Don't look now ...

[_Bob Loblaw]

But the race is pretty much tied.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1171.html

Remember a couple of weeks ago when they said Romney was so done the meat was falling off the bone?

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski ... ction-befo

It remains to be seen if Romney can take the lead in places like Ohio and Iowa, where he is still trailing. Barring something weird, I don't see him winning Ohio--and thus the election--but then I could be as wrong as people were a couple of weeks ago.

[_beastie]

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/0 ... #more-7096

Two bits of evidence suggest that Romney’s post-debate gains have come from inspiring partisan voters, as opposed to flipping nonpartisans. First, according to a recent PPP poll in Wisconsin, gains have come in the form of an increased enthusiasm among Republican voters – but not among independents. Second, the RAND survey, which tracks individual sentiment, does not show a massive wave of one-way mind-changing, which is what occurred after the Democratic convention.

If the Romney campaign can keep their supporters fired up, the Meta-Margin should settle where the race has been all season: near Obama +3%. This seems to be a “set point” where this year’s dynamics have naturally gravitated.

Of course, a lot can happen in the next four weeks. I think, given the divided state of the nation currently, any presidential election is going to be fairly close.

[_bcspace]

It remains to be seen if Romney can take the lead in places like Ohio and Iowa, where he is still trailing. Barring something weird, I don't see him winning Ohio--and thus the election--but then I could be as wrong as people were a couple of weeks ago.

Things can always change either way. But Romney was never out of it.

[_Bob Loblaw]

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/08/romney-inspires-the-faithful/#more-7096

Of course, a lot can happen in the next four weeks. I think, given the divided state of the nation currently, any presidential election is going to be fairly close.

I think it depends on who you talk to. The latest Battleground poll has a pretty big shift in support for Romney among independents. He's up 16 points on Obama among such voters. So it will probably go down to who does a better job of getting their voters to the polls. Obama still has a big advantage in the electoral college, so unless Romney can take a clear lead in some swing states, Obama is likely to prevail.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? ... 0DC67C16B1

[_Bob Loblaw]

The latest from Ohio shows a neck-amd-neck race. The RCP average in late September had Obama +6, and now it's Obama +1.7. Take out the one poll from late September, and it's dead even.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1860.html

And despite the attempts to make Big Bird a central issue, still the main story is how the debate shifted momentum in the race. We're even hearing that Biden is under a lot of pressure to destroy Ryan in the upcoming debate.

Like I said, I am glad we have a close campaign because it may cause both sides to talk about things they wouldn't have had the election gone where it looked like it was going, with Obama steadily widening his lead.

[_Bob Loblaw]

Romney is ahead in the RCP average for the first time ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1171.html

[_Bob Loblaw]

This is about the best analysis I've seen of recent trends in the campaign:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 15721.html

[_Brackite]

Romney is Leading Among Likely Voters Nationwide in the latest Gallup Poll.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romne ... oters.aspx


The latest two Polls from Florida show Romney leading there now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1883.html