Survey finds 50%-75% of members leave the Church

[I Have Questions]

I know, that’s hard to believe. I had to read it twice to make sure I understood it. A mission president whose son left the church, organised and conducted a survey of 15,000 people. Here is the finding from the article about it that prompted the thread title:

About 60% of survey takers were current LDS church members, and 40% were people who had left. The survey’s current members skewed active, meaning they were more likely than average members to attend church regularly and consider themselves devout.

The data showed that it’s the most devout members who have the hardest time understanding and relating to family members and friends who have left.

“People who self-identified as more devout picked the wrong answer twice as often,” Strong said.

For example, 75% of devout respondents greatly underestimated how many people are actually leaving, with most choosing the “zero to 25%” option when the correct answer is more likely in the “50% to 75%” range.

That is a staggering amount.

[Res Ipsa]

It’s also simply an asserted figure, without any stated evidence or support. It would be interesting to know what he is relying on. The survey itself doesn’t sound designed to generate that type of conclusion.

A large but self-selected sample is problematic.

[I Have Questions]

It’s also simply an asserted figure, without any stated evidence or support. It would be interesting to know what he is relying on. The survey itself doesn’t sound designed to generate that type of conclusion.

A large but self-selected sample is problematic.

I agree completely. The thing for me was that this is from a devout and active member who is trying to help members understand what it is that’s going on, why, and how best to handle it when it happens in their families. Torn website description of this book from the research…

Torn offers a compassionate, research-driven look at why so many people step away from the Church—and what their stories can teach us about faith, trust, culture, and belonging.

Clearly he has found a big number do during his research.

[Dr. Shades]

The survey’s current members skewed active, meaning they were more likely than average members to attend church regularly and consider themselves devout.

What's the difference between a "current member" and an "average member?"

[I Have Questions]

The survey’s current members skewed active, meaning they were more likely than average members to attend church regularly and consider themselves devout.

What's the difference between a "current member" and an "average member?"

No idea. I don’t have the book.

[Res Ipsa]

It’s also simply an asserted figure, without any stated evidence or support. It would be interesting to know what he is relying on. The survey itself doesn’t sound designed to generate that type of conclusion.

A large but self-selected sample is problematic.

I agree completely. The thing for me was that this is from a devout and active member who is trying to help members understand what it is that’s going on, why, and how best to handle it when it happens in their families. Torn website description of this book from the research…

Torn offers a compassionate, research-driven look at why so many people step away from the Church—and what their stories can teach us about faith, trust, culture, and belonging.

Clearly he has found a big number do during his research.

I think it makes sense that current members would underestimate the rate of out switching. I'm just a little skeptical of the 50-75% range.

[Res Ipsa]

The survey’s current members skewed active, meaning they were more likely than average members to attend church regularly and consider themselves devout.

What's the difference between a "current member" and an "average member?"

It sounds like a "current member" is a person included in the survey that identified themselves as such. An average member would be the average over all members of some characteristic like average attendance or percentage that described themselves as devout. I believe that either ARIS or Pew include that kind of average data.

[drumdude]

As far as I know there’s no distinction in Mormon Heaven between active and inactive members. Sure, you’re asked to endure to the end, but there’s nothing explicitly preventing someone from reaching the highest level of the celestial kingdom as long as they had their ordinances done at some point, right?

The church really needs to fix this gap. How about “families can be together forever as long as they keep paying 10 percent and scrubbing toilets every Saturday?”

Unless you’re DCP, of course. I can’t imagine he has done a round of cleaning at his local ward in quite some time…

[I Have Questions]

I agree completely. The thing for me was that this is from a devout and active member who is trying to help members understand what it is that’s going on, why, and how best to handle it when it happens in their families. Torn website description of this book from the research… Clearly he has found a big number do during his research.

I think it makes sense that current members would underestimate the rate of out switching. I'm just a little skeptical of the 50-75% range.

I’m also of the mind that it sounds on the high side. But when I think of congregations in the area where I’m from. There’s more than 80% of the names on the ward lists that now never attend. So I’m starting to think 50-75% is a credible estimate.

[Fence Sitter]

Given the Church’s claim of about 18 million members and the commonly estimated 5–7 million who actually self-identify as believing members, a 50–75% drop-off seems reasonable. That doesn’t even account for how many spouses or family members continue attending mainly to support loved ones or avoid conflict rather than from personal belief.