Earth Abides

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http://notrickszone.com/2013/03/14/lead ... e-not-co2/

http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/ ... r-2013.pdf

Leading International Geologist Peter Ziegler: “Sun Is Driving Climate, Not CO2.”

By P Gosselin on 14. März 2013

Dr. Hans Labohm writes at the Dutch Standaard that one of the world’s leading geologists, Peter Ziegler of Switzerland, recently made a presentation on the factors driving climate. It’s not CO2, he said.

Ziegler-Ziegler family archive

Peter Ziegler. Photo from Ziegler family archives. GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version.

Labohm writes at the Dutch Standaard blog here that Arthur Rörsch and Peter Ziegler have been busy lately with the editors of a special issue of Energy & Environment, where a number of prominent climate skeptics are sharing their views on the factors that determine climate. This publication will be communicated to the members of the UN climate panel (IPCC) in due course.

Labohm then writes that Peter Ziegler has also recently completed a presentation based on peer-reviewed literature and current measurements, where he shows that the sun is mainly driving climate change, and not CO2.
The main points of the presentation, Labohm writes:

● Climate changed in response to natural processes that are active also at present, including variations in solar activity and the galactic cosmic ray [GCR] flux and ocean current oscillations.

● Changes in solar activity and temperature correlate closely.

● The temperature changes and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 33 years are at odds with the rapid Global Warming Concept of IPCC.

● Temperature forces atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and not vice-versa.

● During industrial Global Warming, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, anthropogenic emissions and temperature do not correlate.

● Early Global Warming coincided with a slight increase in CO2 emissions, while Global Cooling was paralleled by a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions from 4.0 Gt/year in 1942 to 20.0 Gt/year in 1975.

● During the negative PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] of 1942 to 1977 the World cooled, CO2 emissions increased 5-fold while atmospheric CO2 concentration accelerated sharply.

● During the positive PDO of 1977 to 2000 temperatures, CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose rapidly.

● Early Global Warming coincided with a slight increase in CO2 emissions, while Global Cooling was paralleled by a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions from 4.0 Gt/year in 1942 to 20.0 Gt/year in 1975.

● Water vapor and clouds cause 90-95% of the total greenhouse effect, CO2 4.2– 8.4% and methane, ozone, N2O, CH4, CFCs etc. about 1.3%.

● The temperature effect of the first 20 ppm of CO2 is far greater than of the next 400 ppm.

● The total industrial atmospheric CO2 increase caused a temperature rise of ±0.10°C.

● GCMs [General Circulation Models] assume that doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm will cause by outgoing IR blockage 1.1 C warming that is amplified by associated water–vapor related IR blockage, giving rise to a positive feedback of 2.1 C, resulting in a net temperature increase of 3.2 C.

● Observations show, however, that the combined water vapor, clouds and albedo feedback is with –0.8 C clearly negative and thus reduces the postulated net CO2 warming effect to 0.3 C.

● Since 1750 atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by about 35.5%. Of this about ⅓ is attributed to anthropogenic emissions and ⅔ to natural sources.

● δ13C-based and mass balance calculations suggest that about 30% of the current atmospheric CO2 are isotopically depleted with more than ⅔ originating from natural marine and biogenic sources and less than ⅓ from anthropogenic emissions.

● Variations in solar activity dominate climate change. Variations in GHG concentration and composition (water vapor, CO2) play a secondary role.

● GCM [General Circulation Models] neglect the PDO [Pacific Decadel Osccillation].

● The Modern Warm Period is not an anomaly but one in a sequence reflecting astronomically–controlled solar oscillations.

● 40% of the about 0.5 0C warming between 1715 and 1970 is accounted by direct solar forcing, the remainder by indirect solar forcing in which the GCR flux plays an important role.

● The sun with its planets, combined with the Galactic Cosmic Ray flux drive the Earth’s climate and not CO2, as professed by IPCC.

● The 20th Century Solar Grand Maximum of general warming that started in 1924 and ended 2008 will be followed by an episode of lower solar activity and notable cooling.

See Peter Ziegler’s pdf presentation here.

Hat-tip: http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/.


Peter Alfred Ziegler (Winterthur, November 2, 1928) is a Swiss geologist, who made important contributions to the understanding of the geological evolution of Europe and the North Atlantic borderlands, of intraplate tectonics and of plate tectonic controls on the evolution and hydrocarbon potential of sedimentary basins.

He is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences, the Polish Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and the Academia Europaea. He is a life member of the Bureau of the International Lithosphere Program and an honorary member of the Geological Society of London, the European Geosciences Union, the Geological Society of Poland and the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

At the occasion of his 80th birthday the Swiss Geological Society honoured Peter A. Ziegler with a symposium on the theme “Deep Earth – from Crust to Core”, held in Lugano, November 23d, 2008. Peter A. Ziegler is still active and regularly contributes to geosciences by reviewing papers and research proposals. It is the unending support by his wife Yvonne that has shaped his career. Hats off to her!

In 1992 Peter Ziegler was appointed as Honorary Lecturer at University of Basel and in 1996 as Titular Professor for Global Geology. He was awarded Honorary Doctor Degrees by the Moscow State University (1997) and the Technical University Delft (2001). He is recipient of the Foumarier medal of the Belgian Geological Society, the van Waterschot van der Gracht medal of the Royal Geological and Mining Society of the Netherlands, the William Smith medal of the Geological Society of London, the Neville George medal of the Geological Society of Glasgow, the Stephan Müller medal of the European Geosciences Union, the Leopold von Buch medal of the German Geological Society and the Leonidovici Kaptsa medal of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. From the American Association of Petroleum Geologists he received the Robert Dott sr. Memorial Award for the publication of his Memoir 43, and later the Special Commendation Award for his regional synthesis of the geological evolution of Europe and for being a lively catalyst of the dialogue among Earth Scientists.

[_Brackite]

From Science Daily:

Climate Sensitivity to Carbon Dioxide More Limited Than Extreme Projections, Research Shows

Nov. 25, 2011 — A new study suggests that the rate of global warming from doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be less than the most dire estimates of some previous studies -- and, in fact, may be less severe than projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 2007.

Authors of the study, which was funded by the National Science Foundation's Paleoclimate Program and published online this week in the journal Science, say that global warming is real and that increases in atmospheric CO2 will have multiple serious impacts.

However, the most Draconian projections of temperature increases from the doubling of CO2 are unlikely.

"Many previous climate sensitivity studies have looked at the past only from 1850 through today, and not fully integrated paleoclimate date, especially on a global scale," said Andreas Schmittner, an Oregon State University researcher and lead author on the Science article. "When you reconstruct sea and land surface temperatures from the peak of the last Ice Age 21,000 years ago -- which is referred to as the Last Glacial Maximum -- and compare it with climate model simulations of that period, you get a much different picture.

"If these paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, the results imply less probability of extreme climatic change than previously thought," Schmittner added.

Scientists have struggled for years trying to quantify "climate sensitivity" -- which is how Earth will respond to projected increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The 2007 IPCC report estimated that the air near the surface of Earth would warm on average by 2 to 4.5 degrees (Celsius) with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial standards. The mean, or "expected value" increase in the IPCC estimates was 3.0 degrees; most climate model studies use the doubling of CO2 as a basic index.

Some previous studies have claimed the impacts could be much more severe -- as much as 10 degrees or higher with a doubling of CO2 -- although these projections come with an acknowledged low probability. Studies based on data going back only to 1850 are affected by large uncertainties in the effects of dust and other small particles in the air that reflect sunlight and can influence clouds, known as "aerosol forcing," or by the absorption of heat by the oceans, the researchers say.

To lower the degree of uncertainty, Schmittner and his colleagues used a climate model with more data and found that there are constraints that preclude very high levels of climate sensitivity.

The researchers compiled land and ocean surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum and created a global map of those temperatures. During this time, atmospheric CO2 was about a third less than before the Industrial Revolution, and levels of methane and nitrous oxide were much lower. Because much of the northern latitudes were covered in ice and snow, sea levels were lower, the climate was drier (less precipitation), and there was more dust in the air.

All these factor, which contributed to cooling Earth's surface, were included in their climate model simulations.

The new data changed the assessment of climate models in many ways, said Schmittner, an associate professor in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. The researchers' reconstruction of temperatures has greater spatial coverage and showed less cooling during the Ice Age than most previous studies.

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