dantana wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:28 pm
What do you think about this - I posted it the other day up in SP. Binger rated it a WTF.
I don't see an out for Putin. I think he will burn the world down before conceding anything.
I also don't see an out for Russia, except maybe if Putin is internally deposed and we get lucky with the next regime - to where they blame it all on Putin, sue for peace with their leverage being - we will pull out and cede back all of Ukraine if Ukraine agrees not to seek reparations or retribution for any war crimes and, I guess maybe agrees not to join NATO.
What's the alternative for Ukraine? Maybe the offer should be tendered - get out now, and all is forgiven. I mean, even if they somehow are able to win and kick the invaders off of every square inch. At what further cost to their country? And, how could reparations ever be enforced anyway without the defeat and occupation of Russia itself?
Hey Dantana,
Looks as though you have been thinking a lot about this. Me too.
Events in the war in Ukraine seem to be moving faster now. In just the last ten days or so there have been nationwide protests in Russia in response to Putin's mobilization, UN confirmation of more war crimes having been committed by the Russians in Ukraine, thinly veiled threats by Putin regarding the use of nuclear weapons, hundreds of thousands of men leaving the country to avoid mobilization, and now the (at least temporary) closing of the Russian borders with Finland and Georgia.
So, provisional as it may be here is today's response to your post.
1. Agree it’s unlikely that Putin has any way out of this mess that includes him remaining alive for long.
2. 'Burning the world down' is not a credible threat and could not be as readily done or instigated by Russia as some might assume. More on that perhaps in a later post.
The main point on which our views seem to diverge is whether or not Ukraine has the capability to drive Russian forces from its territory. Without question, Ukraine, backed by NATO and especially the US and the UK, has more than sufficient military and diplomatic capability, and political will, to defeat the Russian Army in the theater of battle and to drive Russian forces out of all of Ukraine.
More importantly, it is the stated goal of a united and motivated Ukraine to do so. In other words, Ukraine and NATO will eventually prevail in the theater of battle and Russia will leave Ukraine. The US and Europe cannot and will not risk allowing Russia to end up with any Ukrainian territory whatsoever. Period.
That said, I believe that the following outcomes of the war with Ukraine would be necessary to have any chance of lasting peace in the region.
- Restoration of Ukraine’s borders to their original1991 status.
- Ukraine is admitted as a member of the EU.
- Ukraine is admitted as a member of NATO.
- A comprehensive non-aggression treaty is negotiated and signed between Ukraine and Russia.
- This time, it would have some teeth in the form of NATO military strength and commitment to stand behind Ukraine.
- There might also be associated trade and economic benefits for both Ukraine and Russia in the deal.
Going forward, please consider that the two major factors that allowed Germany to emerge from the Nazi era, and defeat in WW-II, to eventually become the largest economy in Europe were: (1) the US Marshal Plan for rebuilding war-torn Europe including the allied sectors of Germany (West Germany), and (2) the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials. One would not have been effective without the other.
As was the case with Nazi Germany invading Poland and then Russia, Putin and Russia have broken international law and civil norms with the vicious and unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The UN has affirmed that war crimes have been committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. An international tribunal will likely be formed to investigate, and trials held to prosecute those responsible.
If Russia continues to fight in Ukraine, the conflict will only become a more damaging proxy war with NATO. Together with the international economic sanctions, the conflict will eventually leave Russia without the military capability to invade other countries. If its military becames so degraded that Russia could not hold on to its current satellites, or credibly defend its own borders, then I believe that a western European style constitutional social democratic form of government could be established there. The means to accomplish this may well be war crime trials and some kind of European and US "Marshall" plan.
Russia’s utter failure to keep pace technologically and economically with western Europe, even though it has vastly more land and natural resources, is
prima facie evidence that imperialism, feudalistic kleptocracy, or whatever they have now in Russia, does not work. If there is to be a lasting peace once the fighting stops, there will need to be significant changes in the Russian economy and governance.
This time, instead of handing out stock to citizens as was done for "monetary reform" in 1993, only to have it bought up for pennies on the dollar by Oligarchs, the restructuring could be done by Russian economists and businessmen trained in the west and overseen by whatever international treaty-formed entity is tasked with the recovery of Ukraine. Oligarchs should be brought to account and obliged to assist in this process as penance. One need only look at the formerly Russian-controlled Poland, the Baltic States, and East Germany,
especially East Germany, to see the attraction for all concerned.
The main question here is whether the general population in Russia has had enough of Putinism. With Putin’s call for mobilization and the negative response to it in mind, I believe that a turning point will soon be reached. It can only get worse for Russia until there is a cessation of fighting.
If internal reforms cannot be made in the Russian economy and governance, possibly with help from Europe and the West, then Russia will likely become a vassal state to China.