krose wrote:richardMdBorn wrote:Yep, the Obama administration promised while ramming through the stimulus package that unemployment wouldn't exceed 8%.
CFR
richardMdBorn wrote:That's a reasonable request.http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1910208,00.htmlBack in early January, when Barack Obama was still President-elect, two of his chief economic advisers — leading proponents of a stimulus bill — predicted that the passage of a large economic-aid package would boost the economy and keep the unemployment rate below 8%. It hasn't quite worked out that way. Last month, the jobless rate in the U.S. hit 9.5%, the highest level it has reached since 1983.
The two advisers who wrote the paper, Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, went on to land key jobs in the Obama Administration. Romer is the head of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, and Bernstein is the chief economist and economic-policy adviser to Vice President Joe Biden. And the stimulus bill that both economists championed became law in mid-February. What has not come to pass, however, is the boom in job creation that Romer and Bernstein predicted.
More than three years later, the unemployment rate is still above 8%. And it would be much higher if so many discouraged workers had not dropped our of the job market.
I was hoping you might have something more than the often-quoted Romer/Bernstein paper that projected the unemployment rate would be below 8% as a best-case scenario.
I wonder how many people would agree that a projection by a couple of future staffers constitutes a "promise"? Or as Romney continues to say, "The president promised that unemployment would stay below 8%."
Clearly these two underestimated how bad the economy really was, and they let hope get the better of them. You can tell this is the case by their projection that the rate would peak at 9% even without any stimulus.
In actuality, jobless numbers were climbing steadily, in almost a straight line, from early 2008 to late 2009. The recession was too deep, and the stimulus was too small to make a difference in a few months. The situation called for a much larger, more aggressive injection of stimulus money.