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Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:11 pm
by dastardly stem
Marcus wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:01 pm
dastardly stem wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:15 pm
I'm game.
My estimates range between 3,904,990 and 4,680,250.
I broke it down by Country and then area, or continent (Basically). I took the total number of members as reported by the Church by country, and the number of congregations. I averaged the number of members per ward ranging between 150 and 175, the number of members per branch ranging between 50 and 75. I made adjustments when I could find activity rates broken down. ...
thanks for posting your data, it gives a great overview.
I think your assessment of activity size is very, very strong, especially if you note the occupancy limitations on lds ward buildings. i'll have to see if i can find my reference, but If I recall correctly, the average ward building being built now has an occupancy limit in the chapel of around 150-200. But, the average ward size
according to this site is 605.
Just as a back-of-the-envelope calculation, then, the average physical upper boundary per ward is about 25% to 30% of listed ward membership. This is a hard upper boundary, and i don't think the lds church would risk the fines and violations if they believed they were anywhere near it.
25% of 16,805,400 is 4.2 million.
Great. And just a point of clarification, I meant to say "I averaged the number of
active members per ward to range between 150-175" and the number of active members per branch to be between 50-75". Not sure that was clear after seeing your post.
But yes, I'd say your quick assessment has it's value to. All assumptions in place that seems to be about right and falls basically right in the middle of the range I've calculated. Your comment about ward building size also suggests, as others who have given me feedback have said, my lower bound may be too high. I should show a wider range with a lower lower bound if say ward average activity was closer to 125, or something. I certainly could be convinced of this.
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:23 pm
by Dr Moore
Then adjust for children, of whom we know some 75% will be inactive by age 20.
Believing active adults probably closer to 2 million.
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:26 pm
by Marcus
dastardly stem wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:11 pm
Marcus wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:01 pm
thanks for posting your data, it gives a great overview.
I think your assessment of activity size is very, very strong, especially if you note the occupancy limitations on lds ward buildings. i'll have to see if i can find my reference, but If I recall correctly, the average ward building being built now has an occupancy limit in the chapel of around 150-200. But, the average ward size
according to this site is 605.
Just as a back-of-the-envelope calculation, then, the average physical upper boundary per ward is about 25% to 30% of listed ward membership. This is a hard upper boundary, and i don't think the lds church would risk the fines and violations if they believed they were anywhere near it.
25% of 16,805,400 is 4.2 million.
Great. And just a point of clarification, I meant to say "I averaged the number of
active members per ward to range between 150-175" and the number of active members per branch to be between 50-75". Not sure that was clear after seeing your post.
oh no, i got that! your point was coming through very clearly.
But yes, I'd say your quick assessment has it's value to. All assumptions in place that seems to be about right and falls basically right in the middle of the range I've calculated.
Yes, it's just a calculation coming from a very different angle, and it supports your analysis very well. i think it also indicates that church leaders have this internal understanding as well, in spite of the inflated numbers they announce externally.
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:06 pm
by toon
Are there published polls, surveys of religious preferences, or even census date (depending on the country) that at least indicates those who self-identify as Mormon? While even then you'll get some who are inactive but still identify as LDS, but you'd likely weed out those still on the rolls but who no longer identify as Mormon (like me). It may show a more accurate upper limit on church membership.
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:09 pm
by Dr Moore
By the way, let's say active believing adults is ballpark, 2-2.5 million.
Now it makes a little more sense in context of social media followers.
Twitter @Ch_JesusChrist 416k (20% of believing active adults)
Twitter - Apostles approx 100k-500k (5-25% of believing active adults)
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:49 pm
by Binger
Dr Moore wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:09 pm
By the way, let's say active believing adults is ballpark, 2-2.5 million.
Now it makes a little more sense in context of social media followers.
Twitter @Ch_JesusChrist 416k (20% of believing active adults)
Twitter - Apostles approx 100k-500k (5-25% of believing active adults)
Apostles actually on Twitter - 0%
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:34 am
by drumdude
What an incredibly small religion. It actually makes more sense why they are hoarding money. They are terrified of shrinking away, and in the grand scheme of things becomming irrelevant.
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 am
by Bond
Dr Moore wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:09 pm
Twitter @Ch_JesusChrist 416k (20% of believing active adults)
And the percentage of critics (or neutrals like journalists) who follow just to keep an eye on the Church's Twitter account is probably at least 5-10%.
Re: How many true believing, active members of the LDS/Mormon church are there worldwide?
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:46 am
by IHAQ
It was quite a few years ago now, but a Europe Area Presidency report leaked online which contained some data points relevant to this discussion. Firstly, Sacrament attendance across Europe ran at 20% of claimed membership. Of this 20%, only half were temple recommend holding adults. I see no reason to think those rates have changed dramatically in the intervening years.