Is it time for the church to admit it is shrinking in the US?
Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2023 3:40 am
https://wheatandtares.org/2023/08/16/a- ... ng-church/
If the LDS Church were shrinking, would you know it? The question of whether the Church is growing or shrinking is a relevant issue for a variety of reasons. Just off the top of my head, I can think of: (1) The huge investment in member time and money in supporting roughly sixty thousand full-time LDS proselyting missionaries. That investment and sacrifice is a lot less appealing if the end result is fewer members, not more members. And: (2) the oft-repeated metaphor of the Church as the stone cut from the mountain, growing as it rolls down the hill until it fills the earth. If the stone shrinks as it rolls down the mountain, there might be nothing left when it reaches the bottom of the slope. That’s an entirely different metaphor for the future of the Church.
But the more specific question is: If the LDS Church were shrinking, would you know it? How would you know it? I can tell you one way you would *not* know it. No apostle is going to stand up in Conference and give a talk that starts like this: “Brothers and sisters, I have some sad news to report: The Church is shrinking.” Nope, not gonna happen. Even if there were reliable statistics to that effect (and the Church collects an awful lot of statistics) such a public statement would never be made. Even if said apostle was in possession of reliable statistics that showed the Church was shrinking, what would be said (if anything) would something like this: “Brothers and sisters, I have visited many states and many countries over the last twelve months on various Church assignments, and I am thrilled to report that the Church and its members are stronger than ever.”
A related methodological question is how to define a shrinking Church. What do we measure? What exactly is shrinking? Total formal membership? Total active membership? Total stakes and districts? Total wards and branches? Tithing contributions? I have not been an active follower or the various analyses of LDS statistical reports, but let’s look at just the most recent LDS statistical reports to get a sense of what is going on: What they are telling us and what they are not telling us. I’m looking at official LDS reporting as of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2022.
Total Membership. Year-end 2021 was 16,805,400. Year-end 2022 was 17,002,461. That’s an increase of 197,061, or a little over 1%. But those numbers are not as meaningful as you might think. First, the reported total membership number includes lots of dead people. When an active member dies, that information gets reported up the chain, but when inactive members with no connection to a ward (but still on the rolls at the COB) dies, nothing gets reported up the chain. They stay on the rolls as “dead people counted as members of the Church” (a statistical category I just made up, because it is obviously a thing even if it is not acknowledged or reported by the Church). Only when these dead people still on the official roll reach the age of 120, I’m told, are they dropped from the rolls. Perhaps there is a special section in the spirit world for these undead spirits: “Sorry, you all can’t go mingle with the other spirits until the Church acknowledges that you are no longer living. It will only be a few decades.” There must be several hundred thousand of these undead souls who were, at some point in their lives, baptized as LDS.
Second, total membership is not broken out by country. The Church certainly has total membership statistics by country, but doesn’t release them publicly, at least to my knowledge. If total membership is growing in some areas but overall total membership is fairly flat, the reasonable inference is that total membership is shrinking in other places. Like maybe in the United States, where there seems to be a steady stream of bad PR stories that hit the news from month to month.
Third, what we really want to know is active membership. Even with the fairly lax standard that “active member” is someone who attends at least one meeting a month, we all know that “active membership” is maybe one-third of total membership. Just look at your ward list. But the Church does not report “active membership.” It’s possible that internally tracked “active membership” is dropping, even as publicly reported “total membership” is slightly growing. If active membership is your measure of whether the Church is growing or shrinking, it may in fact be the case that right now the Church is shrinking. They just won’t tell you (and won’t publish the statistics that would allow you to make that determination for yourself).
Measuring Active Membership. A better measure of active membership is total units, which is publicly reported. From year-end 2021 to year-end 2022, reported wards and branches went from 31,315 to 31,330. That is basically zero growth (okay, it’s .05%). This is another indication that the “active Church” is now shrinking. And that’s a worldwide measure. In Europe and the United States (and Canada, let’s not forget Canada) the “active Church” is almost certainly shrinking. If the number of wards and branches in the worldwide Church is flat and they are forming new wards and branches in Africa and a few other places, then wards and branches are being merged or dissolved in other places.
What does it mean to live in a shrinking Church? There’s a topic you won’t hear in General Conference or in Sacrament Meeting. But it is certainly the case that living in a shrinking Church brings a different mentality, a different attitude. Think of where you work. If the company is growing, there is a positive attitude. Budgets are going up. Raises are handed out. New leadership positions open up for your next promotion. The company is hiring new employees. But if the company is in a downturn with fewer sales and lower revenue, bad things happen. Budgets go down. People get terminated, even good employees, say when an entire department or division gets closed down. Everyone gets nervous, wondering if they or their department might be the next to go. An entirely different mindset settles over the entire company. Just as managers of a shrinking company loudly deny the company is shrinking (This is just a temporary downturn! Our turnaround plan is going to work!), LDS leaders will deny the Church is shrinking no matter how glaring the statistics or other evidence. The last thing LDS leaders want is for the rank and file to get depressed about the Church, stop attending meetings, and stop paying tithing.
So here are some questions to ponder given the almost certain fact that the “active Church” is now shrinking in many places, particularly in the US, Canada, and Europe.
If the LDS Church were shrinking, would you know it? The question of whether the Church is growing or shrinking is a relevant issue for a variety of reasons. Just off the top of my head, I can think of: (1) The huge investment in member time and money in supporting roughly sixty thousand full-time LDS proselyting missionaries. That investment and sacrifice is a lot less appealing if the end result is fewer members, not more members. And: (2) the oft-repeated metaphor of the Church as the stone cut from the mountain, growing as it rolls down the hill until it fills the earth. If the stone shrinks as it rolls down the mountain, there might be nothing left when it reaches the bottom of the slope. That’s an entirely different metaphor for the future of the Church.
But the more specific question is: If the LDS Church were shrinking, would you know it? How would you know it? I can tell you one way you would *not* know it. No apostle is going to stand up in Conference and give a talk that starts like this: “Brothers and sisters, I have some sad news to report: The Church is shrinking.” Nope, not gonna happen. Even if there were reliable statistics to that effect (and the Church collects an awful lot of statistics) such a public statement would never be made. Even if said apostle was in possession of reliable statistics that showed the Church was shrinking, what would be said (if anything) would something like this: “Brothers and sisters, I have visited many states and many countries over the last twelve months on various Church assignments, and I am thrilled to report that the Church and its members are stronger than ever.”
A related methodological question is how to define a shrinking Church. What do we measure? What exactly is shrinking? Total formal membership? Total active membership? Total stakes and districts? Total wards and branches? Tithing contributions? I have not been an active follower or the various analyses of LDS statistical reports, but let’s look at just the most recent LDS statistical reports to get a sense of what is going on: What they are telling us and what they are not telling us. I’m looking at official LDS reporting as of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2022.
Total Membership. Year-end 2021 was 16,805,400. Year-end 2022 was 17,002,461. That’s an increase of 197,061, or a little over 1%. But those numbers are not as meaningful as you might think. First, the reported total membership number includes lots of dead people. When an active member dies, that information gets reported up the chain, but when inactive members with no connection to a ward (but still on the rolls at the COB) dies, nothing gets reported up the chain. They stay on the rolls as “dead people counted as members of the Church” (a statistical category I just made up, because it is obviously a thing even if it is not acknowledged or reported by the Church). Only when these dead people still on the official roll reach the age of 120, I’m told, are they dropped from the rolls. Perhaps there is a special section in the spirit world for these undead spirits: “Sorry, you all can’t go mingle with the other spirits until the Church acknowledges that you are no longer living. It will only be a few decades.” There must be several hundred thousand of these undead souls who were, at some point in their lives, baptized as LDS.
Second, total membership is not broken out by country. The Church certainly has total membership statistics by country, but doesn’t release them publicly, at least to my knowledge. If total membership is growing in some areas but overall total membership is fairly flat, the reasonable inference is that total membership is shrinking in other places. Like maybe in the United States, where there seems to be a steady stream of bad PR stories that hit the news from month to month.
Third, what we really want to know is active membership. Even with the fairly lax standard that “active member” is someone who attends at least one meeting a month, we all know that “active membership” is maybe one-third of total membership. Just look at your ward list. But the Church does not report “active membership.” It’s possible that internally tracked “active membership” is dropping, even as publicly reported “total membership” is slightly growing. If active membership is your measure of whether the Church is growing or shrinking, it may in fact be the case that right now the Church is shrinking. They just won’t tell you (and won’t publish the statistics that would allow you to make that determination for yourself).
Measuring Active Membership. A better measure of active membership is total units, which is publicly reported. From year-end 2021 to year-end 2022, reported wards and branches went from 31,315 to 31,330. That is basically zero growth (okay, it’s .05%). This is another indication that the “active Church” is now shrinking. And that’s a worldwide measure. In Europe and the United States (and Canada, let’s not forget Canada) the “active Church” is almost certainly shrinking. If the number of wards and branches in the worldwide Church is flat and they are forming new wards and branches in Africa and a few other places, then wards and branches are being merged or dissolved in other places.
What does it mean to live in a shrinking Church? There’s a topic you won’t hear in General Conference or in Sacrament Meeting. But it is certainly the case that living in a shrinking Church brings a different mentality, a different attitude. Think of where you work. If the company is growing, there is a positive attitude. Budgets are going up. Raises are handed out. New leadership positions open up for your next promotion. The company is hiring new employees. But if the company is in a downturn with fewer sales and lower revenue, bad things happen. Budgets go down. People get terminated, even good employees, say when an entire department or division gets closed down. Everyone gets nervous, wondering if they or their department might be the next to go. An entirely different mindset settles over the entire company. Just as managers of a shrinking company loudly deny the company is shrinking (This is just a temporary downturn! Our turnaround plan is going to work!), LDS leaders will deny the Church is shrinking no matter how glaring the statistics or other evidence. The last thing LDS leaders want is for the rank and file to get depressed about the Church, stop attending meetings, and stop paying tithing.
So here are some questions to ponder given the almost certain fact that the “active Church” is now shrinking in many places, particularly in the US, Canada, and Europe.
- Has it ever occurred to you that the Church is now shrinking? Is this old news or a new revelation?
- Is it obvious to you that the Church in your country, state, stake, or ward is shrinking? What tells you your ward or stake is shrinking? Is there a dead canary in your local Church mine that tipped you off?
- Has your attitude changed as the Church globally or the Church in your particular community flipped from growth mode to retrenchment mode?
- I see very little change in LDS discourse, which creates another layer of dissonance. It’s one thing to live in a shrinking Church. It’s another thing to live in a shrinking Church where no one will acknowledge that it is shrinking.
- What’s the better option for leadership, claiming all is well in Zion when it is increasingly evident it is not? Or acknowledging that Good Ship Zion is slowly sinking and dealing with the fallout?