Distributor to DCP: Without 200K, "Witnesses" Will Flop

[Doctor Scratch]

Tom mentioned this on a separate thread, but I think this merits its own topic. In a recent "SeN" posting, the Executive Producer of "Witnesses" expressed some alarm over the prospects of the theatrical feature:

However, our distributor, Brandon Purdie, having watched the development of the Witnesses theatrical film for some time now, feels that our wonderful and dedicated filmmakers have created an exceptionally significant movie, and that we may be limiting the success that it will achieve and the impact that it will have if we don’t spend additional money on advertising.

A couple of months ago, he gave a lengthy, simply stunning, and, to me, entirely convincing presentation to our producer and director and to me on the need for an expanded advertising budget for Witnesses. Theater owners simply won’t take the risk of turning screens in their theaters over to films that, in their judgment, are unlikely to draw significant ticket-buying audiences. He gave us specific examples of LDS-oriented films that, in his expert judgment, had fallen short of the market that they could have achieved because their producers’ investment in advertising was incommensurate with the investment in the films themselves. He recommended a substantial additional investment–roughly $200K. If we want to get beyond the “Mormon corridor” at all, we’re going to need something like that amount. And fairly soon.

But, thus far, we don’t have that additional money. And I agonize over that. If Brandon Purdie is right — and he is, by universal consent, the expert on the distribution of LDS-oriented theatrical films — we may underachieve even with a very good film. And the thing we want most, once the film is done, is for it to have as wide a positive impact as it can possibly have.

That’s why I’m posting this. I haven’t discussed writing this blog entry with anybody. Not with my wife, not with the producer or the director, not with Ed Snow, not with Brandon Purdie, not with my board.

I worry. It’s my (unpaid) job to worry.

So I’m making a frank public appeal:

Wow: the "supreme expert" on on LDS films is telling him that the movie is likely to "underachieve" without this extra infusion of cash? You have to wonder what he meant by that: i.e., that it won't turn a profit? Or that it won't recoup the investment? I mean, the suggestion all along has been that this doesn't matter--that the goal was never to make money for anybody--at least, not for Dr. P. (Are others profiting from this, though? Such as his wife?) And what does DCP imagine the "wide...positive impact" will be? More conversions to the LDS Church? Warm fuzzy feelings for TBMs? Critics doubled over in laughter over the wireless mic? Tough to say. Well, things are not looking very good for "Witnesses" at the moment. Still, I'm looking forward to seeing, at least, the "real" trailer.

[Lem]

Maybe Peterson needs to verify what he's paying for. The Purdie Distribution site has a film section, but there is nothing about the Witnesses film even though they were hired around the film festival time last year, and supposedly they placed the trailer and poster in Megaplex theatres already. Also, the MegaPlex theatre YouTube channel has a playlist of its trailers online, but there is no mention of the Witnesses trailer.

Also, I thought he needed the extra $200k to make the 'snippets'. Now it's for advertising? What happened to the contract with BYU? And how will the 'snippets' get made if they are out of funds?

[Doctor Scratch]

Those are great points, Lemmie, and did you catch this?:

haven’t discussed writing this blog entry with anybody. Not with my wife, not with the producer or the director, not with Ed Snow, not with Brandon Purdie, not with my board.

Maybe it would have been wiser to run this past these folks, before announcing to the whole world that you're "worried[ied]" and that the film is apparently in dire financial straights and is likely to be a box office disaster?

[Lem]

Am I missing something here, Doctor Scratch? Aren't film Distributors responsible for marketing, in exchange for a percentage of ticket sales? Don't Distributors PAY for the rights to a film?

[Dr Moore]

I don't know, that $200k might go a lot farther than was believed 2-3 mos ago. Now that Universal and Disney have forced the exclusive theatrical window down to zero, theaters will be more willing to get creative in order to draw audiences, even with the impressive delayed slate of blockbuster tentpoles pushed into 2021.

If it were me, I would work with Utah/Idaho/Arizona theater owners to get Witnesses added to the slate of "Private Watch Party" options for private viewing parties up to 20 people at $149/screen. Zero marketing cost, just the usual theater split if/when Witnesses is selected from the range of watch party options.

If they can sell Witnesses private watch parties on 30 screens per day in those 3 states, then a 50% take rate (I believe 50/50 that is the going split) is 30 * $75, or $2,250 per day. Over the course of 6 months, it's $410,625 in ticket revenue.

[Doctor Scratch]

I don't know, that $200k might go a lot farther than was believed 2-3 mos ago. Now that Universal and Disney have forced the exclusive theatrical window down to zero, theaters will be more willing to get creative in order to draw audiences, even with the impressive delayed slate of blockbuster tentpoles pushed into 2021.

If it were me, I would work with Utah/Idaho/Arizona theater owners to get Witnesses added to the slate of "Private Watch Party" options for private viewing parties up to 20 people at $149/screen. Zero marketing cost, just the usual theater split if/when Witnesses is selected from the range of watch party options.

If they can sell Witnesses private watch parties on 30 screens per day in those 3 states, then a 50% take rate (I believe 50/50 that is the going split) is 30 * $75, or $2,250 per day. Over the course of 6 months, it's $410,625 in ticket revenue.

Yikes. They would need more than triple that amount just to break even, and even more than that if they sink 200K's worth of their supporters' money into this.

[Moksha]

Trying to entice theatres beyond the Morridor to run this movie is folly and the distributor is trying to fleece the donors of the Interpreter Foundation for $200,000 dollars.

Why not pay the Tower Theatre in Salt Lake City to run it for free at midnight, once a month, for the next five years? After a while, BYU students will start showing up in costume and recite lines to the screen. The Interpreter will have a cult-hit destined to become famous.

[Dr Moore]

Yikes. They would need more than triple that amount just to break even, and even more than that if they sink 200K's worth of their supporters' money into this.

True enough. This was an illustrative case to pre-release Witnesses for private screenings, not for broad theatrical ticket sales. Hope that makes sense. I don't think it would make sense to attempt any kind of regular theatrical introduction for Witnesses until late 2021, and only assuming successful vaccination programs and something approaching normal theater attendance levels. The latest figures from AMC and Cinemark suggest we're hovering around 3-5% of normal attendance right now -- it makes no sense to spend a dollar on marketing a new film in this environment.

I think of this private screening option as a stop-gap prior to broad theatrical release. There are scarce few "new" films available for these watch party events at theaters right now, and those are mediocre to terrible. The only other competition then are old films such as Jurassic Park and Hocus Pocus. In my mind, working chain managers and small theater owners in the Mormon corridor could serve a double benefit until theaters are back to something like "normal": (a) provide some revenue and free "buzz" based marketing, and (b) deliver evidence to would-be donors about the marketability of Witnesses next year, as Dr. P sets out to raise marketing dollars against a broader theatrical release.

In other words, don't spend $200k marketing the film now, and don't even try raising that money now. It's stupid - there is no point in spending those dollars for many, many months to come. Instead, try and get it slotted in to private watch party options right away within the Mormon corridor. Allow the film to gain some buzz, public reviews and a little revenue. Then wait for late 2021 with (hopefully) some data to justify raising and spending marketing funds.

[Doctor Scratch]

More excellent points, Dr. Moore. It sort of makes you wonder if DCP is getting gouged/"suckered" by his marketing advisors.

[Moksha]

Put that money into publishing, The Wit and Wisdom of Professor Louis Midgley.