody why do you think the funds are reaching God instead of being pocketed by the middleman?

No.

[malkie]

If it could be demonstrated that Jesus Christ's brain had undergone physical decomposition, and 3 days later reconstructed itself, it would be proof in my mind that Christ was divine because he violated the universal physical law of entropy. You would need a computer larger than the Universe itself to model the decomposition process of his brain well enough to be able to 100% reverse it. The information loss and reconstruction would be a miracle.

Or God just used the same technology that lizards use for tail regeneration with a twist.

Result:

[huckelberry]

I think there are two definitions of miracle that are commonly confused. One is something unlikely happening. Like flipping a coin heads up 100 times in a row.

Makes sense.

If you are paying somebody why do you think the funds are reaching God instead of being pocketed by the middleman?

No.

doubtingthomas
perhaps I could make my view simpler. If there is a God who hears prayers he or she will not participate in your experiment.

I may know different people than you but I cannot remember myself ever thinking prayer was the answer to all problems and was not aware that anybody I knew thought such a thing.

Best approach to problems is to pick up your own responsibility and get to it.