Everybody Wang Chung wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:04 am
According to Wikipedia, about 40 million people live in or very close to Moscow. Over 20 million in the metropolitan area, and another 17 million residents in the immediate surrounding areas.
In fact it looks like about 70% of the Russian population is located in those two geographical areas on your map. That doesn't bode well for Russia. I would think that Putin realizes just how vulnerable Russia would be in the event of a nuclear war.
It gets a lot worse for Putin and Russia if a nuclear exchange were to escalate from tactical to strategic. (Apologies to honorentheos and General Mattis, but the distinction is important.) As described below, ICBM (strategic) missiles commonly have multiple independently targetable warheads, meaning that targets within an approximate 50-mile radius can be more thoroughly destroyed with a single missile.
Tactical: The premier US option for a limited tactical weapon exchange is the nuclear-capable AGM-86 air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) with the venerable W80 nuclear warhead. The ALCM launch platform is the B-52, which can carry up to 20 on a mission. The AGM-86 range from launch is listed as 1,700 miles. This means that one or more B-52s could loiter well outside of Russia and Ukraine
*, for as long as needed, sending in missiles with customized yield to specific targets upon request.
It is possible to adjust the yield of the W80-1 nuclear warhead from as little as 5 up to 150 kilotons (kt.). (Depending on who you ask, the yield of the Hiroshima bomb was somewhere between about 10 and 20 kt.) These capabilities, including adjustable yield, 1,700-mile range, and accuracy within tens of meters, make the US ALCM with the W80-1 a versatile and valuable tactical nuclear weapon.
Strategic nuclear weapons in the US/NATO arsenal include intercontinental ballistic missiles, land-based and submarine-launched, with multiple independent re-entry vehicle (MIRV) warheads. Advanced multiple re-entry vehicles, known as multiple adjustable re-entry vehicles (MARV)
** can control their flight path using adjustable hypersonic airfoils after release. This feature allows them to maneuver to hit targets within a few hundred kilometers of the release point. The cost of deploying MIRV and MARV systems is much less than the cost of upgrading ABM defense systems to intercept multiple warheads.
An example of US strategic nuclear capability is the 14 Ohio class submarines now in service equipped with 24 Trident II missiles each. These weapons have a range of more than 12, 000 kilometers and carry either 8 or 14 thermonuclear warheads with a yield of at least 100 kilotons each. The US also has 400 land-based Minuteman III ICBMs in silos in northern midwest and mountain states.
British Chevaline warheads, used with their Polaris missile system, release chaff and decoys making it more difficult for ABM defenses to intercept. Russia has mentioned the possibility of a nuclear attack on London, by name. If he doesn't already know, Chap may be interested in the fact that the Chevaline system was developed by his country as a direct challenge to the ABM defense system deployed to protect Moscow. UK nuclear arms experts are highly confident that the Chevaline system would be able to penetrate the Moscow ABM umbrella with one or more warheads.
France should be included in the nuclear-armed NATO forces that Russia would be up against in a strategic conflict. In addition to its air-launched cruise missiles, France has four Triomphant class boomer subs. Each is armed with 16 submarine-launched nuclear missiles. These missiles constitute about 80% of French nuclear capability in terms of total yield.
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Contrary to the way that Russia has behaved occasionally in the recent past, the Black Sea is not Russia's lake. Most of it is international waters and would make a great area from which to participate in the liberation of Ukraine.
**The re-entry trajectory profile for an ICBM is well understood. Individual MARV warheads are released at different points during the re-entry phase at the best altitude and angle to allow them to proceed to their target with minimal inflight maneuvering. The US arsenal includes MARV warheads that can lock on and track a target after release.
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ETA
Ukrainian Military Progress and Russain Nuke Threat Update 09/30/2022
https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-suf ... =DDMorning
Ukrainian sources claimed that the strategic city of Lyman, which has served as a Russian military hub in Donetsk, has been encircled and supply lines cut. “Lyman! The operation to encircle the Russian group is at the stage of completion,” said Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko on Friday. The claim could not be independently verified but, if confirmed, it would be one of the most serious Russian military losses of the war so far.
Russian state television political editor Maxim Yusin warned that Putin intended to push the button on a nuclear attack in the “coming days or weeks,” adding that people should “have fun because it would be a shame to live out the remaining time with pessimism.”