From ''Record Highs - Must Be Global Warming''

[_honorentheos]

I see your boss let you have the weekend off.

[_Bach]

I see your boss let you have the weekend off.

Please don’t derail my thread. Hope mods will comply by moving your response.

[_honorentheos]

Nice special treatment. But whatever. It's nice of your boss to give you some free time to mess around on the internet and post about how your 401k isn't down this year because it came out of a deep dip in December.

Here's a prediction for you, Bach. Today's pre Holiday jump will not make it past Fridays close. I'll tell you why, too. Friday's jobs report will have to walk a fine line of being good enough to make it clear the economy is healthy while not being so good the market begins to doubt their pricing in a Fed rate decrease will happen. I could be wrong, but I think the odds there's a 100 point drop or more are decent. Ironically, the better the jobs report, the more likely the Dow drops Friday. A bad report could send the Dow higher. But one of those moves is a correction while the other is increased speculation. That should be more meaningful to you than the record hit today.

[_canpakes]

I’m wondering why bach is crowing about what amounts to approximately a 2 percent increase for the S&P 500 over the past year, with no apparent reason for the poor performance outside of the current President’s trade and tariff shenanigans.

Is bach really that bad of an investor?

[_honorentheos]

Given there are pre-earnings warnings that financial expectations won't be met from the majority companies reporting quarterly earnings in July, you'd think a sophisticated investor would be more concerned with fundamentals. Maybe after a hard week slaving away for the boss man, Bach takes pleasure in imagining the high life he will live in retirement because Trump will turn Bach's 401k into a perpetual motion money making engine. He certainly reminds me of people I know who are close to retirement age and watching their funds like hawks.

[_honorentheos]

Interesting day. Good jobs report resulted in an initial 200 pt drop that clawed back to a relatively insignificant 17 pts down. It's looking less likely the Fed will lower rates but as always uncertainty seems to reign. Watching bonds, pessimism seems to be the long term view while the stock boom maintains near term enthusiasm.

But that's slightly complicated or at least not binary so let's just say whether the end of July will be met by a post crowing over highs by Bach or lows by Kevin Graham is up in the air. It will almost certainly hang on what the Fed does on July 31. Mark your calendars.

Before Bach or someone else says something dumb about the Fed, it tells you bthat underlying economic fundamentals are not as strong as the stock market performance. There are almost certainly going to be a wave of bad earnings reports this month, the trade talks with China are not moving to resolution any time soon, and we are showing a war footing towards Iran while reinforcing the message of Libya/North Korea that the best move for them is to pursue nuclear weapons. We may not realize how destabilizing the abandonment of the nuclear deal will prove to our ability to contain proliferation. Showing we can't be trusted while proving willing to negotiate with Kim as an equal is some of the worst political behavior possible for changing the dynamics of proliferation.