But then things started to go off the rails. Elder Bednar had a whine about religious freedom and restrictions on gathering, the mask debaters got a hold of things, and the prophet, who knows better, failed to provide true leadership. Case numbers soon went crazy, and deaths soon followed.
It now appears that Utah is on track to becoming a national embarrassment as the US tries desperately to escape the pandemic. Almost 50% of men who voted for Trump (and many women) are refusing to get vaccinated, and there’s a lot of those folk in Utah. Utah is also the global headquarters of the wellness industry, which is infested with antivaxxers.
The signs are already starting to appear in the data. While Utah was quick out of the blocks with testing, the state is falling behind in COVID vaccination rates, and this is likely to get worse as the state runs out of willing volunteers. As pressure mounts, in the coming weeks, we are going to see all sorts of excuses for why people are not going to get vaccinated.
In Facebook communities linked to Mormons I am hearing people claim the vaccine causes blood clots. This is most likely linked to media stories in Europe. Several European countries recently paused the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine because of a scare about blood clots. A journo read somewhere that after 20-40 million shots of the vaccine there were 37 cases of blood clots and four fatalities. As a result, politicians in a heap of European countries paused the use of the vaccine while they consulted medical experts.
To their credit, the Australian and New Zealand governments trusted their medical experts, who were already familiar with the data. They had identified no link between the AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots, so use of the vaccine continued. European health authorities also found no link and the vaccine rollout resumed. We will never know how many lives were lost because of this delay in vaccinations, but it is likely to be in the thousands.
The problem health scientists face all the time is that it is impossible to prove a negative; that the vaccine does not cause any number of medical issues. But that does not make the vaccine any less safe. The best scientists can do is compare the incidence of illnesses in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.
Unfortunately, living is risky, and people get sick and die every day. I just looked at Australia’s rates of disease and death and calculated the daily incidences. For every million Australians, about 16 will die tomorrow. For the lucky ones who survive, this is what the next 24 hours has in store.
𝟭 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸,
𝟮 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘁𝘀,
𝟰 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱
𝟭𝟲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗴𝗻𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿.
In 72 hours, the numbers just triple. So, the observation that 41 people had blood clots after 40 million inoculations (about 1 per million) looks far less alarming, when you consider the incidence in the Australian population is 2 per million. The data for the US will be in the same ballpark.
There is currently no evidence the vaccine causes clots and there is no clear scientific reason to believe the components in the vaccine could lead to someone getting clots, having a heart attack or stroke or getting cancer. While looking at Australia's death data, another factoid that lept out at me was the 70% decline in the standardised death rate during the last century. Most of that decline was due to vaccines.
All medical procedures carry a risk, but with vaccines the risk is infinitesimally small compared to the huge benefits. The biggest risk is anaphylactic shock immediately after the injection, which occurs in about 1 to 5 individuals per million. But all health professionals administering the vaccine are aware of this risk and have on hand the necessary drugs to treat this problem. Interestingly, the greatest risk of injury from the smallpox vaccine was incorrect placement of the needle into the shoulder joint, causing inflammation.
𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗔𝗖𝗧𝗦 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗲. For every million people vaccinated, roughly 30,000 lives will be saved and many more will be spared the lingering injuries the disease is known to cause. It can be very frustrating when negative anecdotal reports get so much attention, because they pull at the heartstrings, when the positive scientific data is overwhelming.
I am now beginning to hear Facebook Mormons say it is their personal choice not to get vaccinated and that people should respect that. But unless you have a medical condition, that puts you at significant risk, if you choose not to get vaccinated, you are helping to prolong the pandemic and directly contributing to death and illness in your community. That’s about as unchristian as it gets.
At the same time these people are enforcing their personal liberties, they are reducing the rights of others through increased public health costs, restrictive public health regulations, and allowing an infection reservoir to exist where new strains can emerge.
Where Utah goes in the next few months is very much in the hands of one man. Will he have the courage to do what is right? After the uproar over the Friend endorsing vaccination, I doubt it.
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