Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

The catch-all forum for general topics and debates. Minimal moderation. Rated PG to PG-13.
User avatar
Doctor CamNC4Me
God
Posts: 8952
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:04 am

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

I’m not totally sure what’s happening here, but if this is accurate and this is the kind of weaponry the Russians are equipping their conscripts with, well, it’s not going to go well:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ame=iossmf

This is a video upload of, ostensibly, Russian troops finding out their AKs are literally rusted and rotted. :shock:

eta: a Russian soldier explaining what he was told by Russian authorities, what his training was like, and how he was captured

https://Twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 0151746562

- Doc
Hugh Nibley claimed he bumped into Adolf Hitler, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill, Gertrude Stein, and the Grand Duke Vladimir Romanoff. Dishonesty is baked into Mormonism.
User avatar
DrW
Priest
Posts: 297
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:25 pm

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by DrW »

malkie wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:31 pm
In the 5 months between now and February, with rumours like this going around, how likely is it that an increasingly frustrated Putin will prepare and execute a devastating blow to Ukraine to blunt the F15/F16 "plan", or prevent it from happening at all?
It's hard to know what an increasingly frustrated Putin might do next. He has no good options now.
Please keep in mind:

- Russia is a failing kleptocracy that has perhaps the sixth largest economy (who knows?) and the sometimes support of the likes of North Korea and North Viet Nam. Russia has not developed in-country manufacturing capability for many critical components used in modern weapons and equipment. It has relied on revenue from the sale of natural resources to purchase these components from foreign manufacturers. Economic sanctions have left Russia with no access to certain critical weapon components.

Russia has already lost well over 30% of its original expeditionary force in Ukraine and has little or no capacity to re-supply lost weapons or ammunition beyond its present inventory.

- Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe after Russia and is pro-actively backed by at least six of the ten largest economies as well as NATO. With the current international economic sanctions and Turkey in NATO, Russia is not only economically isolated but geographically surrounded when it comes to fighting in Ukraine.

Unofficial statements by retired general officers in the West in response to Putin's latest threats have indicated that the US would immediately and completely destroy Russian military command centers if Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine. The Russian Black Sea Fleet could also be completely destroyed using conventional stand-off weapons, which would have the additional benefit of further opening shipping lanes in the region. (Such an operation could be readily accomplished within 72 hours using surface-, sea-, and air-launched conventional warhead cruise missile weapons already pre-positioned in NATO countries and in international waters.)

Any escalations or drastic steps that Russia might take against Ukraine at this point (directly attacking the national government in Kyiv or other civilian targets, using tactical nukes on the battlefield, deploying 300,000 more "cucumbers" with rusty rifles and no experienced NCOs) might prolong the war. International opinion and mathematics are now pretty much unanimous that it would not change the outcome. Russia's remaining stock of largely WWII-era infantry weapons is not sufficient in 2022. Neither is Stalin's WW-II tactic of simply throwing more troops at the enemy as Putin is planning with his 300,000 new cucumbers. Putin should remember that Russia prevailed in WW II because it was defending its homeland - the same as the Ukrainians are doing now and they will win as well.

Putin surely knows this. Perhaps he is hoping that if he can prolong the fight into the winter, cold and desperate Europeans might urge Ukraine to negotiate away land for peace so as to restore fossil fuel supplies. Putin should understand by now that the West has the overwhelming capability to see that Ukraine's original borders are restored and has no choice but to do so. If Putin continues the fight, the West will eventually render Russia incapable of invading other countries for a long time to come.

Putin's recent assurance that he was not bluffing in making his latest round of threats left the distinct impression with many that he probably was. Either way, threats are of little consequence now.

To paraphrase the St. Petersburg airport website hackers:

'Ukraine has already won the war. Now it's a matter of how badly Russia will lose'.
"Generally speaking, the errors in religion are dangerous; those in philosophy only ridiculous." (David Hume)
"Errors in science are learning opportunities and are corrected when better data become available." (DrW)
User avatar
dantana
2nd Counselor
Posts: 420
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:07 am
Location: Joined 7/18/11, so, apparently, position of senior ranking member.

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by dantana »

DrW wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:21 pm
malkie wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:31 pm
In the 5 months between now and February, with rumours like this going around, how likely is it that an increasingly frustrated Putin will prepare and execute a devastating blow to Ukraine to blunt the F15/F16 "plan", or prevent it from happening at all?
It's hard to know what an increasingly frustrated Putin might do next. He has no good options now.
Please keep in mind:

- Russia is a failing kleptocracy that has perhaps the sixth largest economy (who knows?) and the sometimes support of the likes of North Korea and North Viet Nam. Russia has not developed in-country manufacturing capability for many critical components used in modern weapons and equipment. It has relied on revenue from the sale of natural resources to purchase these components from foreign manufacturers. Economic sanctions have left Russia with no access to certain critical weapon components.

Russia has already lost well over 30% of its original expeditionary force in Ukraine and has little or no capacity to re-supply lost weapons or ammunition beyond its present inventory.

- Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe after Russia and is pro-actively backed by at least six of the ten largest economies as well as NATO. With the current international economic sanctions and Turkey in NATO, Russia is not only economically isolated but geographically surrounded when it comes to fighting in Ukraine.

Unofficial statements by retired general officers in the West in response to Putin's latest threats have indicated that the US would immediately and completely destroy Russian military command centers if Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine. The Russian Black Sea Fleet could also be completely destroyed using conventional stand-off weapons, which would have the additional benefit of further opening shipping lanes in the region. (Such an operation could be readily accomplished within 72 hours using surface-, sea-, and air-launched conventional warhead cruise missile weapons already pre-positioned in NATO countries and in international waters.)

Any escalations or drastic steps that Russia might take against Ukraine at this point (directly attacking the national government in Kyiv or other civilian targets, using tactical nukes on the battlefield, deploying 300,000 more "cucumbers" with rusty rifles and no experienced NCOs) might prolong the war. International opinion and mathematics are now pretty much unanimous that it would not change the outcome. Russia's remaining stock of largely WWII-era infantry weapons is not sufficient in 2022. Neither is Stalin's WW-II tactic of simply throwing more troops at the enemy as Putin is planning with his 300,000 new cucumbers. Putin should remember that Russia prevailed in WW II because it was defending its homeland - the same as the Ukrainians are doing now and they will win as well.

Putin surely knows this. Perhaps he is hoping that if he can prolong the fight into the winter, cold and desperate Europeans might urge Ukraine to negotiate away land for peace so as to restore fossil fuel supplies. Putin should understand by now that the West has the overwhelming capability to see that Ukraine's original borders are restored and has no choice but to do so. If Putin continues the fight, the West will eventually render Russia incapable of invading other countries for a long time to come.

Putin's recent assurance that he was not bluffing in making his latest round of threats left the distinct impression with many that he probably was. Either way, threats are of little consequence now.

To paraphrase the St. Petersburg airport website hackers:

'Ukraine has already won the war. Now it's a matter of how badly Russia will lose'.

Good stuff DrW! As usual.

What do you think about this - I posted it the other day up in SP. Binger rated it a WTF.

I don't see an out for Putin. I think he will burn the world down before conceding anything. I also don't see an out for Russia, except maybe if Putin is internally deposed and we get lucky with the next regime - to where they blame it all on Putin, sue for peace with their leverage being - we will pull out and cede back all of Ukraine if Ukraine agrees not to seek reparations or retribution for any war crimes and, I guess maybe agrees not to join NATO.

What's the alternative for Ukraine? Maybe the offer should be tendered - get out now, and all is forgiven. I mean, even if they somehow are able to win and kick the invaders off of every square inch. At what further cost to their country? And, how could reparations ever be enforced anyway without the defeat and occupation of Russia itself?
Nobody gets to be a cowboy forever. - Lee Marvin/Monte Walsh
User avatar
DrW
Priest
Posts: 297
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:25 pm

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by DrW »

dantana wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:28 pm
What do you think about this - I posted it the other day up in SP. Binger rated it a WTF.

I don't see an out for Putin. I think he will burn the world down before conceding anything. I also don't see an out for Russia, except maybe if Putin is internally deposed and we get lucky with the next regime - to where they blame it all on Putin, sue for peace with their leverage being - we will pull out and cede back all of Ukraine if Ukraine agrees not to seek reparations or retribution for any war crimes and, I guess maybe agrees not to join NATO.

What's the alternative for Ukraine? Maybe the offer should be tendered - get out now, and all is forgiven. I mean, even if they somehow are able to win and kick the invaders off of every square inch. At what further cost to their country? And, how could reparations ever be enforced anyway without the defeat and occupation of Russia itself?
Hey Dantana,

Looks as though you have been thinking a lot about this. Me too.

Events in the war in Ukraine seem to be moving faster now. In just the last ten days or so there have been nationwide protests in Russia in response to Putin's mobilization, UN confirmation of more war crimes having been committed by the Russians in Ukraine, thinly veiled threats by Putin regarding the use of nuclear weapons, hundreds of thousands of men leaving the country to avoid mobilization, and now the (at least temporary) closing of the Russian borders with Finland and Georgia.

So, provisional as it may be here is today's response to your post.

1. Agree it’s unlikely that Putin has any way out of this mess that includes him remaining alive for long.

2. 'Burning the world down' is not a credible threat and could not be as readily done or instigated by Russia as some might assume. More on that perhaps in a later post.

The main point on which our views seem to diverge is whether or not Ukraine has the capability to drive Russian forces from its territory. Without question, Ukraine, backed by NATO and especially the US and the UK, has more than sufficient military and diplomatic capability, and political will, to defeat the Russian Army in the theater of battle and to drive Russian forces out of all of Ukraine.

More importantly, it is the stated goal of a united and motivated Ukraine to do so. In other words, Ukraine and NATO will eventually prevail in the theater of battle and Russia will leave Ukraine. The US and Europe cannot and will not risk allowing Russia to end up with any Ukrainian territory whatsoever. Period.

That said, I believe that the following outcomes of the war with Ukraine would be necessary to have any chance of lasting peace in the region.
- Restoration of Ukraine’s borders to their original1991 status.
- Ukraine is admitted as a member of the EU.
- Ukraine is admitted as a member of NATO.
- A comprehensive non-aggression treaty is negotiated and signed between Ukraine and Russia.
- This time, it would have some teeth in the form of NATO military strength and commitment to stand behind Ukraine.
- There might also be associated trade and economic benefits for both Ukraine and Russia in the deal.

Going forward, please consider that the two major factors that allowed Germany to emerge from the Nazi era, and defeat in WW-II, to eventually become the largest economy in Europe were: (1) the US Marshal Plan for rebuilding war-torn Europe including the allied sectors of Germany (West Germany), and (2) the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials. One would not have been effective without the other.

As was the case with Nazi Germany invading Poland and then Russia, Putin and Russia have broken international law and civil norms with the vicious and unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The UN has affirmed that war crimes have been committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. An international tribunal will likely be formed to investigate, and trials held to prosecute those responsible.

If Russia continues to fight in Ukraine, the conflict will only become a more damaging proxy war with NATO. Together with the international economic sanctions, the conflict will eventually leave Russia without the military capability to invade other countries. If its military becames so degraded that Russia could not hold on to its current satellites, or credibly defend its own borders, then I believe that a western European style constitutional social democratic form of government could be established there. The means to accomplish this may well be war crime trials and some kind of European and US "Marshall" plan.

Russia’s utter failure to keep pace technologically and economically with western Europe, even though it has vastly more land and natural resources, is prima facie evidence that imperialism, feudalistic kleptocracy, or whatever they have now in Russia, does not work. If there is to be a lasting peace once the fighting stops, there will need to be significant changes in the Russian economy and governance.

This time, instead of handing out stock to citizens as was done for "monetary reform" in 1993, only to have it bought up for pennies on the dollar by Oligarchs, the restructuring could be done by Russian economists and businessmen trained in the west and overseen by whatever international treaty-formed entity is tasked with the recovery of Ukraine. Oligarchs should be brought to account and obliged to assist in this process as penance. One need only look at the formerly Russian-controlled Poland, the Baltic States, and East Germany, especially East Germany, to see the attraction for all concerned.

The main question here is whether the general population in Russia has had enough of Putinism. With Putin’s call for mobilization and the negative response to it in mind, I believe that a turning point will soon be reached. It can only get worse for Russia until there is a cessation of fighting.

If internal reforms cannot be made in the Russian economy and governance, possibly with help from Europe and the West, then Russia will likely become a vassal state to China.
"Generally speaking, the errors in religion are dangerous; those in philosophy only ridiculous." (David Hume)
"Errors in science are learning opportunities and are corrected when better data become available." (DrW)
User avatar
Doctor CamNC4Me
God
Posts: 8952
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:04 am

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

I think Ukraine was the test ground for Russia’s larger ambitions. Various commentators in articles and YouTube clips drive home Russia’s ongoing demographic, economic, and political collapse with some guessing Russia as we know it has ~20 years left (I have no idea how accurate that sort of thing is). I do think Russians were pushing the Ukrainians-are-our-brothers thing to help mitigate their low birth rates by adding ~45M people and a bread basket. I mean, if your birth rate is ~1.5 and you need 2.1 to maintain the current population you better figure out quick that alcoholism, an ignorant work force, and brain drain are going to accelerate your problems.

Phew. The nuke thing, though. We’re probably sitting at a 25% chance of Russians using battlefield nukes. They’ve already demonstrated a willingness to drop white phosphorous on population centers, not to mention destroying everything in sight with artillery and various other weapons systems. They even destroy UN heritage sights as if they were on a jihad against infidels, so their regard for non-Russians is hovering around zero. If Russians truly feel the clock is ticking for them, I don’t see why they wouldn’t since their psychology thus far has proven them to be sadistic, hypermyopic, and so thoroughly corrupted that lies are indistinguishable from truths. It doesn’t bode well for the world if Putin or his cronies stay power. It’s absolutely terrifying these people have nuclear weapons.

- Doc
Hugh Nibley claimed he bumped into Adolf Hitler, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill, Gertrude Stein, and the Grand Duke Vladimir Romanoff. Dishonesty is baked into Mormonism.
User avatar
Moksha
God
Posts: 5776
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:13 am
Location: Koloburbia

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Moksha »

DrW wrote:
Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:21 pm
Neither is Stalin's WW-II tactic of simply throwing more troops at the enemy as Putin is planning with his 300,000 new cucumbers.
I thought the mobilization was for former soldiers up to age 50, rather than new recruits. As an alternative, Putin could ask for Republican volunteers.
Cry Heaven and let loose the Penguins of Peace
huckelberry
God
Posts: 2555
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:48 pm

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by huckelberry »

I am going to show the limits of my knowledge and ask or note a question which has bothered me since this war started looming up on the horizon.

Considering events is wwII I cannot help but have some sense of marvel at the strength of the counter offensive Russia mounted after the Nazi attack stalled. I suspect the Germans had some sense of surprise as well. I find myself marveling at the shear numbers of men and tanks the Russians managed to martial after appearing to have almost collapsed. Certainly a big factor was US and allied assistance but still Russia made a lot of weapons and came up with a very large number of men to fight.

I cannot help but wonder how much Russia may again be able to reach back and produce large fighting resources. Of course in WWII their back was against the wall and the will to create that fighting force very strong.Russia had been investing heavily in industrialization in the decade, plus, before the war. Dr W comments point out that may be an important difference between then and now.

Before it started I imagined probably based entirely on WWII precedent that Russia would roll over Ukraine but instead there has been a lot of fizzle and dud in comparison. I hope that the prediction that that will continue is accurate.
User avatar
Doctor CamNC4Me
God
Posts: 8952
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:04 am

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

huckelberry wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:47 pm
Before it started I imagined probably based entirely on WWII precedent that Russia would roll over Ukraine but instead there has been a lot of fizzle and dud in comparison. I hope that the prediction that that will continue is accurate.
Kind of hard to find motivated troops when everyone knows it’s a sham war based on shameful pretexts. Last night’s line at the Russian/Georgian border:

Image

From what I’m reading Russia isn’t really using many ethnic Russians in this war as opposed to drawing heavily from ethnic minority regions and the occupied territories. I suppose facing a demographic collapse the powers that be decided to let those young men flee in the hopes they’ll come back and start a family?

- Doc
Last edited by Doctor CamNC4Me on Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hugh Nibley claimed he bumped into Adolf Hitler, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill, Gertrude Stein, and the Grand Duke Vladimir Romanoff. Dishonesty is baked into Mormonism.
User avatar
DrW
Priest
Posts: 297
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:25 pm

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by DrW »

huckelberry wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:47 pm
I find myself marveling at the shear numbers of men and tanks the Russians managed to martial after appearing to have almost collapsed. Certainly a big factor was US and allied assistance but still Russia made a lot of weapons and came up with a very large number of men to fight.
Huckelberry,

Regarding the current ability of Russia to produce a lot of weapons, please consider the following. At the beginning of hostilities, the U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that Russia had approximately 2,800 tanks in active service with another 10,000 or so in storage. As shown below, most of those in storage are older T-64s. They have been sitting outdoors for decades and have not been maintained (note the height of the number and trees growing between the tank rows). T-64s were first introduced in 1966 and were manufactured in Kharkiv in Ukraine.

Russia has been able to recommission a few of these antiques and send them to the front. T-64s make good targets for ordinance-dropping drones, Javelins, N-Laws, and other modern anti-tank weapons. Estimates as of the 21st of September, 2022, are that Russia has lost more than 1,800 tanks so far in Ukraine.

This is a substantial percentage of the estimated 2,800 main battle tanks that Russin had in service on February 24, 2022 (mainly T-72s with some T-80 and T- 90 models). In most battle scenarios, a 30% loss of men or materiel is significant. More than a 50% loss is considered to render the combat units ineffective. According to the Brits, Russia has lost more than 60% of their tanks, and more importantly, as many as 60% of their tank crews. The latter are generally more difficult to replace.

Today, Russia has little or no capability to manufacture new main battle tanks such as the T-80 or T-90, the latter of which is a T-72 hull and turret with an updated engine, and fire control. Even this kind of upgrade of the T-72 is a problem because critical components manufactured outside the country are no longer available (we are talking about components as basic as good-quality caged roller bearings).

One dirty little secret, among many, is that Putin was reticent to strengthen or maintain the military. He wanted to reduce the possibility of an eventual military takeover. Accordingly, he gave top leadership positions to mainly unqualified loyalists instead of competent commanders. Putin and Russia are now paying a high price indeed for this kind of corruption.

With regard to men that can fight, those with any brains, as Doc has shown above, are leaking out of the country at an estimated rate of some 50,000 per day.

Image

A wider perspective of Russian armor in storage.

Image

Not to belabor the point, but below is an image of a US tank storage facility (M1 Abrams and other combat vehicles) for comparison. Note that it is located in a dry climate, the vehicle rows are straight and well separated, there is no vegetation, no clutter or debris (e.g. gun tubes as above) on the ground, and the space between the rows has multiple tire and tread tracks indicating periodic movement of the vehicles as well as inspection and maintenance when needed.

Image
Last edited by DrW on Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:26 pm, edited 8 times in total.
"Generally speaking, the errors in religion are dangerous; those in philosophy only ridiculous." (David Hume)
"Errors in science are learning opportunities and are corrected when better data become available." (DrW)
User avatar
Doctor CamNC4Me
God
Posts: 8952
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:04 am

Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

Heartbreaking:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ame=iossmf

Young Russian soldier live-streaming from his fighting position. He has nothing - no supplies, no leadership, and apparently dudes behind him who’ll shoot him if he flees.

- Doc
Hugh Nibley claimed he bumped into Adolf Hitler, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill, Gertrude Stein, and the Grand Duke Vladimir Romanoff. Dishonesty is baked into Mormonism.
Post Reply