Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

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Bond
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Bond »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:21 am
Heartbreaking:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ame=iossmf

Young Russian soldier live-streaming from his fighting position. He has nothing - no supplies, no leadership, and apparently dudes behind him who’ll shoot him if he flees.

- Doc
How long until the conscripts get hungry and cold enough to turn around en masse and shoot the guys who are supposed to shoot them is the question.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

Bond wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:16 am
Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:21 am
Heartbreaking:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ame=iossmf

Young Russian soldier live-streaming from his fighting position. He has nothing - no supplies, no leadership, and apparently dudes behind him who’ll shoot him if he flees.

- Doc
How long until the conscripts get hungry and cold enough to turn around en masse and shoot the guys who are supposed to shoot them is the question.
I just looked at the 10-day weather forecast. It’s raining 9 out of the next 10 days, with nighttime lows dipping in the 40’s. So, probably ~7 days. Lol.

- Doc
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by DrW »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:53 pm
Phew. The nuke thing, though. We’re probably sitting at a 25% chance of Russians using battlefield nukes. They’ve already demonstrated a willingness to drop white phosphorous on population centers, not to mention destroying everything in sight with artillery and various other weapons systems. They even destroy UN heritage sights as if they were on a jihad against infidels, so their regard for non-Russians is hovering around zero.
- Doc
Hey Doc,

Here is another viewpoint concerning the probability of tactical nuclear weapons use by the Russians. As mentioned upthread, Putin has been warned publicly, and more specifically privately, against using nuclear weapons of any kind. Unlike his nonspecific threats to the West, the minimum consequences have been laid out to Putin in detail.

Putin, or at least Putin's generals (what's left of them), understand that the (unofficially stated) consequences of the use of nuclear weapons would be the near-immediate destruction of all Russian theater command and control centers, as well as probable destruction of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This would be carried out largely or exclusively by US forces, using conventional warhead cruise missiles launched from outside of Ukraine. This response would essentially slice the head off of the snake and leave Putin with no way to defend occupied territories in mainland Ukraine, or even Crimea.

Putin knows, or his generals should tell him, that if this happens the war in Ukraine is effectively over. The Russian army has no experienced NCO corps to speak of. It is essentially senior field-grade officers, regular army privates, and cucumbers. With the generals and colonels essentially removed from the fight, nothing happens. The ultimate consequence of using tactical nukes by Russia is that Ukraine will have won. The problem will be taking care of the ill-equipped, hungry, and cold Russian troops who surrender in the field.

One must consider here that US intel regarding the battle space is superior to that of Russia. The US knows what is where and has experienced war planners that are fully engaged and have done a great job so far in working with Ukrainian forces. There is no evidence that Russia even has dedicated strategists or competent war planners in the fight. It appears that Putin and his generals are making this up as they go along.

In fact, there are credible reports that Putin has personally made battlefield decisions over the heads of his generals and against their advice. This is what Hitler sometimes did in WW II and we know how that turned out. (When Churchill was presented with a plan to take out Hitler, Churchill declined, stating that Hitler was so bad as a battlefield strategist that he was more valuable to the allies alive than dead.)

Another factor that has not been mentioned is that China and India have both publicly advised Putin to end the war in Ukraine*. Other unofficial reports indicate that China and India have essentially given Putin a few months (two months?) to withdraw from Ukraine. If Russia has not done so by then, India and China have threatened to join the international community in economic sanctions against Russia - (game over). Use of tactical nukes would be a public opinion disaster and would certainly result in China and India joining international sanctions against Russia.

How would the Russians even use tactical nuclear weapons to any advantage? The ground forces of the two sides are too tightly positioned. As you probably remember, low-yield tactical nukes were originally developed by the US as a means to defend against a Warsaw Pact tank invasion of western Europe through the Fulda gap. They would have been effective in stopping a massed armor attack over open ground in sparsely populated areas. Nukes would only be useful as terror weapons in Ukraine. With war crime trials already on the horizon for Putin and many in the Russian military, the use of nukes would only make things far worse. I just can't see any reason to use them.

IMHO, the chances of nuclear weapon use by Putin are on the order of 5% and diminishing rapidly, especially with the growing nationwide protests against the mobilization and Putin's war in general. In any case, if Russia does not have the ground troops and equipment required to take and hold the territory cleared by battlefield nukes then what's the point?
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*https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinio ... 00378.html
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Chap »

DrW wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:55 am
In fact, there are credible reports that Putin has personally made battlefield decisions over the heads of his generals and against their advice. This is what Hitler sometimes did in WW II and we know how that turned out. (When Churchill was presented with a plan to take out Hitler, Churchill declined, stating that Hitler was so bad as a battlefield strategist that he was more valuable to the allies alive than dead.)
Indeed, as Churchill was reported as saying in a review of the war situation in November 1942, after the allied successes in North Africa:
The jaws of another Russian winter were closing on Hitler's armies, and 180 German divisions, many of them reduced to little more than brigades, together with a host of Italians, Rumanians, and Hungarians "dragged from their homes by a maniac's fantasy" must be prepared for "a second dose of what they got last year", with only the consolation that they had been led not by the German General Staff but "by Corporal Hitler himself".
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Morley »

DrW: I need to add my 'thank you' for your perspective in this dialogue. I've been following it with much appreciation.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Gadianton »

Thanks for the information Dr. W, great stuff. Wonder if I can bait Will into debating you here.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by honorentheos »

Hi DrW -
DrW wrote:
Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:55 am
Putin, or at least Putin's generals (what's left of them), understand that the (unofficially stated) consequences of the use of nuclear weapons would be the near-immediate destruction of all Russian theater command and control centers, as well as probable destruction of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This would be carried out largely or exclusively by US forces, using conventional warhead cruise missiles launched from outside of Ukraine.
Do you have a source for this? It would be a declaration of war against Russia and seems suspect.

ETA: I mean specifically if Putin orders the use of a so-called tactical nuke within the borders of Ukraine following Ukrainian military action inside of the borders of the soon to be annexed regions of Ukraine?

It's interesting to note that the appropriations bill that is hopefully going to be passed includes funding for dealing with the fallout from the use of a nuke in Ukraine. Trivia.
Last edited by honorentheos on Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Dr Moore »

DrW, both God and I hope you’re right :)
honorentheos
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by honorentheos »

The doomsday clock is seconds from midnight. The claims of overwhelming support for the eastern regions of Ukraine becoming part of Russia was a tick of that second hand. Other ticks include Russia annexing those regions in and declaring them to be part of sovereign Russia. The next tick after that is Ukraine (and the West) reaffirming we do not accept the results of the referendums and do not recognize the DPR and LPR as part of Russia. The next tick, Ukraine continuing with military operations in those regions, followed by Russia declaring that that to be an escalation of the war by Ukraine as having attacked Russia itself. The next huge tick after that is Putin following through on Russian nuclear doctrine that proclaims nuclear weapon use may be authorized in an otherwise conventional war to defend Russia against existential threats. If/when the so-called tactical nuke is deployed within Ukraine (there being no such thing as a "tactical" nuke, as the use of nuclear weapons is always a strategic decision...), the world will see how we all respond to the threat of potential nuclear escalation.

I think there is far more reason to be concerned. But who knows.
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Re: Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

Post by Chap »

honorentheos wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:27 am
If/when the so-called tactical nuke is deployed within Ukraine (there being no such thing as a "tactical" nuke, as the use of nuclear weapons is always a strategic decision...), the world will see how we all respond to the threat of potential nuclear escalation.
I don't think we need to wait to see: NATO is certain to have had plans for how, under a variety of circumstance, to respond to Russian use of smaller-scale nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use rather than city obliteration.

We have been told openly that Russia has been informed privately and in detail of what the response will be to Russian use of a smaller-scale nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Quite rightly, NATO has not stated publicly what this response will be. But rumours reported in some sources tell us that this response will be non-nuclear, and will involve massive use of missile weapons with conventional warheads to destroy large parts of Russia's military command structure, and to sink its Black Sea fleet.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
Mayan Elephant:
Not only have I denounced the Big Lie, I have denounced the Big lie big lie.
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