Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running gov

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_EAllusion
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _EAllusion »

Droopy wrote:
False (depending upon what one means here).


I mean they aren't scientists as in they aren't professionally practicing and educated scientists. Less than a third have Ph.D's. Fewer still hold a degree in a scientific field. Fewer still appear to actually be actively in practice. Do you think people with bachelor degrees in anthropology are scientists?

and almost no one is in a field related to climatology.

1. Correct, but irrelevant (the substantial majority are trained in mathematics, logical thought, scientific method, statistics, computer science etc.).

Being a scientist generally, or less than that, doesn't give one much, if any expertise to discuss climate science and therefore their opinion carries little authoritative weight, which is what the petition is intended to convey. It is of little more value than you signing the petition. Having a masters in mechanical engineering and working on designing ventilation ducts does not, in fact, make you scientifically qualified to speak on the quality of climate system modeling.
2. Correct, but neither does is the IPCC composed of anything but a small minority of actual research scientists, and only a small fraction of that minority are qualified in "climate science" or any closely allied fields.


Every major scientific organization composed of climate-related scientific fields endorses the view that the earth is warming due human activities and this is by far the prevailing view among climatologists. Almost all research published in top tier journals supports this view. Perhaps here you'll say, "science isn't done by concensus" again, failing to distinguish yourself from a crude bot program, and misunderstanding the point.


Didn't quite get this part.


The petition summary that asks to be endorsed refers to catastrophic changes. However, catastrophic is a subjective term that people may disagree with while thinking that global warming is real, a problem, and driven by human activity. A person might think the latter while thinking it manageable enough not to be "catastrophic." Indeed, when people have gone back and attempted to interview petition signatory samples, they've found a decent % wouldn't have signed if they knew how it would be portrayed. The petition does not seem interested in doing any legwork to verify those who sign, which leads to all sorts of problems with figuring out what the list means. There's probably just a very small core of people with actual relevant expertise who have signed the petition and endorse the message that users of it want to convey. That defeats the purpose of the 30,000+ thousand scientists claim.

1. CAGW (DAGW) is dead as a serious scientific theory, which is saying a great deal because it never made it, empirically speaking, out of the hypothesis stage.

False.

2. Dissent to DAGW has been substantial for well over 20 years, and has now reached intense levels, given the overwhelming lack of empirical support for the concept and in spite of the continuing of the buying of influence within American science through the saturation of it with oceans of government grant money.

False.

3. Science is not done by consensus.


This comment in now way addresses the fact that the petition attempts to portray a level of dissent to create significance that does not actually exist.

Do you want to defend Art Robinson's HIV denialism next?
_EAllusion
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _EAllusion »

Here's Art Robinson on the real cause of AIDS:

Cameron, et al report research results showing that the median age at death for homosexual men dying of AIDS is 39 years and that for homosexual men who do not die of AIDS is 42. By comparison, the value for heterosexual married men is 75. This is evidence in support of the hypothesis that AIDS may be little more than a general classification of deaths resulting from exposure to homosexual behavior.


Cameron's star has faded a bit, but many still might recognize this notorious claim that hate groups tend to be fond of citing.


That's the kind of smart, successful person who should be running the government in BCSpace's view.
_krose
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _krose »

EAllusion wrote:
Droopy wrote:various droopish nonsense...

False.

That pretty much sums it up.
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_Droopy
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _Droopy »

I mean they aren't scientists as in they aren't professionally practicing and educated scientists. Less than a third have Ph.D's. Fewer still hold a degree in a scientific field. Fewer still appear to actually be actively in practice. Do you think people with bachelor degrees in anthropology are scientists?


As I suspected, you didn't mean anyone who had advanced substantive training in scientific disciplines and who were knowledgeable, well read, and intellectually competent to understand the fundamental claims of AGW and critique them accordingly. You meant only a tiny cell of scientists with advanced degrees in an arcane, gnostic discipline that has come to be called "climate science" and which no one in the many other earth sciences that, together, comprise what could be called "climate science," and no one else having substantial training in core aspects of "climate science" (such as mathematics, statistics, computer science etc.) can penetrate.

This is all bosh, of course, and far, far more people are on to the game than were just ten or fifteen years ago.

and almost no one is in a field related to climatology.


Being a scientist generally, or less than that, doesn't give one much, if any expertise to discuss climate science and therefore their opinion carries little authoritative weight, which is what the petition is intended to convey.


Nonsense. Being trained in the scientific method (the theory and application of which does not vary from science to science), logical thought, close reasoning, and the intellectual processes of falsification and empirical verification through experiment and observation among multiple independent observers is all that is required to understand and critique the arguments and theories of others making theoretical claims - this and being well read and knowledgeable in the theory in question. Numerous people trained in mathematics, statistics, and computer science have, while not initially being expert in all the nuts and bolts of "climate science," been more than competent to expose the GCM's as the highly complex, highly sophisticated and wholly inadequate, vastly simplistic and empirically useless computer sims they are for the purposes for which they have been commandeered and then shown (along with thousands of revealing emails) Michael Mann to be an flat-footed scientific fraud. That didn't take any specific knowledge of "climate science," only the data, computer code, and algorithms which the "team" in England and Mann himself fought so virulently and bitterly to keep secret (along with the rest of their core data).

It is of little more value than you signing the petition. Having a masters in mechanical engineering and working on designing ventilation ducts does not, in fact, make you scientifically qualified to speak on the quality of climate system modeling.


No, it isn't, but it is also the case that climate system modeling is not doing atmospheric science, is not doing serious empirical science, is known to be effectively useless as a predictive tool in forecasting future, or past climate, ivolve computer programs that have never been validated by sufficient runs, and, comprising literally the entire evidential basis for the DAGW claim, have thoroughly failed along a number of empirical measures to support the claims made from them, including that fact that the 20th warming predicted by all the models and by the IPCC has not, in fact, occurred. The "hot spot" pointing to anthropogenic origins does not exist, 20th century warming is well within known historical variation, All climatic shifts in known geological time involve warming leading CO2 change, and the models completely missed the end of warming in 1995, its flattening from 2000 onwards, and the substantial cooling trend from about 2002 to the present.

Every major scientific organization composed of climate-related scientific fields endorses the view that the earth is warming due human activities


Yes, but substantial portions of their membership do not, and that's the key point. What you're talking about here are the public political and grant money motivated views of the managerial and fund-raising leadership of these institutions, not the bulk of their membership, which have registered substantial displeasure with the statements of the tiny minority among them within the administrations of these organizations.

and this is by far the prevailing view among climatologists.


Bosh. This has been thoroughly debunked for upwards of a decade (if not longer). While most scientists to believe (which, of itself, means nothing scientifically) that the earth has warmed due to human activities (AGW) nothing approaching a majority has ever believed that this warming is represents a serious danger (DAGW) to human life, let alone earth's ecosystems (which have survived and thrived through numerous swings in climate far in excess of anything predicted even by the IPCC's wildest estimates) or that it represents a catastrophic threat (CAGW).

You also dodge the primary point of your own hypocrisy here: the IPCC has has never been a scientific body at all, was not conceived as such, and in all likelihood never will be, and its vaunted 2,500 "scientists" were comprised mostly of either non-scientists, social scientists, or natural scientists wholly outside "climate science" or even related fields. The total, by your own credentialist standards, who were ever competent to pronounce on climate related matters? Oh, about 60 or so, who actively supported the alarmist claims of the IPCC and who were in a credentialed position to do so (and this can be reduced, on some chapters of the original IPCC report, such as chapter 9, to 5 who supported the overall conclusions of the chapter and could reasonable be represented as "climate" scientists).

For comparison, only 30 lead authors were actually involved in the 2007 SPM, and the now notorious SPM's were never anything but political documents meant for media consumption and always written after the fact by a small cell of true believers without input from the broader scientific population of the IPCC that had amassed and analyzed the original evidence. Interestingly, the original IPCC reports themselves were not that bad, and contained a number of key statements reflecting the substantial degree of tentativeness and uncertainty endemic to the subject itself. The political ideologues and politicized (and/or governmentally bought-and-paid-for) scientists within this body, however, are the one's who wrote the SPMs, controlled the public discourse, did all the media hounding, and ignored the warnings and circumspection of many of their colleagues.

Add to this the now well exposed politicization, group-think, in-group collusion and rampant confirmation bias, substantial lack of transparency, and Benjamin Santer, to the mix, and, well, the rest is Lysenkoist history.

Almost all research published in top tier journals supports this view.


In the first case, this is flatly false, depending upon which of the many allied sub-disciplines that make up the study of climate you mean, and secondly, the reason for that state of affairs has been long exposed and critically deconstructed for what it is. I'll leave you to do your own homework on that wise.

Perhaps here you'll say, "science isn't done by consensus" again, failing to distinguish yourself from a crude bot program, and misunderstanding the point.


More than likely, its that "social" scientists, given the nature and pretensions of their interests, simply don't understand the scientific method, or aren't particularly interested in the severe limitations and disciplines it imposes on the intersection of what one can know empirically about the world and ideology.

1. CAGW (DAGW) is dead as a serious scientific theory, which is saying a great deal because it never made it, empirically speaking, out of the hypothesis stage.


False.


Its been completely discredited and falsified as a hypothesis for at least a decade, along a number of dimensions, and even as a matter of pure theory, was questionable as far back as the early 1990s. The fact of the matter is that if you wean academia off of the tens of billions of government research grants that only pay for the "right" conclusions regarding global warming and upon which numerous scientific careers are now dependent, remove the traditional apocalyptic media hysteria and the opportunities of media hounding that attract the likes of Hansen and Mann, and demand that people move away from playing extremely sophisticated computer games and go back to doing actual empirical science, the theory would be, in essence, dead. End the oceans of federal research grant money for science with policy implications, and DAGW would evaporate overnight. As its never been an empirical, observationally or experimentally based theory, but is primarily a creation of the inputs and outputs of the GCMs, this is only to be expected.

3. Science is not done by consensus.

This comment in now way addresses the fact that the petition attempts to portray a level of dissent to create significance that does not actually exist.


You used the term, which means that either you don't understand what science and the scientific method really are, don't care, or have a personal belief system that requires they be ignored for "the cause."

Do you want to defend Art Robinson's HIV denialism next?


It interesting that, while you cannot (which places you in a large and distinguished company) mount an actual scientific defense of DAGW, on empirical scientific grounds, your entire argument here, from the "consensus" argumentum ad populum "don't question the experts" approach to your ad hominem circumstantial attacks on Robinson are nothing but a layered series of logical fallacies.

But of course, the entire edifice of AGW has been erected on that fundamental foundation for the last 20 years, so this is all to be expected.
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I am so old that I can remember when most of the people promoting race hate were white.

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_EAllusion
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _EAllusion »

I have a BS in cell biology and psychology. So, in Droopy's view, I'm a scientist? That's a nice promotion.
_Droopy
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _Droopy »

For comparison, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR$) continued the claim of a "consensus" among some 2,500 scientists, but had, in actuality, only 600 reviewers, and of these, only 308 actually commented on the SOR. A grand total of 32 commented on more than 3 chapters of the report, and only 5 commented on all 11 chapters. About half commented on more than one chapter.

As with the other assessment reports, IPCC editors often ignored, rejected, or downplayed many reviewers comments. I have no idea if, as with the first IPCC report, substantial portions of a key chapter were simply deleted and then rewritten (Ben Santer) to reflect the ideological needs of the IPCC and a small cabal of scientists with highly homogenous views who had worked closely with each other previously.

Did "hundreds" of "climate scientists" agree with the statement that “Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years"?

Well, no. Only 62 scientists actually reviewed chapter 9 in which this statement appears. But then, of all the comments received for these reviewers, almost 60% were rejected by the IPCC editors. But given that of these 62, 55 had a vested interest in the existence of DAGW, that leaves 7 impartial analysts.

As Mike Hulme has made clear, "Claims such as ‘2,500 of the world’s leading scientists have reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate’ are disingenuous. That particular consensus judgement, as are many others in the IPCC reports, is reached by only a few dozen experts in the specific field of detection and attribution studies."

Some 80% of the IPCC's membership (and if one goes to the IPCC''s own website, you can find the names and degrees of the various working group members - but not their credentials. The IPCC is very furtive about these) has no background in anything related to atmospheric science, a large number have no research science background at all, and of those who do have a relevant natural science background, only about 50 - 60 are actually credentialed in a way that would make them "experts" in climatology and climate related fields. This, plus the substantial use of the IPCC on non-peer reviewed literature, including unsubstantiated studies from environmental activist literature (some 30%), and the fundamentally political nature of the IPCC itself, have rendered the IPCC both scientifically irrelevant (and remember, it was never conceived as, nor has it ever functioned as, as scientific body, nor are the vast majority of its members qualified to assess or critique questions of global climate behavior, especially by your own stated standards) and, even more importantly, one of the leading dangers to liberty, freedom, civil, democratic society, and human life and well being on earth.

But then, so is the United Nations of which it is a tumorous extension.

The myth of consensus is precisely that, a myth, and one grounded in ideology and power, not science.
Nothing is going to startle us more when we pass through the veil to the other side than to realize how well we know our Father [in Heaven] and how familiar his face is to us

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I am so old that I can remember when most of the people promoting race hate were white.

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_Droopy
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _Droopy »

EAllusion wrote:I have a BS in cell biology and psychology. So, in Droopy's view, I'm a scientist? That's a nice promotion.



Nonetheless, your true-believer support of AGW, as well as your claims that scientific claims are fundamentally consensus (and not evidence) based, are indications that you really don't understand the scientific method at all, or, if you do, in the case of AGW, don't care.

You also appear very uninformed regarding the actual state of the science of AGW, as an empirical matter, a state of affairs which renders you in a bit "over your head" with anyone who actually does (hint: the GCM's don't, and cannot, tell us anything about global climate, either couple of weeks from now nor a century in the future, and running computer programs and then checking them against other computer program outputs, is not doing climate or any other kind of science. Nor is attempting to create an utterly unfalsifiable theory which accounts for literally all weather phenomena and observable climate behavior and which can never be discredited, falsified, or called into question by any weather or climate events, occurrences, or phenomena whatever - all such phenomena being evidence for the theory and compatible with it - is not doing science).
Nothing is going to startle us more when we pass through the veil to the other side than to realize how well we know our Father [in Heaven] and how familiar his face is to us

- President Ezra Taft Benson


I am so old that I can remember when most of the people promoting race hate were white.

- Thomas Sowell
_EAllusion
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Re: Democrats smear smart successful people who should be running

Post by _EAllusion »

Droopy wrote:
Nonetheless...


So is this you conceding that my assertion that most people on the list aren't scientists is true and your claim otherwise is false?

That's progress. V for victory. So much for the 31000 scientists then, eh?

You also appear very uninformed regarding the actual state of the science of AGW


I routinely read scientific journals on the subject. You do not, choosing instead to read largely right-wing websites. Humorously, you think this makes you informed.

This was established here:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6388&p=182235

and here:

http://www.mormondiscussions.com/phpBB3 ... f=5&t=6967

The first link has you referencing the Oregon petition too.

Happily, we can see your deep understanding of the science while you repeat easily refuted nonsense that comes from the the denialist community. You could play denialist canard bingo with those posts. Such is life. I don't know what to say, but you're wrong and some up in the night that you aren't worth addressing unless for the entertainment value.
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