O c----
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The Demise of Polls
- Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The Demise of Polls
Hugh Nibley claimed he bumped into Adolf Hitler, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill, Gertrude Stein, and the Grand Duke Vladimir Romanoff. Dishonesty is baked into Mormonism.
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Re: The Demise of Polls
That is fair enough. I'd say that unfortunately all the modeling still requires good polling and we will forever be subject to this. I had hoped for 2016 to provide some course correction but that doesn't seem to have worked. Nate himself can be fairly dramatic and straight forward so I don't doubt if personally he sounded a little bullish on Biden (his personal politic leanings probably don't help with that). Fortunately results look like they will fall within the fat end of the distribution, which is what you are going for.canpakes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:58 pmXeno -
I’m thinking along the lines of margin of error. 538 seemed overly optimistic for my jaded senses when Nate was on an interview with Rick Wilson and Molly Jong-Fast on the New Abnormal podcast last week. This looks like much more of a squeaker than predicted and runs to the margins of ‘margin of error’. : ) But I haven’t taken a deep dive into their analysis; I’m just going off of his conversation. It may be that 538 ends up looking better than that sounded.
ETA: sorry, Xeno - it was an Ezra Klein podcast. Not enough sleep these busy days, lol.
He/Him
“If you consider what are called the virtues in mankind, you will find their growth is assisted by education and cultivation.”
― Xenophon
“If you consider what are called the virtues in mankind, you will find their growth is assisted by education and cultivation.”
― Xenophon
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Re: The Demise of Polls
F.I.F.Y.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
- Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The Demise of Polls
In case anyone doesn’t know this, Google has a nifty little tracker here:
https://www.google.com/search?q=current ... e&ie=UTF-8
- Doc
https://www.google.com/search?q=current ... e&ie=UTF-8
- Doc
Hugh Nibley claimed he bumped into Adolf Hitler, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill, Gertrude Stein, and the Grand Duke Vladimir Romanoff. Dishonesty is baked into Mormonism.
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Re: The Demise of Polls
That map shows the AP having called Arizona for Biden. I don't think it has. FYI, I'm using the Post's tracker, which is based on AP. https://www.washingtonpost.com/?reload= ... 4514515426Doctor CamNC4Me wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:27 pmIn case anyone doesn’t know this, Google has a nifty little tracker here:
https://www.google.com/search?q=current ... e&ie=UTF-8
- Doc
ETA: And using the 538 blog for updates. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2 ... -coverage/
he/him
When I go to sea, don’t fear for me. Fear for the storm.
Jessica Best, Fear for the Storm. From The Strange Case of the Starship Iris.
When I go to sea, don’t fear for me. Fear for the storm.
Jessica Best, Fear for the Storm. From The Strange Case of the Starship Iris.