Morley wrote:Nate Silver really has his act together, doing meta-analysis of polling data. Unfortunately the NYTimes cuts you off after ten hits a month to their site (which lasts me three to five days and is another story that I'm really not at all irritated about--no really I don't mind at all, grrr).
I liked the site a lot more when it was independent. He has branched out into television a bit and isn't as active on his blog/website.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Bond James Bond wrote: I liked the site a lot more when it was independent. He has branched out into television a bit and isn't as active on his blog/website.
Agree. It's not as good as before he sold himself to The Times. I hope he'll step up his game as the election season matures.
A handy image from Nate Silver showing the tipping point for Obama from 2008. As you can see Obama, since he only has to get to 278 votes, has quite a bit of leeway. The polls from swing states will be watched closely as we approach the election.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Since I am not a prophet I will just wait and see. But I think it does tilt towards Obama. But upsets have happened. Can you say Reagan and Carter? Carter was favored at this point by far.
Jason Bourne wrote:Since I am not a prophet I will just wait and see. But I think it does tilt towards Obama. But upsets have happened. Can you say Reagan and Carter? Carter was favored at this point by far.
I think Carter was a much weaker President though. For one thing he suffered from foreign policy criticism (Iran hostages) that Obama is largely clear of. In fact Obama has almost insulated himself from foreign policy criticism (except from the far-right where he's not getting votes anyway) by having bin Laden killed on his watch as well as putting America on the popular path out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Carter barely beat Gerald Ford in 1976 (who ran with the stigma of Nixon/Watergate as well as he had not been elected to the V.P post either) by 40 to 39 million popular votes. Carter couldn't sustain his narrow victory in the face of Reagan's campaign which steam rolled to a 489-49 victory.
Carter also only won 297 electoral votes to Obama's 365 so he far less room for error. Most importantly Ronald Reagan was one of the more charismatic people of the 20th century. Mitt Romney is one of the least charismatic people of the 21st century and has problems with personality and likability. A recent poll shows him with personal of only 35% percent like to 47% dislike, danger territory for Romney.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Sorry for being an ass. I posted right after a swig of Mike's hard lemonade. Argh!
Oh for shame, how the mortals put the blame on us gods, for they say evils come from us, but it is they, rather, who by their own recklessness win sorrow beyond what is given... Zeus (1178 BC)
Sorry for being an ass. I posted right after a swig of Mike's hard lemonade. Argh!
The only way to atone is to post your election prediction.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
I agree that the president has a big edge at this point, and that people who focus on the national polling are missing the point. The whole thing will hinge on a few states. If Romney doesn't win Florida I think he's toast. I also expect him to lose all his home states except Utah.
But as a supporter of his re-election, I am very worried about the hundreds of millions that will be poured into personal destruction ads. Romney's StupidPac carpet bombed Newt into oblivion in Florida, and the same for Santorum in Michigan, coming from behind. Of course, neither of these candidates had the money or the organization to fight back. Obama does. But now he will have the Koch brothers and Karl Rove adding their millions.
Also, you can't compare to Carter. It was this time of year that the hostage rescue disaster was taking place. And later on, Reagan handily won the debate, with his memorable "well, there you go again" catchphrase. He was also very likable, unlike Romney.
I like Nate Silver; he is the source for reliable predictions. I believe he's nailed it every time.
(By the way, Ham Rove himself has an electoral map on his site that shows Obama winning it.)
"The DNA of fictional populations appears to be the most susceptible to extinction." - Simon Southerton
krose wrote:(By the way, Ham Rove himself has an electoral map on his site that shows Obama winning it.)
I wonder if Rove and the Koch's might provide token (relatively speaking, probably tens of millions) support to Romney and instead focus considerable resources towards key Senate races as well as towards keeping the House. The past couple of years have shown that Obama can be neutralized as long as the Republicans control the House and have 41 warm bodies in the Senate.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Bond James Bond wrote:Here we are a few months away from the 2012 election. Remember folks that 270 votes out of 538 is required to win. I think Obama is going to win. The problem for Romney is that the electoral math doesn't add up for him. Here's my breakdown of the electoral votes:
