Texas and Arizona

[_MeDotOrg]

What the Democrats need is a cross between Anne Richards and Molly Ivins.

I think the demographic time bomb is developing more slowly that most people thought it would. I don't see Texas turning blue until 2024 at the absolute earliest, assuming Trump doesn't go to war with Mexico in the interim.

[_DoubtingThomas]

I think the demographic time bomb is developing more slowly that most people thought it would. I don't see Texas turning blue until 2024 at the absolute earliest, assuming Trump doesn't go to war with Mexico in the interim.

2024 is less than a decade. Perhaps sooner if the GOP and Trump mess things up really bad.

[_DoubtingThomas]

We would need to see better data to see if there is a real trend toward democrats. I'm not American, but even I know that Bush had been Governor of Texas when he ran for President in 2000 and 2004. Should we not expect him to do better then other republican candidates who were not from Texas? And Trump was the worst candidate the Republicans could have picked.

"What’s remarkable about these changes isn’t just their size, but their resemblance to Trump’s 2016 margins. Trump won Texas in 2016 by 800,000 votes. He won Arizona by 90,000 votes. He won Georgia by 170,000 votes. If these states’ biggest metros continue to move left at the same rate, there is every reason to believe that Texas, Arizona, and Georgia could be toss-ups quite soon."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... op/598153/

[_Brackite]

Arizona is very likely going blue during this Presidential election. According to 538, Biden has a 67% chance of winning this state. Link
And now there is this:

A new survey released Monday morning shows Trump in deep trouble in Arizona. The survey, conducted by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading Trump by a 52 percent to 42 percent margin.

It is the eighth consecutive public poll that has showed the former vice president leading in Arizona, and Biden has led in 17 of the last 20 polls. A CBS News poll released Sunday showed Biden leading by a smaller 3-point margin, 47 percent to 44 percent.

OH Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan firm, has showed Biden leading Trump throughout the year, by between 4 and 10 points. In August, before either party convention, the firm found Biden ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. Biden's current lead comes in a survey sample in which Republicans outnumber Democrats by 5 percentage points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... -polls?amp