Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

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_honorentheos
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _honorentheos »

Chap wrote:My main interest in this thread and elsewhere has been the question of how the Senate committee, followed by the Senate, should have made a decision on Kavanaugh's nomination.

honorentheos wrote:There are reasons for not viewing Kavanaugh as trustworthy, as probably unfit to be a Supreme Court Justice in my opinion ...


But once we have established that the appropriate mode of judgement here is the precautionary principle ("Is it safe and prudent to make this man a Justice of the Supreme Court for life?") not the criminal trial mode of judgement ("Has this man been proved guilty of <whatever> beyond a reasonable doubt"), then an obvious decision follows for those who agree with that part of your statement just quoted. One does not have to be sure that he is unfit; it is enough to conclude that there is a significant probability that he is unfit - and if so, one should not take the risk of confirming him as Justice for the next forty years, with all that implies for his immense future influence on the lives liberty and property of US citizens

And indeed it seems from this thread that (even leaving Ford's testimony aside), there are some who think that Kavanaugh's reaction to the allegations made against him (rage, partisan political claims that the whole thing was motivated by 'the Cllintons' and so on) casts significant doubts on his fitness for the office proposed.

And it's not as if there are no alternative candidates, or that the vacancy has to be filled immediately: the Republicans were happy to wait a long time with one Justice short just so that they could block Obama's nominee for the bench.

I'm not caught up on the thread, so this may have been explored further and if so, I apologize. I agree when we are looking at Kavanaugh comprehensively. Where I have reservations is when it comes to the sexual assault accusations in isolation. I began my comments in support of cinepro's point about the degree of uncertainty there given the results of the FBI investigation and would limit my support to that aspect of the discussion. When it comes to Ford's accusations while I tend to be sympathetic it's impossible to overlook that there was zero corroboration of even such detail as another witness confirming Ford knew Kavanaugh before the event in question. When it comes to the accusations of sexual misconduct, the precautionary principle puts the greatest risk of unjustified harm on excluding him from consideration given the state of the evidence.
Last edited by Guest on Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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_honorentheos
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _honorentheos »

cinepro wrote:But if everyone, including Kavanaugh, said they remembered the gathering, that wouldn't "corroborate" the story of the sexual assault. It would just corroborate the story of the gathering, but we still wouldn't have any evidence for or against the assault other than Ford's accusation and Kavanaugh's and Judge's denials.

Hi cinepro,

While I remain supportive of your argument as the circumstances actually stand, I disagree regarding the above. Were the above to be true, it would corroborate significant aspects of her account. At that point, we would be dealing with testimony of a victim against two people who have reason to deny any wrong doing which is a significant incentive to lie. Where this the case, I would absolutely have expected the Senate to reject Kavanaugh's confirmation with a strong suspicion he was guilty of sexual misconduct. The fact she came forward with the allegations before his nomination with the majority of the events in her accusation supported by circumstantial evidence would weight quite heavily in her favor.

Where I get hung up is over the fact we are essentially left with only her testimony with multiple potential others able to provide some form of corroborating evidence yet failing to be able to do so, including those friendly to her. That becomes a sandy foundation on which to argue that a person should be treated as guilty of a serious accusation, even if we dance around the idea its not a criminal investigation. Accepting this as a standard from which anyone could be disqualified from any position is simply untenable, in my opinion.
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _honorentheos »

Kevin Graham wrote:
honorentheos wrote:Kavanaugh did not say he knew Ford. He said it was possible they met because they ran in overlapping social circles but he doesn't recall meeting her. That is not corroborating evidence.


It most certainly is corroborating evidence because it directly supports Ford's claim that when she "was 14 and 15 years old, my group of friends intersected with Brett and his friends for a short period of time." Kavanaugh corroborates her almost verbatim. You keep ignoring what the evidence actually corroborates and then focus on what it doesn't corroborate as if that changes the fact that plenty corroboration already exists.

You know what, Kevin? You're right and I need to walk this back a bit. This is certainly corroborative evidence of this aspect of her account. We have reason to believe that Kavanaugh and Ford both went to schools in the same geographical area and time period where they may have interacted socially at some point.

Ford's friend Leland Keyser doesn't just not remember the event. She doesn't remember knowing Kavanaugh.


Which is irrelevant since Ford never said Leland and Kavanaugh were friends. It is entirely plausible that she was there briefly and that she arrived with the unnamed "fourth boy" who wasn't upstairs with Judge and Kavanaugh.

True. But it leaves us with only Ford's testimony to support a few critical aspects of the account. Not least of which, and which I think we ought to have found support for if it were the case - that Ford knew Kavanaugh before the event in question in order to be reasonable in assuming she knew her attacker when the attack occurred. Right now, we have no reason other than her statement to believe she could be 100% certain it was Kavanaugh from knowing him rather than there being the potential that the identification was made after the fact with a margin for error. Unfortunate as it seems, that's where we are.

As you noted, Ford went out with (she was particular in avoiding the term dated) one of Kavanaugh's friends that summer. He was one of the persons interviewed by the FBI and whose testimony should be in the report Democrat Senators would have accessed prior to the confirmation. I don't know the details of his testimony as to my knowledge they haven't been made public but I would expect we'd have heard if his statements corroborated the story to any degree.


His Lawyers released a statement simply stating he has no recollection of anything relating to these allegations. So what? The only interesting thing about CHris Garrett is that we know Brett Kavanaugh was his friend and he omitted the fact that his friend was dating Christine Ford.

We don't have corroborating evidence from him. He's a person who could have corroborates aspects of her story but failed to do so.

So here's a fact: We don't actually know much at all. We suspect a lot, and emotions combined with one's subjective reaction unsurprisingly closely aligned with one's political position are doing the heavy lifting. That's a fact.


We know Kavanaugh and Judge were belligerent drunks. We know Kavanaugh is a compulsive liar. We know Kavanaugh is emotionally unhinged, even as an adult. And we have corroborating testimonies from dozens of other people who were not heard during the FBI's bogus inquiry.

I question that we know those things or that it's objective language to call the FBI's inquiry bogus but ok.

We're stepping away from the question of Kavanaugh sexually assaulting Ford when we move to Ramirez, and even more so with the Swetnick claims. Ramirez is a complicated story where she found it difficult to confirm who it was that was pulling up their pants and laughing.


Oh? Is that what you get from her statement: “Brett was laughing. I can still see his face, and his hips coming forward, like when you pull up your pants.” She also heard a guy scream "Brett Kavanaugh just put his penis is Debbie's face."

No, I got that from her statement that she didn't know for sure it was Kavanaugh and had to call other people to confirm her impression it was him after the news was pushing her to come forward.

Ramirez provided 20 witnesses who could corroborate her story and they questioned none of them. So when you complain about how little we actually "know" it isn't because there is nothing else to know, it is because Senate Republicans don't want more to be known.

The witnesses questioned were not able to confirm the account. That included the person who came forward and said he had heard it from another person who then denied having any recollection of this event. Could be they lied. But what you said is not accurately reflective of the state of the evidence.

So is Swetnick's claims that there was a culture of rape around the jocks that were Kavanaugh's social circle, and she was assaulted by someone not involved in the question of Kavanaugh's history.


You're not up to speed on what these women have actually said if you keep downplaying everything as hearsay. When Swetnick says, "I witnessed Brett Kavanaugh consistently engage in excessive drinking and inappropriate contact of a sexual nature with women during the early 1980s", that isn't hearsay, that's direct evidence that corroborates Ford's story.

"When Swetnick says"... is just that.

There are more corroborating witnesses who have yet to be named, but have provided sworn testimony for the Senate. Here is one example of a woman who knew both Ford and Swetnick and testified:

"I witnessed firsthand Brett Kavanaugh, together with others, spike the punch at house parties I attended with Quaaludes and/or grain alcohol. I understood this was being done for the purpose of making girls more likely to engage in sexual acts and less likely to say no."

And when they come forward we'll have that as evidence rather than hearsay.
Last edited by Guest on Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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_honorentheos
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _honorentheos »

Water Dog wrote:
Some Schmo wrote:Enjoy stewing in that idea.

Why do liberals always project themselves onto their opposition? I am interested in understanding the psychology behind this phenomena. In your mind do you actually imagine me to be "stewing?"

Interesting comment given the other discussion we had over your projecting onto liberals the promise of unrestrained sexual debauchery to lure kiddies into supporting the liberal worldview. Because if you could live your life over that is exactly what you wish to do with it apparently.
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _canpakes »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
canpakes wrote:I understand the argument. But I simply don’t see the appropriateness of needling to make that claim in front of the public, and in the way that he did in that setting. This was not the behavior I’d want to see a Judge exhibit even on a lower court, let alone Supreme Court.


Would you have supported his nomination had, say, the accusations and resultant behavior not occurred?

- Doc

I don’t favor him above all other candidates. I don’t prefer his record over Garland’s, as example. But absent the “accusations and resultant behavior” that did occur, I would have seen him as an acceptable choice even if I did not agree with all of his decisions.
_cinepro
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _cinepro »

honorentheos wrote:Senate to reject Kavanaugh's confirmation with a strong suspicion he was guilty of sexual misconduct. The fact she came forward with the allegations before his nomination with the majority of the events in her accusation supported by circumstantial evidence would weight quite heavily in her favor.


That's fair enough. Certainly, if the FBI came back and reported that the others named by Ford all remember a gathering that summer where there was lot of drinking in a house that matches that description, I would have raised my eyebrows and admitted that the possibility (probability?) of it having happened had shifted against Kavanaugh.

Since I already had reservations about his confirmation based on his testimony (and possible perjury), I would still agree with everyone who wished a better candidate had been chosen.
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _subgenius »

"I witnessed firsthand Brett Kavanaugh, together with others, spike the punch.


VS.

I understood this was being done for the purpose of making girls more likely to engage in sexual acts and less likely to say no."


honorentheos wrote:And when they come forward we'll have that as evidence rather than hearsay.


Those first 2 are 2 completely different statement with regards to corroboration. The first simply confirms punch spiking and the last is meaningless inasmuch as he is "assuming" motive for the punch spiking.

neither corroborates Dr Ford.
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Re: Kav's FBI "thorough" investigation = Lame Coverup

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

Some Schmo wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:09 am
honorentheos wrote:But yeah, we have to make a judgment call. My call is one I don't enjoy making but is based on accepting I can't reasonably point to a combination of evidence that I find sufficient to believe Kavanaugh attempted to assault Ford.
I can't help but weigh the respective motivations of both witnesses to lie about this incident. If someone is trying to convince me that her motivation to lie was bigger than his, all I can do is laugh. Does she strike you as an attention hound? Does she strike you as partisan? Did she look like a willing tool of the Democrats? Did she look like she was digging the limelight?

What she didn't show was just as important as what she did show. This is all evidence. It's not proof, but it's evidence. You've got to make a reasonable case for questioning her credibility if you're going to accept his.
Really?
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