Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by DrW »

Will Schryver wrote: @imetatronink
The no longer irresistible force of the US and its Anglosphere/European vassals is now irreversibly committed to wrecking itself against the immovable object of Russia.
11:27 AM · Sep 19, 2022
The above is pure nonsense. The more realistic perspective described below is born of time living in the UK, in Ukraine on a WMD proliferation prevention assignment, a year as the CEO of a Russian-funded start-up in the US, time spent in Russia traveling between St. Petersburg and Moscow, managing various DoD projects at a National Lab, and now in a company with several retired senior military officers who keep up with current DoD thinking.

From this vantage point, it’s now clear that the Russian SMO into Ukraine can only end with Russian forces expelled from the country and rendered incapable of mounting any credible threat in the foreseeable future. Supported by the US, UK, and other NATO countries, Ukraine will eventually reclaim all of its territories as they existed from 1991 to before the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014. Russian forces in Ukraine will leave, surrender, or be destroyed.

NATO countries have no choice in the matter. Russia has violated every applicable treaty into which they have entered since WWII regarding Ukraine. Russia simply cannot be trusted when it comes to treaties (or much else) - now or in the foreseeable future. , Over the last few decades, the Russian governmental kleptocracy, aided by the Russian Orthodox Church, has destroyed the morale and will of the vast majority of its citizenry, especially those living outside of Moscow or St. Petersburg. In towns and villages outside these two cities, it seems to me that learned helplessness prevails.

The most important factor in this war is the motivation and commitment of the respective armed forces involved. Force training, equipment quality, quantity, and logistics capability are critical. Ukraine, with NATO's help, surpasses Russia on all counts. Finally, there is international opposition to Russia in the form of sanctions and strong political will.

The West has a once-in-a-century opportunity to defang Russia. Russian military capability can now be reduced to a point that ensures Russia cannot threaten Western Europe or the West in general for generations, assuming Russia survives as a nation at all. US and UK military planners recognize this opportunity and will do whatever it takes to provide Ukraine with the equipment and training needed to prevail.

When the next phase of training is complete, Ukraine will be provided with F-16 and F-15 aircraft. Some of the F-16s will be fitted with SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capability. SEAD is a critical function and one that the Russian Air Force has simply failed to accomplish. After six months of war, Russia has failed to establish air superiority in the battlespace.

With US/NATO AWACS patrolling just beyond the border and coordinating US-built aircraft piloted by well-trained and supremely motivated Ukrainians, Ukraine will achieve air superiority in the battle space in short order. Beyond Visual Range (BVR) engagement capabilities of air-to-air missile systems carried by F-15 and F-16 aircraft are unrivaled. With the NATO air assets, Russian combat aircraft can be targeted and downed before they know Ukrainian fighter jets are in the area.

With the help of US planners and intel, Ukraine military planners and politicians lured a substantial proportion of theater Russian forces into the Kherson area with the threat of a counteroffensive there to recapture that city. Ukraine then cut Russian supply lines, especially across the Dnieper river, leaving the recently incoming forces stranded with greatly diminished, if any, logistical support. Russian forces trapped in Kherson province will eventually desert and melt away back to Russia, surrender, or be killed.

In the meantime, Ukraine's forces have scored a significant counteroffensive win in the Kharkiv region. Surprised and poorly led regular Russian forces fled the area after simply abandoning armored and transport vehicles, including fully operational T-72 tanks with fuel and ammunition, as well as other heavy weapons and ammunition. The Russian tanks are now being used by Ukrainian forces to strengthen their new positions.

With the Eastern front partially collapsed, some 30,000 troops and their equipment trapped north of the Dnieper river in Kherson, province, and with Putin reduced to opening prisons in Russia to obtain more cannon fodder, it’s pretty clear that Russia is well on the road to defeat. In the last phases of the mainland battle, additional HIMARS and longer-range precision-guided rocket-propelled munitions will be able to reach well into Crimea, to the Russian border, and beyond if needed. Russian logistics capability and troop morale will continue to be degraded by the use of better and more accurate stand-off weapons by Ukraine. Russian forces will eventually surrender, leave the Ukrainian mainland, or be destroyed. Short of a nuclear attack (which would be tantamount to national suicide), there is nothing Putin can do at this point to alter the outcome.

Abundant evidence of horrendous war crimes committed by Russian forces against Ukrainian civilians will continue to turn world opinion against Putin’s war and in favor of re-establishing the original borders of Ukraine, including Crimea. Diplomacy in this conflict is in the form of superior weapons and better-trained, motivated, and supported troops imposing their will on Russia.

Indian Prime Minister and Russian ally Narendra Modi recently warned Putin, ‘Now is not the time for war.’ Russia's best chance now is to heed this warning and act accordingly.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Everybody Wang Chung »

Thank you for that great analysis DrW. As if on cue, William Schryver just posted this very bizarre, alternative reality tweet:
Will Schryver
@imetatronink

Checkmate

"The defeat of NATO’s proxy army, weapons, and leadership in Ukraine at the hands of the Russians will be viewed all around the world as an unprecedented defeat of American hegemony."
https://Twitter.com/imetatronink/status ... gr%5Etweet
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

DrW wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:38 pm
Will Schryver wrote: @imetatronink
The no longer irresistible force of the US and its Anglosphere/European vassals is now irreversibly committed to wrecking itself against the immovable object of Russia.
11:27 AM · Sep 19, 2022
The above is pure nonsense. The more realistic perspective described below is born of time living in the UK, in Ukraine on a WMD proliferation prevention assignment, a year as the CEO of a Russian-funded start-up in the US, time spent in Russia traveling between St. Petersburg and Moscow, managing various DoD projects at a National Lab, and now in a company with several retired senior military officers who keep up with current DoD thinking.

From this vantage point, it’s now clear that the Russian SMO into Ukraine can only end with Russian forces expelled from the country and rendered incapable of mounting any credible threat in the foreseeable future. Supported by the US, UK, and other NATO countries, Ukraine will eventually reclaim all of its territories as they existed from 1991 to before the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014. Russian forces in Ukraine will leave, surrender, or be destroyed.

NATO countries have no choice in the matter. Russia has violated every applicable treaty into which they have entered since WWII regarding Ukraine. Russia simply cannot be trusted when it comes to treaties (or much else) - now or in the foreseeable future. , Over the last few decades, the Russian governmental kleptocracy, aided by the Russian Orthodox Church, has destroyed the morale and will of the vast majority of its citizenry, especially those living outside of Moscow or St. Petersburg. In towns and villages outside these two cities, it seems to me that learned helplessness prevails.

The most important factor in this war is the motivation and commitment of the respective armed forces involved. Force training, equipment quality, quantity, and logistics capability are critical. Ukraine, with NATO's help, surpasses Russia on all counts. Finally, there is international opposition to Russia in the form of sanctions and strong political will.

The West has a once-in-a-century opportunity to defang Russia. Russian military capability can now be reduced to a point that ensures Russia cannot threaten Western Europe or the West in general for generations, assuming Russia survives as a nation at all. US and UK military planners recognize this opportunity and will do whatever it takes to provide Ukraine with the equipment and training needed to prevail.

When the next phase of training is complete, Ukraine will be provided with F-16 and F-15 aircraft. Some of the F-16s will be fitted with SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capability. SEAD is a critical function and one that the Russian Air Force has simply failed to accomplish. After six months of war, Russia has failed to establish air superiority in the battlespace.

With US/NATO AWACS patrolling just beyond the border and coordinating US-built aircraft piloted by well-trained and supremely motivated Ukrainians, Ukraine will achieve air superiority in the battle space in short order. Beyond Visual Range (BVR) engagement capabilities of air-to-air missile systems carried by F-15 and F-16 aircraft are unrivaled. With the NATO air assets, Russian combat aircraft can be targeted and downed before they know Ukrainian fighter jets are in the area.

With the help of US planners and intel, Ukraine military planners and politicians lured a substantial proportion of theater Russian forces into the Kherson area with the threat of a counteroffensive there to recapture that city. Ukraine then cut Russian supply lines, especially across the Dnieper river, leaving the recently incoming forces stranded with greatly diminished, if any, logistical support. Russian forces trapped in Kherson province will eventually desert and melt away back to Russia, surrender, or be killed.

In the meantime, Ukraine's forces have scored a significant counteroffensive win in the Kharkiv region. Surprised and poorly led regular Russian forces fled the area after simply abandoning armored and transport vehicles, including fully operational T-72 tanks with fuel and ammunition, as well as other heavy weapons and ammunition. The Russian tanks are now being used by Ukrainian forces to strengthen their new positions.

With the Eastern front partially collapsed, some 30,000 troops and their equipment trapped north of the Dnieper river in Kherson, province, and with Putin reduced to opening prisons in Russia to obtain more cannon fodder, it’s pretty clear that Russia is well on the road to defeat. In the last phases of the mainland battle, additional HIMARS and longer-range precision-guided rocket-propelled munitions will be able to reach well into Crimea, to the Russian border, and beyond if needed. Russian logistics capability and troop morale will continue to be degraded by the use of better and more accurate stand-off weapons by Ukraine. Russian forces will eventually surrender, leave the Ukrainian mainland, or be destroyed. Short of a nuclear attack (which would be tantamount to national suicide), there is nothing Putin can do at this point to alter the outcome.

Abundant evidence of horrendous war crimes committed by Russian forces against Ukrainian civilians will continue to turn world opinion against Putin’s war and in favor of re-establishing the original borders of Ukraine, including Crimea. Diplomacy in this conflict is in the form of superior weapons and better-trained, motivated, and supported troops imposing their will on Russia.

Indian Prime Minister and Russian ally Narendra Modi recently warned Putin, ‘Now is not the time for war.’ Russia's best chance now is to heed this warning and act accordingly.
One of the great posts, Dr. W. Excellent analysis, tightly written, and easily digestible. We’re lucky to have you here.

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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:30 pm
One of the great posts, Dr. W. Excellent analysis, tightly written, and easily digestible. We’re lucky to have you here.
I tend to agree with that evaluation.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Kishkumen »

Holy smokes, DrW, that is one of the finest posts I have ever read. Talk about justifying the existence of DM in spades! Really shows what an empty, blustering idiot Will is by stark comparison.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by dastardly stem »

DrW says:
Short of a nuclear attack (which would be tantamount to national suicide), there is nothing Putin can do at this point to alter the outcome.
I hope my own ignorance on this whole episode was what caused me worry when reading the said excellent post, upon arriving at this line. I don't really understand Putin or Russia's grander motivation, but one might imagine, at least from what some people are saying, a last ditch effort, or panicked move. National suicide seems scary. Defeating Russia and ending this sounds great, but proud powers don't go down easily, I imagine. If they are going down they may resort to burning it all while falling.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Everybody Wang Chung »

dastardly stem wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:55 pm
...but proud powers don't go down easily, I imagine. If they are going down they may resort to burning it all while falling.
Just like DCP (and the old guard) tried to do to the Maxwell Institute when they were kicked out.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by dastardly stem »

Everybody Wang Chung wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:38 pm
dastardly stem wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:55 pm
...but proud powers don't go down easily, I imagine. If they are going down they may resort to burning it all while falling.
Just like DCP (and the old guard) tried to do to the Maxwell Institute when they were kicked out.

Hahahahahaha. I love this got brought back to Mormonism so easily
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by DrW »

dastardly stem wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:55 pm
DrW says:
Short of a nuclear attack (which would be tantamount to national suicide), there is nothing Putin can do at this point to alter the outcome.
I hope my own ignorance on this whole episode was what caused me worry when reading the said excellent post, upon arriving at this line. I don't really understand Putin or Russia's grander motivation, but one might imagine, at least from what some people are saying, a last ditch effort, or panicked move. National suicide seems scary.
Threats by Putin and bellicose proclamations by Russian propagandists and media personalities regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine are of little concern to the West at this point. Such threats are made primarily for internal consumption and are in fact a sign of weakness. The truth is that Putin made a cataclysmic mistake in Ukraine and he and his nation will eventually suffer the consequences. The use of nuclear weapons, theater or intercontinental, would only make those consequences worse.

Putin is a tinhorn dictator with delusions of grandeur who fancies himself as a modern Peter the Great. He and Trump are two of a kind, both have acquired florid symptoms of narcissistic personality disorder. The two of them formed a mutual admiration society before Trump was elected, with Trump playing the role of Putin’s useful idiot. Like Trump, Putin is a coward at his core and unlikely to commit suicide for his “principles” which, like Trump's, are focused on himself and his well-being.

After Putin attacked Ukraine in February, and before Mar-a-Lago was searched for stolen classified documents in August, Russian propagandists and media openly referred to The Donald as "our Agent Trump”. They assured their audiences that, with Russia’s help, Trump would be re-elected in 2024 and everything would again be smooth sailing as it was before the 2020 US election was stolen by the anti-Russian Democrats.

Putin knows that the use of nuclear weapons, even low-yield tactical nukes, of which Russia has plenty, would mean a measured response in kind by NATO. While highly unlikely, if it did come to a tit-for-tat nuclear exchange, theater or global, Russia would lose badly, and Putin knows it.

While the US has slightly fewer nuclear warheads (depending on who you ask- about 4,200 in service vs about 5,500 in the Russian arsenal), US warheads are more widely deployed, including on submarines, and vastly more accurate than those in the Russian arsenal. I do not claim to know what NATO's nuclear strategy would be. What I do know is that the Russia that Putin mainly cares about; Moscow, St. Petersburg (where Putin was born and raised), and possibly Ekaterinburg, would certainly lose in any nuclear exchange – limited or extended.

The degradation of Russian military capability mentioned in the earlier post did not start on February 24, 2022, with the invasion of Ukraine. It had been going on for decades, as the kleptocratic form of governance has diverted revenue from the export of natural resources away from needed civilian and military infrastructure and into the pockets of high government officials, church leaders, oligarchs, and their relatives.

With their economy already severely degraded by decades of disastrous economic policies, and sanctions set in place in 2022 on top of those in 2014, the last thing Russia needs is for a nuclear exchange to further destroy what little they do have left.
DS wrote: Defeating Russia and ending this sounds great, but proud powers don't go down easily, I imagine. If they are going down they may resort to burning it all while falling.
My response to your concern here would be as follows: If Russians outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg have much pride, it is centered on past glories. Russians are told by the media and the church that they are a chosen people, privileged to live in the largest and greatest country on the planet.

The extent to which ordinary Russians, especially outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, live in an environment created over decades of state-controlled propaganda and isolation, and the effects that generation after generation of poverty has on the culture and psyche, is hard to fathom by citizens of the developed West. The reference to learned helplessness upthread applies.

Think about what life here would be like here if the only information available on TV were from Fox News. Think about the constant stream of misinformation and irrelevant nonsense on Fox network opinion shows intended to anger the audience and focus that anger on the imagined enemy - all to gain an audience and advertising revenue. Think about how warped and out of touch with reality the worldview of rabid Trump followers or true believers in Q-anon can be.

And while you are at it, think about the fact that Trump won 58% of the vote in the 2020 election in Mormon Utah and that the threat represented by Trump and his ilk - more dangerous to the US than Putin and Russia - still exists.
___________________________________

The number of nuclear warheads in the world has decreased significantly as a result of the SALT I, SALT II, and START treaties. At one time, there were tens of thousands of nuclear warheads in US and Russian arsenals. Now the numbers are approximately as stated above.

Western projections for global consequences of all-out nuclear war are roughly as follows:

- 20% of the population in the combatant countries are killed as a direct result of nuclear detonations.

- 25% of the global population dies in the intermediate term from indirect effects such as radiation poisoning, loss of critical infrastructure, including communications, inadequate food and clean water, etc.

- Beyond that are the long-term effects of the dust and debris injected into the atmosphere resulting in rapid cooling of the planet leading to crop failures and starvation. All countries, whether directly involved in the nuclear exchange or not will suffer the effects. Modeling shows that significant nuclear winter effects would result from the detonation of just 100 nuclear warheads.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by dastardly stem »

Thank you, DrW. That was a splendid response, very helpful.
The extent to which ordinary Russians, especially outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, live in an environment created over decades of state-controlled propaganda and isolation, and the effects that generation after generation of poverty has on the culture and psyche, is hard to fathom by citizens of the developed West. The reference to learned helplessness upthread applies.

Think about what life here would be like here if the only information available on TV were from Fox News. Think about the constant stream of misinformation and irrelevant nonsense on Fox network opinion shows intended to anger the audience and focus that anger on the imagined enemy - all to gain an audience and advertising revenue. Think about how warped and out of touch with reality the worldview of rabid Trump followers or true believers in Q-anon can be.

And while you are at it, think about the fact that Trump won 58% of the vote in the 2020 election in Mormon Utah and that the threat represented by Trump and his ilk - more dangerous to the US than Putin and Russia - still exists.
I mean...yep. I get that and it speaks loudly. Imagining Trump successfully overthrowing the 2020 election says plenty here.
After Putin attacked Ukraine in February, and before Mar-a-Lago was searched for stolen classified documents in August, Russian propagandists and media openly referred to The Donald as "our Agent Trump”. They assured their audiences that, with Russia’s help, Trump would be re-elected in 2024 and everything would again be smooth sailing as it was before the 2020 US election was stolen by the anti-Russian Democrats.
My god. Just what we need.
“Every one of us is, in the cosmic perspective, precious. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.”
― Carl Sagan, Cosmos
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