How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

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Kurt Gödel
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How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by Kurt Gödel »

(First time user/poster: nervous due to the high regard I have for this community. Here goes.)

How useful would having a reliable, thorough estimate of this current number, as well as forecasts of future numbers -backed up by a rigorous methodology rooted in a statistical and scientific analysis- be to “the cause” and/or this particular audience in this online community? (“the cause” in this context, let’s say, is to expose the sordid yellow underbelly of the LDS/Mormon church to the public and esp make this info available to the deluded faithful when they are ready for it?).

I’d propose a white paper produced quarterly via rigorous methodology in the vein of what The Widows Mite has provided to readers to expose so called church finances would be extremely useful and powerful via the leverage of knowledge it would provide. The so called church actively hides/protects these numbers with an intensity perhaps only rivaled by their secrecy of institutional finances. Seems obvious, then, that the grifting leaders/executives and their horrifically corrupt institution have a lot to lose if the real numbers were known/estimated with as much piercing accuracy/precision as possible, and distributed as widely as possible; and humanity/civilization would have a lot to gain?

If not very useful why not? If useful, why?

If you are interested and believe it’d be useful/worthwhile, please let me know and let’s make an effort to pool/coordinate our time, talents (and give our lives and everything we may possess…j/k) towards producing and disseminating a white paper like this.

What are the numbers you’ve come up with currently? Would you also please share at least a little about how you arrived at (esp data and sources used) your estimate?

My estimates:

2,000,000-4,000,000, based on data accrued from posts and the info in external links posted to the ExMo Reddit sub over the last approximately 2.8 years. It wouldn’t be too difficult (and it’ll be worth the effort to me if anyone were to request it) to locate/identify/communicate the majority of the specific sources of data, and data, used in arriving at these numbers. Let me know if anyone out there is interested in this additional level of info and I’ll drill down into the posts I’ve riffed off of in my calcs and provide this additional info to you.

I’ve been running these numbers since Jan 2020 when I first answered in the affirmative to the question “if it didn’t turn out to in fact be true, would I want to know?” These are speculation on my part, of course, though I’ll submit my professional role in real life is that of professional estimator of costs to run major programs/projects (in the $Billions) -and prospective projects- and provide my analyses of the current data for forecasting decisions and risk control based on macro and micro economic/finance data, for a large well established corporation.

Based on all the data/input I’ve been able to locate and use to crunch these numbers: I’m estimating there are only between 2 million (this min is generous) and 4 million (and this max is being very very generous) members worldwide who are truly active, ie engaged, all in, believing members who are consistently practicing and paying 10% without fail (and honestly in compliance with the Spirit and Letter of the tithing req.s) on their gross yearly income and wearing out/giving their entire life -and in full accordance with the temple blood oaths- to the one true cult.
dastardly stem
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by dastardly stem »

I'm game.

My estimates range between 3,904,990 and 4,680,250.

I broke it down by Country and then area, or continent (Basically). I took the total number of members as reported by the Church by country, and the number of congregations. I averaged the number of members per ward ranging between 150 and 175, the number of members per branch ranging between 50 and 75. I made adjustments when I could find activity rates broken down.

Here's a graphic look at change using my method:
change rates.JPG
change rates.JPG (55.88 KiB) Viewed 154 times
The visual shows the change in membership compared to the change in "expected" or active members. Europe and Oceania showed a decrease in active over the 5 years examined.
“Every one of us is, in the cosmic perspective, precious. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.”
― Carl Sagan, Cosmos
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Moksha
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by Moksha »

This would be of interest to many people eager for LDS statistics.

So far the most accurate numbers come from the BYU football statisticians. Did you know that BYU has had an unbroken string of moral victories since its first game against Provo High School? Pretty impressive. Now to find out the total number of active Latter-day Saints. That too would be impressive.
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Kurt Gödel
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by Kurt Gödel »

dastardly stem wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:15 pm
I'm game.

My estimates range between 3,904,990 and 4,680,250.

I broke it down by Country and then area, or continent (Basically). I took the total number of members as reported by the Church by country, and the number of congregations. I averaged the number of members per ward ranging between 150 and 175, the number of members per branch ranging between 50 and 75. I made adjustments when I could find activity rates broken down.

Here's a graphic look at change using my method:

change rates.JPG

The visual shows the change in membership compared to the change in "expected" or active members. Europe and Oceania showed a decrease in active over the 5 years examined.
Informative and Exciting. I’ll be in touch/get back to you as soon as I’m able.
dastardly stem
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by dastardly stem »

Ah...here's another taste with the same graphic for Europe:
Europe Mem Change.JPG
Europe Mem Change.JPG (63.36 KiB) Viewed 147 times
“Every one of us is, in the cosmic perspective, precious. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.”
― Carl Sagan, Cosmos
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Moksha
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by Moksha »

Are there active soccer baptisms happening in Spain?
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dastardly stem
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by dastardly stem »

Portugal too had a pretty hefty increase in number of members over those 5 years. Guess the whole Iberian peninsula was showered with gods spirit...then again the active numbers actually went down for both countries.
“Every one of us is, in the cosmic perspective, precious. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.”
― Carl Sagan, Cosmos
dastardly stem
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by dastardly stem »

here I have a few. Three more areas:
NA Mem Change.JPG
NA Mem Change.JPG (59.61 KiB) Viewed 129 times
Asia Mem Change.JPG
Asia Mem Change.JPG (55.87 KiB) Viewed 129 times
Africa Mem Change.JPG
Africa Mem Change.JPG (64.33 KiB) Viewed 129 times
“Every one of us is, in the cosmic perspective, precious. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.”
― Carl Sagan, Cosmos
dastardly stem
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by dastardly stem »

And Oceania and SA:
SA Mem Change.JPG
SA Mem Change.JPG (57.04 KiB) Viewed 129 times
Oceania Mem Change.JPG
Oceania Mem Change.JPG (59.11 KiB) Viewed 129 times
“Every one of us is, in the cosmic perspective, precious. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.”
― Carl Sagan, Cosmos
Marcus
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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?

Post by Marcus »

dastardly stem wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:15 pm
I'm game.

My estimates range between 3,904,990 and 4,680,250.

I broke it down by Country and then area, or continent (Basically). I took the total number of members as reported by the Church by country, and the number of congregations. I averaged the number of members per ward ranging between 150 and 175, the number of members per branch ranging between 50 and 75. I made adjustments when I could find activity rates broken down. ...
thanks for posting your data, it gives a great overview.

I think your assessment of activity size is very, very strong, especially if you note the occupancy limitations on lds ward buildings. i'll have to see if i can find my reference, but If I recall correctly, the average ward building being built now has an occupancy limit in the chapel of around 150-200. But, the average ward size according to this site is 605.

Just as a back-of-the-envelope calculation, then, the average physical upper boundary per ward is about 25% to 30% of listed ward membership. This is a hard upper boundary, and i don't think the lds church would risk the fines and violations if they believed they were anywhere near it.

25% of 16,805,400 is 4.2 million.
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