DiscussMormonism.com

According to the annual statistical report, Church membership is now at 16,663,663 and only grew 0.60%. This is the lowest recorded growth rate since 1857.
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.or ... cal-report

This is an increase of only 98,627 members from last year’s membership numbers of 16,565,036 members.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chu ... ip_history

Obviously COVID had some impact, but the Church has gone through other epidemics, world wars and catastrophes, but still didn’t record growth this slow.

This year's results look like a significant break from that very unusual and stable total lds membership growth, virtually indistinguishable from linear, that we've discussed a couple of times. Interesting. How convenient a more realistic number is posted in exactly the same year there is a legit world event to blame it on.

Optimist would say, it’s easy comps for 2021 and 2022, as missionaries out in field ramp back up. Some of the convert numbers are just that, a numbers game.

Church membership should always grow, even in the complete absence of conversions, since Mormons have children.

The point is to look at the growth rate, compare it with the normal population growth rate, and then examine the difference. Even without any conversions, it ought to be greater than the normal population growth rate, since Mormon families tend to have more children than average. If it isn't, the church has serious problems, because it will show that Mormon children are leaving the church.

Chap wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:52 am

Church membership should always grow, even in the complete absence of conversions, since Mormons have children.

The point is to look at the growth rate, compare it with the normal population growth rate, and then examine the difference. Even without any conversions, it ought to be greater than the normal population growth rate, since Mormon families tend to have more children than average. If it isn't, the church has serious problems, because it will show that Mormon children are leaving the church.

Do you think that's true in Africa, where much of the world's population growth is expected to occur for the rest of the century? I have no idea.

InCognitus over on MDDB has posted raw numbers back to early years here. As Lem mentions, the 90s through the 00s were a weirdly linear era. The year-to-year variations are substantial enough that it’s hard to attribute the stability to deliberate fakery; the numbers aren’t steady enough to make most years look good. But the numbers gained annually just bounce around 300K or so for a good twenty years, like a dieter’s day-to-day weight in a long plateau. The long-term trend in that time is an uncanny straight line, with statistically stable annual noise.

I still have no idea why the growth was like that back then. I find it hard to explain. Talking about percentage growth rates in that era only hides whatever the real story was. But whatever it was seems to have ended several years ago now, well before the pandemic but also well after the Internet. We’re in a different era now, seemingly, and I don’t know why the change occurred, either.

Perhaps this year just has too many measurement errors which will be corrected. For example, if they use baby blessings to count members of record, then many of those might just be delayed until post-Covid restrictions. And there could be would-be converts who cannot get baptized yet.

Res Ipsa wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:17 am

Chap wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:52 am

Church membership should always grow, even in the complete absence of conversions, since Mormons have children.

The point is to look at the growth rate, compare it with the normal population growth rate, and then examine the difference. Even without any conversions, it ought to be greater than the normal population growth rate, since Mormon families tend to have more children than average. If it isn't, the church has serious problems, because it will show that Mormon children are leaving the church.

Do you think that's true in Africa, where much of the world's population growth is expected to occur for the rest of the century? I have no idea.

My message was sent in the light of my recollections of a quantitative analysis that took place on this board a few years ago, centering (I recall) on membership of the CoJCoLDS in the US, where one can be fairly sure of the origin and level of reliability of the data. It became clear that taking figures for family size, membership estimated by a self-identification survey sampling the whole US population, and claimed conversions over a decade or so, children of Mormon families were ceasing to self-identify as Mormons in quite large numbers.

Chap wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:52 am

Church membership should always grow, even in the complete absence of conversions, since Mormons have children.

If you take deaths into account, growth might not always be a given.

Chap wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 04, 2021 1:16 pm

Res Ipsa wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:17 am

Do you think that's true in Africa, where much of the world's population growth is expected to occur for the rest of the century? I have no idea.

My message was sent in the light of my recollections of a quantitative analysis that took place on this board a few years ago, centering (I recall) on membership of the CoJCoLDS in the US, where one can be fairly sure of the origin and level of reliability of the data. It became clear that taking figures for family size, membership estimated by a self-identification survey sampling the whole US population, and claimed conversions over a decade or so, children of Mormon families were ceasing to self-identify as Mormons in quite large numbers.

Yeah, that sounds reasonable to me in the US.